Invasion speeds for structured populations in fluctuating environments

We live in a time where climate models predict future increases in environmental variability and biological invasions are becoming increasingly frequent. A key to developing effective responses to biological invasions in increasingly variable environments will be estimates of their rates of spatial spread and the associated uncertainty of these estimates. Using stochastic, stage-structured, integro-difference equation models, we show analytically that invasion speeds are asymptotically normally distributed with a variance that decreases in time. We apply our methods to a simple juvenile-adult model with stochastic variation in reproduction and an illustrative example with published data for the perennial herb, \emph{Calathea ovandensis}. These examples buttressed by additional analysis reveal that increased variability in vital rates simultaneously slow down invasions yet generate greater uncertainty about rates of spatial spread. Moreover, while temporal autocorrelations in vital rates inflate variability in invasion speeds, the effect of these autocorrelations on the average invasion speed can be positive or negative depending on life history traits and how well vital rates ``remember'' the past

Effects of Sample Size on Estimates of Population Growth Rates Calculated with Matrix Models

BACKGROUND: Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities

Advances in estimation by the item sum technique using auxiliary information in complex surveys

To collect sensitive data, survey statisticians have designed many strategies to reduce nonresponse rates and social desirability response bias. In recent years, the item count technique (ICT) has gained considerable popularity and credibility as an alternative mode of indirect questioning survey, and several variants of this technique have been proposed as new needs and challenges arise. The item sum technique (IST), which was introduced by Chaudhuri and Christofides (2013) and Trappmann et al. (2014), is one such variant, used to estimate the mean of a sensitive quantitative variable. In this approach, sampled units are asked to respond to a two-list of items containing a sensitive question related to the study variable and various innocuous, nonsensitive, questions. To the best of our knowledge, very few theoretical and applied papers have addressed the IST. In this article, therefore, we present certain methodological advances as a contribution to appraising the use of the IST in real-world surveys. In particular, we employ a generic sampling design to examine the problem of how to improve the estimates of the sensitive mean when auxiliary information on the population under study is available and is used at the design and estimation stages. A Horvitz-Thompson type estimator and a calibration type estimator are proposed and their efficiency is evaluated by means of an extensive simulation study. Using simulation experiments, we show that estimates obtained by the IST are nearly equivalent to those obtained using “true data” and that in general they outperform the estimates provided by a competitive randomized response method. Moreover, the variance estimation may be considered satisfactory. These results open up new perspectives for academics, researchers and survey practitioners, and could justify the use of the IST as a valid alternative to traditional direct questioning survey modes.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad of SpainMinisterio de Educacion, Cultura y Deporteproject PRIN-SURWE

A TRPV Channel Modulates C. elegans Neurosecretion, Larval Starvation Survival, and Adult Lifespan

For most organisms, food is only intermittently available; therefore, molecular mechanisms that couple sensation of nutrient availability to growth and development are critical for survival. These mechanisms, however, remain poorly defined. In the absence of nutrients, newly hatched first larval (L1) stage Caenorhabditis elegans halt development and survive in this state for several weeks. We isolated mutations in unc-31, encoding a calcium-activated regulator of neural dense-core vesicle release, which conferred enhanced starvation survival. This extended survival was reminiscent of that seen in daf-2 insulin-signaling deficient mutants and was ultimately dependent on daf-16, which encodes a FOXO transcription factor whose activity is inhibited by insulin signaling. While insulin signaling modulates metabolism, adult lifespan, and dauer formation, insulin-independent mechanisms that also regulate these processes did not promote starvation survival, indicating that regulation of starvation survival is a distinct program. Cell-specific rescue experiments identified a small subset of primary sensory neurons where unc-31 reconstitution modulated starvation survival, suggesting that these neurons mediate perception of food availability. We found that OCR-2, a transient receptor potential vanilloid (TRPV) channel that localizes to the cilia of this subset of neurons, regulates peptide-hormone secretion and L1 starvation survival. Moreover, inactivation of ocr-2 caused a significant extension in adult lifespan. These findings indicate that TRPV channels, which mediate sensation of diverse noxious, thermal, osmotic, and mechanical stimuli, couple nutrient availability to larval starvation survival and adult lifespan through modulation of neural dense-core vesicle secretion

Transcriptional control in the prereplicative phase of T4 development

Control of transcription is crucial for correct gene expression and orderly development. For many years, bacteriophage T4 has provided a simple model system to investigate mechanisms that regulate this process. Development of T4 requires the transcription of early, middle and late RNAs. Because T4 does not encode its own RNA polymerase, it must redirect the polymerase of its host, E. coli, to the correct class of genes at the correct time. T4 accomplishes this through the action of phage-encoded factors. Here I review recent studies investigating the transcription of T4 prereplicative genes, which are expressed as early and middle transcripts. Early RNAs are generated immediately after infection from T4 promoters that contain excellent recognition sequences for host polymerase. Consequently, the early promoters compete extremely well with host promoters for the available polymerase. T4 early promoter activity is further enhanced by the action of the T4 Alt protein, a component of the phage head that is injected into E. coli along with the phage DNA. Alt modifies Arg265 on one of the two α subunits of RNA polymerase. Although work with host promoters predicts that this modification should decrease promoter activity, transcription from some T4 early promoters increases when RNA polymerase is modified by Alt. Transcription of T4 middle genes begins about 1 minute after infection and proceeds by two pathways: 1) extension of early transcripts into downstream middle genes and 2) activation of T4 middle promoters through a process called sigma appropriation. In this activation, the T4 co-activator AsiA binds to Region 4 of σ70, the specificity subunit of RNA polymerase. This binding dramatically remodels this portion of σ70, which then allows the T4 activator MotA to also interact with σ70. In addition, AsiA restructuring of σ70 prevents Region 4 from forming its normal contacts with the -35 region of promoter DNA, which in turn allows MotA to interact with its DNA binding site, a MotA box, centered at the -30 region of middle promoter DNA. T4 sigma appropriation reveals how a specific domain within RNA polymerase can be remolded and then exploited to alter promoter specificity

Deconstructing Insight: EEG Correlates of Insightful Problem Solving

Background: Cognitive insight phenomenon lies at the core of numerous discoveries. Behavioral research indicates four salient features of insightful problem solving: (i) mental impasse, followed by (ii) restructuring of the problem representation, which leads to (iii) a deeper understanding of the problem, and finally culminates in (iv) an “Aha!” feeling of suddenness and obviousness of the solution. However, until now no efforts have been made to investigate the neural mechanisms of these constituent features of insight in a unified framework. Methodology/Principal Findings: In an electroencephalographic study using verbal remote associate problems, we identified neural correlates of these four features of insightful problem solving. Hints were provided for unsolved problems or after mental impasse. Subjective ratings of the restructuring process and the feeling of suddenness were obtained on trial-by-trial basis. A negative correlation was found between these two ratings indicating that sudden insightful solutions, where restructuring is a key feature, involve automatic, subconscious recombination of information. Electroencephalogram signals were analyzed in the space×time×frequency domain with a nonparametric cluster randomization test. First, we found strong gamma band responses at parieto-occipital regions which we interpreted as (i) an adjustment of selective attention (leading to a mental impasse or to a correct solution depending on the gamma band power level) and (ii) encoding and retrieval processes for the emergence of spontaneous new solutions. Secondly, we observed an increased upper alpha band response in right temporal regions (suggesting active suppression of weakly activated solution relevant information) for initially unsuccessful trials that after hint presentation led to a correct solution. Finally, for trials with high restructuring, decreased alpha power (suggesting greater cortical excitation) was observed in right prefrontal area. Conclusions/Significance: Our results provide a first account of cognitive insight by dissociating its constituent components and potential neural correlates

Effort-related functions of nucleus accumbens dopamine and associated forebrain circuits

Background Over the last several years, it has become apparent that there are critical problems with the hypothesis that brain dopamine (DA) systems, particularly in the nucleus accumbens, directly mediate the rewarding or primary motivational characteristics of natural stimuli such as food. Hypotheses related to DA function are undergoing a substantial restructuring, such that the classic emphasis on hedonia and primary reward is giving way to diverse lines of research that focus on aspects of instrumental learning, reward prediction, incentive motivation, and behavioral activation. Objective The present review discusses dopaminergic involvement in behavioral activation and, in particular, emphasizes the effort-related functions of nucleus accumbens DA and associated forebrain circuitry. Results The effects of accumbens DA depletions on food-seeking behavior are critically dependent upon the work requirements of the task. Lever pressing schedules that have minimal work requirements are largely unaffected by accumbens DA depletions, whereas reinforcement schedules that have high work (e.g., ratio) requirements are substantially impaired by accumbens DA depletions. Moreover, interference with accumbens DA transmission exerts a powerful influence over effort-related decision making. Rats with accumbens DA depletions reallocate their instrumental behavior away from food-reinforced tasks that have high response requirements, and instead, these rats select a less-effortful type of food-seeking behavior. Conclusions Along with prefrontal cortex and the amygdala, nucleus accumbens is a component of the brain circuitry regulating effort-related functions. Studies of the brain systems regulating effort-based processes may have implications for understanding drug abuse, as well as energy-related disorders such as psychomotor slowing, fatigue, or anergia in depression