Parity Doubling and the S Parameter Below the Conformal Window

We describe a lattice simulation of the masses and decay constants of the lowest-lying vector and axial resonances, and the electroweak S parameter, in an SU(3) gauge theory with $N_f = 2$ and 6 fermions in the fundamental representation. The spectrum becomes more parity doubled and the S parameter per electroweak doublet decreases when $N_f$ is increased from 2 to 6, motivating study of these trends as $N_f$ is increased further, toward the critical value for transition from confinement to infrared conformality.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures; to be submitted to PR

Sea-ice information and forecast needs for industry maritime stakeholders

Profound changes in Arctic sea-ice, a growing desire to utilize the Arctic’s abundant natural resources, and the potential competitiveness of Arctic shipping routes, all provide for increased industry marine activity throughout the Arctic Ocean. This is anticipated to result in further challenges for maritime safety. Those operating in ice-infested waters require various types of information for sea-ice and iceberg hazards. Ice information requirements depend on regional needs and whether the stakeholder wants to avoid ice all together, operate near or in the Marginal Ice Zone, or areas within the ice pack. An insight into user needs demonstrates how multiple spatial and temporal resolutions for sea-ice information and forecasts are necessary to provide information to the marine operating community for safety, planning, and situational awareness. Although ship-operators depend on sea-ice information for tactical navigation, stakeholders working in route and capacity planning can benefit from climatological and long-range forecast information at lower spatial and temporal resolutions where the interest is focused on open-water season. The advent of the Polar Code has brought with it additional information requirements, and exposed gaps in capacity and knowledge. Thus, future satellite data sources should be at resolutions that support both tactical and planning activities

Efficacy of Liver Transplantation in Patients with Primary Biliary Cirrhosis

No controlled trials have been performed to assess the efficacy of liver transplantation. Because of the marked improvement in survival after liver transplantation since 1981, random assignment of patients to a control group not undergoing transplantation is considered clinically inappropriate. To assess the efficacy of liver transplantation in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis, we compared survival in 161 patients with this diagnosis who had undergone a liver transplantation with survival in patients with the same diagnosis who had been treated conservatively. The comparison was performed with use of a recently developed statistical technique, the Mayo model. All patients had undergone liver transplantation between March 1980 and June 1987 and were followed for a median of 25 months. Three months after liver transplantation, the Kaplan–Meier survival probabilities in the recipients were substantially higher than the Mayo-model “simulated-control” survival probabilities (P<0.001). At two years, the Kaplan–Meier survival probability was 0.74, whereas the mean Mayo-model survival probability was 0.31. The patients who were at low risk according to the Mayo model had the best probability of survival after liver transplantation; however, patients at all risk levels who had undergone liver transplantation had higher probabilities of survival than those who had not. We conclude that liver transplantation is an efficacious treatment in patients with advanced primary biliary cirrhosis. (N Engl J Med 1989; 320:1709–13.), LIVER transplantation has been accepted clinically as a lifesaving treatment in various end-stage liver diseases, including primary biliary cirrhosis.1,2 However, no controlled trials have been performed to evaluate the efficacy of this procedure. Indeed, because there has been a marked improvement since 1981 in survival after transplantation, random assignment of patients with advanced liver disease to a nontransplantation control group is considered to be clinically inappropriate. At the Mayo Clinic, a Cox regression model for predicting the probability of survival in patients with conservatively treated primary biliary cirrhosis has been developed.3 To provide control data for assessing the efficacy of…. © 1989, Massachusetts Medical Society. All rights reserved

Necrotising fasciitis of the shoulder in association with rheumatoid arthritis treated with etanercept: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Necrotising fasciitis is a severe infection characterised by the fulminant destruction of tissue with associated systemic signs of sepsis and toxicity. Etanercept is a fully human fusion protein that inhibits tumor necrosis factor and the inflammatory cascade. It is effective in the treatment of many disorders but concerns regarding severe life threatening infections have been raised in multiple reports.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We present the case of a 39-year-old Caucasian man, who presented with sudden onset of severe and progressive neck and left shoulder pain, with a two-year history of seronegative rheumatoid arthritis treated with azathoprine and etanercept. On examination the left side of his neck and his left shoulder were oedematous, tender with an erythematous rash and his active range of movement was limited. Magnetic resonance imaging of his shoulder showed extensive oedema of the subcutaneous and intramuscular fat of the left lower neck consistent with fasciitis. He was treated medically and made a good recovery.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our patient, while having a pre-existing increased mortality risk, had a serious infection which responded well to optimum medical treatment without the need for surgery. As anti tumor necrosis factor agents are frequently associated with infection, including tuberculous infection, this case highlights the need for a high index of suspicion for other severe bacterial infections in patients on immunosuppressants.</p

Spin 3/2 Baryons and Form Factors in AdS/QCD

We study the 5D Rarita-Schwinger fields to describe spin 3/2 baryons in AdS/QCD. We calculate the spectrum of spin 3/2 baryons (Delta resonances) and their form factors, together with meson-baryon couplings from AdS/QCD. The transition form-factors between Delta and nucleon are evaluated. Both pion and rho meson couplings have the same origin in the bulk and hence unified. The numerical values for the meson-baryon transition couplings are consistent with the values obtained from other methods. We also predict the numerical values of some new couplings associated with Delta resonances.Comment: 29 pages, 6 figure

Health services research in the public healthcare system in Hong Kong: An analysis of over 1 million antihypertensive prescriptions between 2004-2007 as an example of the potential and pitfalls of using routinely collected electronic patient data

&lt;b&gt;Objectives&lt;/b&gt; Increasing use is being made of routinely collected electronic patient data in health services research. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the potential usefulness of a comprehensive database used routinely in the public healthcare system in Hong Kong, using antihypertensive drug prescriptions in primary care as an example.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Methods&lt;/b&gt; Data on antihypertensive drug prescriptions were retrieved from the electronic Clinical Management System (e-CMS) of all primary care clinics run by the Health Authority (HA) in the New Territory East (NTE) cluster of Hong Kong between January 2004 and June 2007. Information was also retrieved on patients’ demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, visit type (new or follow-up), and relevant diseases (International Classification of Primary Care, ICPC codes). &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Results&lt;/b&gt; 1,096,282 visit episodes were accessed, representing 93,450 patients. Patients’ demographic and socio-economic details were recorded in all cases. Prescription details for anti-hypertensive drugs were missing in only 18 patients (0.02%). However, ICPC-code was missing for 36,409 patients (39%). Significant independent predictors of whether disease codes were applied included patient age &gt; 70 years (OR 2.18), female gender (OR 1.20), district of residence (range of ORs in more rural districts; 0.32-0.41), type of clinic (OR in Family Medicine Specialist Clinics; 1.45) and type of visit (OR follow-up visit; 2.39). &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; In the 57,041 patients with an ICPC-code, uncomplicated hypertension (ICPC K86) was recorded in 45,859 patients (82.1%). The characteristics of these patients were very similar to those of the non-coded group, suggesting that most non-coded patients on antihypertensive drugs are likely to have uncomplicated hypertension. &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Conclusion&lt;/b&gt; The e-CMS database of the HA in Hong Kong varies in quality in terms of recorded information. Potential future health services research using demographic and prescription information is highly feasible but for disease-specific research dependant on ICPC codes some caution is warranted. In the case of uncomplicated hypertension, future research on pharmaco-epidemiology (such as prescription patterns) and clinical issues (such as side-effects of medications on metabolic parameters) seems feasible given the large size of the data set and the comparability of coded and non-coded patients

Systemic Risk and Default Clustering for Large Financial Systems

As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and computational tools for the quantification of such phenomena. Limiting analysis such as law of large numbers and central limit theorems allow to approximate the distribution in large systems and study quantities such as the loss distribution in large portfolios. Large deviations analysis allow us to study the tail of the loss distribution and to identify pathways to default clustering. Sensitivity analysis allows to understand the most likely ways in which different effects, such as contagion and systematic risks, combine to lead to large default rates. Such results could give useful insights into how to optimally safeguard against such events.Comment: in Large Deviations and Asymptotic Methods in Finance, (Editors: P. Friz, J. Gatheral, A. Gulisashvili, A. Jacqier, J. Teichmann) , Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 110 2015

Design of cohort studies in chronic diseases using routinely collected databases when a prescription is used as surrogate outcome

BACKGROUND: There has been little research on design of studies based on routinely collected data when the clinical endpoint of interest is not recorded, but can be inferred from a prescription. This often happens when exploring the effect of a drug on chronic diseases. Using the LifeLink claims database in studying the possible anti-inflammatory effects of statins in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), oral steroids (OS) were treated as surrogate of inflammatory flare-ups. We compared two cohort study designs, the first using time to event outcomes and the second using quantitative amount of the surrogate. METHODS: RA patients were extracted from the LifeLink database. In the first study, patients were split into two sub-cohorts based on whether they were using OS within a specified time window of the RA index date (first record of RA). Using Cox models we evaluated the association between time-varying exposure to statins and (i) initiation of OS therapy in the non-users of OS at RA index date and (ii) cessation of OS therapy in the users of OS at RA index date. In the second study, we matched new statin users to non users on age and sex. Zero inflated negative binomial models were used to contrast the number of days' prescriptions of OS in the year following date of statin initiation for the two exposure groups. RESULTS: In the unmatched study, the statin exposure hazard ratio (HR) of initiating OS in the 31451 non-users of OS at RA index date was 0.96(95% CI 0.9,1.1) and the statin exposure HR of cessation of OS therapy in the 6026 users of OS therapy at RA index date was 0.95 (0.87,1.05). In the matched cohort of 6288 RA patients the statin exposure rate ratio for duration on OS therapy was 0.88(0.76,1.02). There was digit preference for outcomes in multiples of 7 and 30 days. CONCLUSIONS: The 'time to event' study design was preferable because it better exploits information on all available patients and provides a degree of robustness toward confounding. We found no convincing evidence that statins reduce inflammation in RA patients

Proteomic identification of immunodiagnostic antigens for <i>Trypanosoma vivax </i>infections in cattle and generation of a proof-of-concept lateral flow test diagnostic device

Trypanosoma vivax is one of the causative agents of Animal African Trypanosomosis in cattle, which is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa and transmitted primarily by the bite of the tsetse fly vector. The parasite can also be mechanically transmitted, and this has allowed its spread to South America. Diagnostics are limited for this parasite and in farm settings diagnosis is mainly symptom-based. We set out to identify, using a proteomic approach, candidate diagnostic antigens to develop into an easy to use pen-side lateral flow test device. Two related members the invariant surface glycoprotein family, TvY486_0045500 and TvY486_0019690, were selected. Segments of these antigens, lacking N-terminal signal peptides and C-terminal transmembrane domains, were expressed in E. coli. Both were developed into ELISA tests and one of them, TvY486_0045500, was developed into a lateral flow test prototype. The tests were all evaluated blind with 113 randomised serum samples, taken from 37 calves before and after infection with T. vivax or T. congolense. The TvY486_0045500 and TvY486_0019690 ELISA tests gave identical sensitivity and specificity values for T. vivax infection of 94.5% (95% CI, 86.5% to 98.5%) and 88.0% (95% CI, 75.7% to 95.5%), respectively, and the TvY486_0045500 lateral flow test prototype a sensitivity and specificity of 92.0% (95% CI, 83.4% to 97.0%) and 89.8% (95% CI, 77.8% to 96.6%), respectively. These data suggest that recombinant TvY486_0045500 shows promise for the development of a pen-side lateral flow test for the diagnosis of T. vivax animal African trypanosomosis

A neural circuit model of decision uncertainty and change-of-mind

Decision-making is often accompanied by a degree of confidence on whether a choice is correct. Decision uncertainty, or lack in confidence, may lead to change-of-mind. Studies have identified the behavioural characteristics associated with decision confidence or change-of-mind, and their neural correlates. Although several theoretical accounts have been proposed, there is no neural model that can compute decision uncertainty and explain its effects on change-of-mind. We propose a neuronal circuit model that computes decision uncertainty while accounting for a variety of behavioural and neural data of decision confidence and change-of-mind, including testable model predictions. Our theoretical analysis suggests that change-of-mind occurs due to the presence of a transient uncertainty-induced choice-neutral stable steady state and noisy fluctuation within the neuronal network. Our distributed network model indicates that the neural basis of change-of-mind is more distinctively identified in motor-based neurons. Overall, our model provides a framework that unifies decision confidence and change-of-mind