Limits of Earthquake Early Warning Accuracy and Best Alerting Strategy

We explore how accurate earthquake early warning (EEW) can be, given our limited ability to forecast expected shaking even if the earthquake source is known. Because of the strong variability of ground motion metrics, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV), we find that correct alerts (i.e., alerts that accurately estimate the ground motion will be above a predetermined damage threshold) are not expected to be the most common EEW outcome even when the earthquake magnitude and location are accurately determined. Infrequently, ground motion variability results in a user receiving a false alert because the ground motion turned out to be significantly smaller than the system expected. More commonly, users will experience missed alerts when the system does not issue an alert but the user experiences potentially damaging shaking. Despite these inherit limitations, EEW can significantly mitigate earthquake losses for false-alert-tolerant users who choose to receive alerts for expected ground motions much smaller than the level that could cause damage. Although this results in many false alerts (unnecessary alerts for earthquakes that do not produce damaging ground shaking), it minimizes the number of missed alerts and produces overall optimal performance

Yoongoorrookoo

Since the momentous release of the Montecristi Constitution of Ecuador in 2008, which recognised Nature, or Pacha Mama, as a subject of rights, the rights of Nature movement across the world has gained exponential momentum, with numerous jurisdictions worldwide now recognising some form of legal subjectivity vested upon Nature. In particular, since 2017, river personhood has dominated news headlines around the world as one of the most recognisable forms of Nature’s novel subjectivity. The emergence of legal personhood for nature, however, has been far from uncontroversial, and numerous critiques have been advanced against the use of such a legal category – traditionally applied to humans and their abstract creations (such as States and corporations) – to the natural world, resulting in numerous calls for an alternative category of legal personhood (one that some rights of Nature advocates have termed an ‘environmental person’). Against the backdrop of this emerging debate, this paper acknowledges the work undertaken by the Martuwarra Fitzroy River Council (Martuwarra Council), which was established in 2018 in the Kimberley region of Western Australia by six independent Indigenous nations to preserve, promote and protect their ancestral River from ongoing destructive ‘development’. The Council believes it is time to recognise the pre-existing and continuing legal authority of Indigenous law, or ‘First Law’, in relation to the River, in order to preserve its integrity through a process of legal decolonisation. First Law differs markedly from its colonial counterpart, as its principles are not articulated in terms of rules, policies and procedures, but rather through stories. This paper, therefore, begins with a dialogical translation of one First Law story relating to Yoongoorrookoo,1 the ancestral serpent being,2 to create a semantic bridge between two apparently distant legal worldviews. A dialogical comparative analysis is then followed to posit and explore the concept of an ‘ancestral person’ as a novel comparative tool that may be able not only to capture the idea of Nature as a legal subject, but also complex Indigenous worldviews that see Nature – in this case instantiated in the Martuwarra – as an ancestral being enmeshed in a relationship of interdependence and guardianship between the human and the nonhuman world. To instantiate and embody such relationships, the paper directly, and somewhat provocatively, acknowledges the River itself, the Martuwarra RiverOfLife, as the primary participant in such dialogue, an embodied non-human co-author who began a conversation then left to human writers to continue

Analysis of High-Risk Pedigrees Identifies 12 Candidate Variants for Alzheimer\u27s Disease

INTRODUCTION: Analysis of sequence data in high-risk pedigrees is a powerful approach to detect rare predisposition variants. METHODS: Rare, shared candidate predisposition variants were identified from exome sequencing 19 Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD)-affected cousin pairs selected from high-risk pedigrees. Variants were further prioritized by risk association in various external datasets. Candidate variants emerging from these analyses were tested for co-segregation to additional affected relatives of the original sequenced pedigree members. RESULTS: AD-affected high-risk cousin pairs contained 564 shared rare variants. Eleven variants spanning 10 genes were prioritized in external datasets: rs201665195 (ABCA7), and rs28933981 (TTR) were previously implicated in AD pathology; rs141402160 (NOTCH3) and rs140914494 (NOTCH3) were previously reported; rs200290640 (PIDD1) and rs199752248 (PIDD1) were present in more than one cousin pair; rs61729902 (SNAP91), rs140129800 (COX6A2, AC026471), and rs191804178 (MUC16) were not present in a longevity cohort; and rs148294193 (PELI3) and rs147599881 (FCHO1) approached significance from analysis of AD-related phenotypes. Three variants were validated via evidence of co-segregation to additional relatives (PELI3, ABCA7, and SNAP91). DISCUSSION: These analyses support ABCA7 and TTR as AD risk genes, expand on previously reported NOTCH3 variant identification, and prioritize seven additional candidate variants

Limits of Earthquake Early Warning Accuracy and Best Alerting Strategy

We explore how accurate earthquake early warning (EEW) can be, given our limited ability to forecast expected shaking even if the earthquake source is known. Because of the strong variability of ground motion metrics, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV), we find that correct alerts (i.e., alerts that accurately estimate the ground motion will be above a predetermined damage threshold) are not expected to be the most common EEW outcome even when the earthquake magnitude and location are accurately determined. Infrequently, ground motion variability results in a user receiving a false alert because the ground motion turned out to be significantly smaller than the system expected. More commonly, users will experience missed alerts when the system does not issue an alert but the user experiences potentially damaging shaking. Despite these inherit limitations, EEW can significantly mitigate earthquake losses for false-alert-tolerant users who choose to receive alerts for expected ground motions much smaller than the level that could cause damage. Although this results in many false alerts (unnecessary alerts for earthquakes that do not produce damaging ground shaking), it minimizes the number of missed alerts and produces overall optimal performance

Modifying modularity: aerobic exercise improves functional connectivity in breast cancer survivors

IntroductionAerobic exercise has been shown to improve cancer-associated cognitive decline (CACD) in breast cancer survivors (BCS), and recent findings suggest that one mechanism by which exercise may reduce cognitive decline is through alteration of the brain's functional organization. Many cognitive abilities and measures of functional brain organization change with age and disease, typically reflected in cognitive decline and reduced differentiation of brain networks, or “modularity.” Although previous research has identified associations between lifestyle interventions, such as exercise, and increased modularity, no studies have examined these relationships in cancer populations. The primary aim of this study was to investigate the preliminary effects of a 12-week aerobic exercise program on changes in brain network modularity in BCS. As a secondary aim, we explored correlations between changes in modularity with moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and cognitive function. Data were exploratory and used for hypothesis generation for a future, larger study.MethodsParticipants included a subsample of 10 BCS (M age = 65.9 ± 9.3 years) from a larger pilot study (N = 30 BCS) who were randomized to a 12-week aerobic exercise program (AE) or usual care (UC). The present study collected brain magnetic resonance imaging, Actigraph accelerometry, and cognitive task performance at baseline and 3-month follow-up (i.e., post-intervention; n = 4 AE, n = 6 UC). Intervention effects on modularity, MVPA, and cognition were quantified as magnitude of change between groups (Cohen's d). Changes in modularity were further explored via paired t-tests within groups. Associations between changes in modularity, MVPA, and cognitive performance were explored using Spearman's correlations.ResultsThe magnitude of changes in modularity between groups were small-to-moderate and favored the AE group (d = 0.23 to d = 0.67 across thresholds). Paired t-tests revealed a significant increase in modularity in the AE group from baseline to 3-month follow-up (t = 3.08, p = 0.03, d = 1.17), but not in the UC group. The correlation between changes in MVPA and changes in modularity were not statistically significant (r = 0.36, p = 0.39), and correlations between modularity and cognitive performance yielded mixed effects by cognitive domain.DiscussionFindings suggest that aerobic exercise may influence functional brain network organization and cognition in BCS. These data warrant further investigation in larger exercise trials

High sensitivity measurements of the CMB power spectrum with the extended Very Small Array

We present deep Ka-band ($\nu \approx 33$ GHz) observations of the CMB made with the extended Very Small Array (VSA). This configuration produces a naturally weighted synthesized FWHM beamwidth of $\sim 11$ arcmin which covers an $\ell$-range of 300 to 1500. On these scales, foreground extragalactic sources can be a major source of contamination to the CMB anisotropy. This problem has been alleviated by identifying sources at 15 GHz with the Ryle Telescope and then monitoring these sources at 33 GHz using a single baseline interferometer co-located with the VSA. Sources with flux densities \gtsim 20 mJy at 33 GHz are subtracted from the data. In addition, we calculate a statistical correction for the small residual contribution from weaker sources that are below the detection limit of the survey. The CMB power spectrum corrected for Galactic foregrounds and extragalactic point sources is presented. A total $\ell$-range of 150-1500 is achieved by combining the complete extended array data with earlier VSA data in a compact configuration. Our resolution of $\Delta \ell \approx 60$ allows the first 3 acoustic peaks to be clearly delineated. The is achieved by using mosaiced observations in 7 regions covering a total area of 82 sq. degrees. There is good agreement with WMAP data up to $\ell=700$ where WMAP data run out of resolution. For higher $\ell$-values out to $\ell = 1500$, the agreement in power spectrum amplitudes with other experiments is also very good despite differences in frequency and observing technique.Comment: 16 pages. Accepted in MNRAS (minor revisions

The role of the prostate cancer gene 3 urine test in addition to serum prostate-specific antigen level in prostate cancer screening among breast cancer, early-onset gene mutation carriers

Objective: To evaluate the additive value of the prostate cancer gene 3 (PCA3) urine test to serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) in prostate cancer (PC) screening among breast cancer, early-onset gene (BRCA) mutation carriers. This study was performed among the Dutch participants of IMPACT, a large international study on the effectiveness of PSA screening among BRCA mutation carriers. Materials and methods: Urinary PCA3 was measured in 191 BRCA1 mutation carriers, 75 BRCA2 mutation carriers, and 308 noncarriers. The physicians and participants were blinded for the results. Serum PSA level≥3.0. ng/ml was used to indicate prostate biopsies. PCA3 was evaluated (1) as an independent indicator for prostate biopsies and (2) as an indicator for prostate biopsies among men with an elevated

Early childhood epilepsies:epidemiology, classification, aetiology, and socio-economic determinants

Epilepsies of early childhood are frequently resistant to therapy and often associated with cognitive and behavioural comorbidity. Aetiology focused precision medicine, notably gene-based therapies, may prevent seizures and comorbidities. Epidemiological data utilizing modern diagnostic techniques including whole genome sequencing and neuroimaging can inform diagnostic strategies and therapeutic trials. We present a 3-year, multicentre prospective cohort study, involving all children under 3 years of age in Scotland presenting with epilepsies. We used two independent sources for case identification: clinical reporting and EEG record review. Capture-recapture methodology was then used to improve the accuracy of incidence estimates. Socio-demographic and clinical details were obtained at presentation, and 24 months later. Children were extensively investigated for aetiology. Whole genome sequencing was offered for all patients with drug-resistant epilepsy for whom no aetiology could yet be identified. Multivariate logistic regression modelling was used to determine associations between clinical features, aetiology, and outcome. Three hundred and ninety children were recruited over 3 years. The adjusted incidence of epilepsies presenting in the first 3 years of life was 239 per 100 000 live births [95% confidence interval (CI) 216–263]. There was a socio-economic gradient to incidence, with a significantly higher incidence in the most deprived quintile (301 per 100 000 live births, 95% CI 251–357) compared with the least deprived quintile (182 per 100 000 live births, 95% CI 139–233), χ2 odds ratio = 1.7 (95% CI 1.3–2.2). The relationship between deprivation and incidence was only observed in the group without identified aetiology, suggesting that populations living in higher deprivation areas have greater multifactorial risk for epilepsy. Aetiology was determined in 54% of children, and epilepsy syndrome was classified in 54%. Thirty-one per cent had an identified genetic cause for their epilepsy. We present novel data on the aetiological spectrum of the most commonly presenting epilepsies of early childhood. Twenty-four months after presentation, 36% of children had drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE), and 49% had global developmental delay (GDD). Identification of an aetiology was the strongest determinant of both DRE and GDD. Aetiology was determined in 82% of those with DRE, and 75% of those with GDD. In young children with epilepsy, genetic testing should be prioritized as it has the highest yield of any investigation and is most likely to inform precision therapy and prognosis. Epilepsies in early childhood are 30% more common than previously reported. Epilepsies of undetermined aetiology present more frequently in deprived communities. This likely reflects increased multifactorial risk within these populations