Modeling the epidemiological impact of the UNAIDS 2025 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030

Background: UNAIDS has established new program targets for 2025 to achieve the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This study reports on efforts to use mathematical models to estimate the impact of achieving those targets. // Methods and findings: We simulated the impact of achieving the targets at country level using the Goals model, a mathematical simulation model of HIV epidemic dynamics that includes the impact of prevention and treatment interventions. For 77 high-burden countries, we fit the model to surveillance and survey data for 1970 to 2020 and then projected the impact of achieving the targets for the period 2019 to 2030. Results from these 77 countries were extrapolated to produce estimates for 96 others. Goals model results were checked by comparing against projections done with the Optima HIV model and the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) for selected countries. We included estimates of the impact of societal enablers (access to justice and law reform, stigma and discrimination elimination, and gender equality) and the impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results show that achieving the 2025 targets would reduce new annual infections by 83% (71% to 86% across regions) and AIDS-related deaths by 78% (67% to 81% across regions) by 2025 compared to 2010. Lack of progress on societal enablers could endanger these achievements and result in as many as 2.6 million (44%) cumulative additional new HIV infections and 440,000 (54%) more AIDS-related deaths between 2020 and 2030 compared to full achievement of all targets. COVID-19–related disruptions could increase new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 10% in the next 2 years, but targets could still be achieved by 2025. Study limitations include the reliance on self-reports for most data on behaviors, the use of intervention effect sizes from published studies that may overstate intervention impacts outside of controlled study settings, and the use of proxy countries to estimate the impact in countries with fewer than 4,000 annual HIV infections. // Conclusions: The new targets for 2025 build on the progress made since 2010 and represent ambitious short-term goals. Achieving these targets would bring us close to the goals of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% between 2010 and 2030. By 2025, global new infections and AIDS deaths would drop to 4.4 and 3.9 per 100,000 population, and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) would be declining. There would be 32 million people on treatment, and they would need continuing support for their lifetime. Incidence for the total global population would be below 0.15% everywhere. The number of PLHIV would start declining by 2023

Prioritizing single-nucleotide variations that potentially regulate alternative splicing

Recent evidence suggests that many complex diseases are caused by genetic variations that play regulatory roles in controlling gene expression. Most genetic studies focus on nonsynonymous variations that can alter the amino acid composition of a protein and are therefore believed to have the highest impact on phenotype. Synonymous variations, however, can also play important roles in disease pathogenesis by regulating pre-mRNA processing and translational control. In this study, we systematically survey the effects of single-nucleotide variations (SNVs) on binding affinity of RNA-binding proteins (RBPs). Among the 10,113 synonymous SNVs identified in 697 individuals in the 1,000 Genomes Project and distributed by Genetic Analysis Workshop 17 (GAW17), we identified 182 variations located in alternatively spliced exons that can significantly change the binding affinity of nine RBPs whose binding preferences on 7-mer RNA sequences were previously reported. We found that the minor allele frequencies of these variations are similar to those of nonsynonymous SNVs, suggesting that they are in fact functional. We propose a workflow to identify phenotype-associated regulatory SNVs that might affect alternative splicing from exome-sequencing-derived genetic variations. Based on the affecting SNVs on the quantitative traits simulated in GAW17, we further identified two and four functional SNVs that are predicted to be involved in alternative splicing regulation in traits Q1 and Q2, respectively

A perspective on the measurement of time in plant disease epidemiology

The growth and development of plant pathogens and their hosts generally respond strongly to the temperature of their environment. However, most studies of plant pathology record pathogen/host measurements against physical time (e.g. hours or days) rather than thermal time (e.g. degree-days or degree-hours). This confounds the comparison of epidemiological measurements across experiments and limits the value of the scientific literature

A highly attenuated recombinant human respiratory syncytial virus lacking the G protein induces long-lasting protection in cotton rats

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a primary cause of serious lower respiratory tract illness for which there is still no safe and effective vaccine available. Using reverse genetics, recombinant (r)RSV and an rRSV lacking the G gene (ΔG) were constructed based on a clinical RSV isolate (strain 98-25147-X).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Growth of both recombinant viruses was equivalent to that of wild type virus in Vero cells, but was reduced in human epithelial cells like Hep-2. Replication in cotton rat lungs could not be detected for ΔG, while rRSV was 100-fold attenuated compared to wild type virus. Upon single dose intranasal administration in cotton rats, both recombinant viruses developed high levels of neutralizing antibodies and conferred comparable long-lasting protection against RSV challenge; protection against replication in the lungs lasted at least 147 days and protection against pulmonary inflammation lasted at least 75 days.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Collectively, the data indicate that a single dose immunization with the highly attenuated ΔG as well as the attenuated rRSV conferred long term protection in the cotton rat against subsequent RSV challenge, without inducing vaccine enhanced pathology. Since ΔG is not likely to revert to a less attenuated phenotype, we plan to evaluate this deletion mutant further and to investigate its potential as a vaccine candidate against RSV infection.</p

A bacterial glycan core linked to surface (S)-layer proteins modulates host immunity through Th17 suppression

Tannerella forsythia is a pathogen implicated in periodontitis, an inflammatory disease of the tooth-supporting tissues often leading to tooth loss. This key periodontal pathogen is decorated with a unique glycan core O-glycosidically linked to the bacterium's proteinaceous surface (S)-layer lattice and other glycoproteins. Herein, we show that the terminal motif of this glycan core acts to modulate dendritic cell effector functions to suppress T-helper (Th)17 responses. In contrast to the wild-type bacterial strain, infection with a mutant strain lacking the complete S-layer glycan core induced robust Th17 and reduced periodontal bone loss in mice. Our findings demonstrate that surface glycosylation of this pathogen may act to ensure its persistence in the host likely through suppression of Th17 responses. In addition, our data suggest that the bacterium then induces the Toll-like receptor 2–Th2 inflammatory axis that has previously been shown to cause bone destruction. Our study provides a biological basis for pathogenesis and opens opportunities in exploiting bacterial glycans as therapeutic targets against periodontitis and a range of other infectious diseases

Evidence-Based African First Aid Guidelines and Training Materials

Stijn Van de Velde and colleagues describe the African First Aid Materials project, which developed evidence-based guidelines on administering first aid in the African context as well as training materials to support the implementation of the guidelines

Diffractive Dijet Production at sqrt(s)=630 and 1800 GeV at the Fermilab Tevatron

We report a measurement of the diffractive structure function $F_{jj}^D$ of the antiproton obtained from a study of dijet events produced in association with a leading antiproton in $\bar pp$ collisions at $\sqrt s=630$ GeV at the Fermilab Tevatron. The ratio of $F_{jj}^D$ at $\sqrt s=630$ GeV to $F_{jj}^D$ obtained from a similar measurement at $\sqrt s=1800$ GeV is compared with expectations from QCD factorization and with theoretical predictions. We also report a measurement of the $\xi$ ($x$-Pomeron) and $\beta$ ($x$ of parton in Pomeron) dependence of $F_{jj}^D$ at $\sqrt s=1800$ GeV. In the region $0.035<\xi<0.095$, $|t|<1$ GeV$^2$ and $\beta<0.5$, $F_{jj}^D(\beta,\xi)$ is found to be of the form $\beta^{-1.0\pm 0.1} \xi^{-0.9\pm 0.1}$, which obeys $\beta$-$\xi$ factorization.Comment: LaTeX, 9 pages, Submitted to Phys. Rev. Letter

A Study of B0 -> J/psi K(*)0 pi+ pi- Decays with the Collider Detector at Fermilab

We report a study of the decays B0 -> J/psi K(*)0 pi+ pi-, which involve the creation of a u u-bar or d d-bar quark pair in addition to a b-bar -> c-bar(c s-bar) decay. The data sample consists of 110 1/pb of p p-bar collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.8 TeV collected by the CDF detector at the Fermilab Tevatron collider during 1992-1995. We measure the branching ratios to be BR(B0 -> J/psi K*0 pi+ pi-) = (8.0 +- 2.2 +- 1.5) * 10^{-4} and BR(B0 -> J/psi K0 pi+ pi-) = (1.1 +- 0.4 +- 0.2) * 10^{-3}. Contributions to these decays are seen from psi(2S) K(*)0, J/psi K0 rho0, J/psi K*+ pi-, and J/psi K1(1270)

Short Telomeres Initiate Telomere Recombination in Primary and Tumor Cells

Human tumors that lack telomerase maintain telomeres by alternative lengthening mechanisms. Tumors can also form in telomerase-deficient mice; however, the genetic mechanism responsible for tumor growth without telomerase is unknown. In yeast, several different recombination pathways maintain telomeres in the absence of telomerase—some result in telomere maintenance with minimal effects on telomere length. To examine non-telomerase mechanisms for telomere maintenance in mammalian cells, we used primary cells and lymphomas from telomerase-deficient mice (mTR−/− and Eμmyc+mTR−/−) and CAST/EiJ mouse embryonic fibroblast cells. These cells were analyzed using pq-ratio analysis, telomere length distribution outliers, CO-FISH, Q-FISH, and multicolor FISH to detect subtelomeric recombination. Telomere length was maintained during long-term growth in vivo and in vitro. Long telomeres, characteristic of human ALT cells, were not observed in either late passage or mTR−/− tumor cells; instead, we observed only minimal changes in telomere length. Telomere length variation and subtelomeric recombination were frequent in cells with short telomeres, indicating that length maintenance is due to telomeric recombination. We also detected telomere length changes in primary mTR−/− cells that had short telomeres. Using mouse mTR+/− and human hTERT+/− primary cells with short telomeres, we found frequent length changes indicative of recombination. We conclude that telomere maintenance by non-telomerase mechanisms, including recombination, occurs in primary cells and is initiated by short telomeres, even in the presence of telomerase. Most intriguing, our data indicate that some non-telomerase telomere maintenance mechanisms occur without a significant increase in telomere length