Validity and reliability of the Structured Clinical Interview for Depersonalization-Derealization Spectrum (SCI-DER).

This study evaluates the validity and reliability of a new instrument developed to assess symptoms of depresonalization: the Structured Clinical Interview for the Depersonalization-Derealization Spectrum (SCI-DER). The instrument is based on a spectrum model that emphasizes soft-signs, sub-threshold syndromes as well as clinical and subsyndromal manifestations. Items of the interview include, in addition to DSM-IV criteria for depersonalization, a number of features derived from clinical experience and from a review of phenomenological descriptions. Study participants included 258 consecutive patients with mood and anxiety disorders, 16.7% bipolar I disorder, 18.6% bipolar II disorder, 32.9% major depression, 22.1% panic disorder, 4.7% obsessive compulsive disorder, and 1.5% generalized anxiety disorder; 2.7% patients were also diagnosed with depersonalization disorder. A comparison group of 42 unselected controls was enrolled at the same site. The SCI-DER showed excellent reliability and good concurrent validity with the Dissociative Experiences Scale. It significantly discriminated subjects with any diagnosis of mood and anxiety disorders from controls and subjects with depersonalization disorder from controls. The hypothesized structure of the instrument was confirmed empirically

Forecasting realized volatility using a nonnegative semiparametric model

This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible semiparametric model to forecast financial volatility. The new model extends a related linear nonnegative autoregressive model previously used in the volatility literature by way of a power transformation. It is semiparametric in the sense that the distributional and functional form of its error component is partially unspecified. The statistical properties of the model are discussed and a novel estimation method is proposed. Simulation studies validate the new method and suggest that it works reasonably well in finite samples. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the proposed model is evaluated against a number of standard models, using data on S&P 500 monthly realized volatilities. Some commonly used loss functions are employed to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the alternative models. It is found that the new model generally generates highly competitive forecasts

Ancient DNA reveals admixture history and endogamy in the prehistoric Aegean (advance online)

The Neolithic and Bronze Ages were highly transformative periods forthe genetic history of Europe but for the Aegean—a region fundamentalto Europe’s prehistory—the biological dimensions of cultural transitionshave been elucidated only to a limited extent so far. We have analysed newlygenerated genome-wide data from 102 ancient individuals from Crete, theGreek mainland and the Aegean Islands, spanning from the Neolithic tothe Iron Age. We found that the early farmers from Crete shared the sameancestry as other contemporaneous Neolithic Aegeans. In contrast, the endof the Neolithic period and the following Early Bronze Age were marked by‘eastern’ gene flow, which was predominantly of Anatolian origin in Crete.Confirming previous findings for additional Central/Eastern Europeanancestry in the Greek mainland by the Middle Bronze Age, we additionallyshow that such genetic signatures appeared in Crete gradually from theseventeenth to twelfth centuries bc, a period when the influence of themainland over the island intensified. Biological and cultural connectednesswithin the Aegean is also supported by the finding of consanguineousendogamy practiced at high frequencies, unprecedented in the globalancient DNA record. Our results highlight the potential of archaeogenomicapproaches in the Aegean for unravelling the interplay of genetic admixture,marital and other cultural practice

Colorectal Cancer Stage at Diagnosis Before vs During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy

IMPORTANCE Delays in screening programs and the reluctance of patients to seek medical attention because of the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 could be associated with the risk of more advanced colorectal cancers at diagnosis. OBJECTIVE To evaluate whether the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was associated with more advanced oncologic stage and change in clinical presentation for patients with colorectal cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This retrospective, multicenter cohort study included all 17 938 adult patients who underwent surgery for colorectal cancer from March 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021 (pandemic period), and from January 1, 2018, to February 29, 2020 (prepandemic period), in 81 participating centers in Italy, including tertiary centers and community hospitals. Follow-up was 30 days from surgery. EXPOSURES Any type of surgical procedure for colorectal cancer, including explorative surgery, palliative procedures, and atypical or segmental resections. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was advanced stage of colorectal cancer at diagnosis. Secondary outcomes were distant metastasis, T4 stage, aggressive biology (defined as cancer with at least 1 of the following characteristics: signet ring cells, mucinous tumor, budding, lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion, and lymphangitis), stenotic lesion, emergency surgery, and palliative surgery. The independent association between the pandemic period and the outcomes was assessed using multivariate random-effects logistic regression, with hospital as the cluster variable. RESULTS A total of 17 938 patients (10 007 men [55.8%]; mean [SD] age, 70.6 [12.2] years) underwent surgery for colorectal cancer: 7796 (43.5%) during the pandemic period and 10 142 (56.5%) during the prepandemic period. Logistic regression indicated that the pandemic period was significantly associated with an increased rate of advanced-stage colorectal cancer (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95%CI, 1.01-1.13; P = .03), aggressive biology (OR, 1.32; 95%CI, 1.15-1.53; P < .001), and stenotic lesions (OR, 1.15; 95%CI, 1.01-1.31; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This cohort study suggests a significant association between the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and the risk of a more advanced oncologic stage at diagnosis among patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer and might indicate a potential reduction of survival for these patients

A practical guide to harnessing the HAR volatility model

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