Spatial analysis of lung, colorectal, and breast cancer on Cape Cod: An application of generalized additive models to case-control data

BACKGROUND: The availability of geographic information from cancer and birth defect registries has increased public demands for investigation of perceived disease clusters. Many neighborhood-level cluster investigations are methodologically problematic, while maps made from registry data often ignore latency and many known risk factors. Population-based case-control and cohort studies provide a stronger foundation for spatial epidemiology because potential confounders and disease latency can be addressed. METHODS: We investigated the association between residence and colorectal, lung, and breast cancer on upper Cape Cod, Massachusetts (USA) using extensive data on covariates and residential history from two case-control studies for 1983–1993. We generated maps using generalized additive models, smoothing on longitude and latitude while adjusting for covariates. The resulting continuous surface estimates disease rates relative to the whole study area. We used permutation tests to examine the overall importance of location in the model and identify areas of increased and decreased risk. RESULTS: Maps of colorectal cancer were relatively flat. Assuming 15 years of latency, lung cancer was significantly elevated just northeast of the Massachusetts Military Reservation, although the result did not hold when we restricted to residences of longest duration. Earlier non-spatial epidemiology had found a weak association between lung cancer and proximity to gun and mortar positions on the reservation. Breast cancer hot spots tended to increase in magnitude as we increased latency and adjusted for covariates, indicating that confounders were partly hiding these areas. Significant breast cancer hot spots were located near known groundwater plumes and the Massachusetts Military Reservation. DISCUSSION: Spatial epidemiology of population-based case-control studies addresses many methodological criticisms of cluster studies and generates new exposure hypotheses. Our results provide evidence for spatial clustering of breast cancer on upper Cape Cod. The analysis suggests further investigation of the potential association between breast cancer and pollution plumes based on detailed exposure modeling

Onset of the aerobic nitrogen cycle during the Great Oxidation Event

The rise of oxygen on the early Earth (about 2.4 billion years ago)1 caused a reorganization of marine nutrient cycles2, 3, including that of nitrogen, which is important for controlling global primary productivity. However, current geochemical records4 lack the temporal resolution to address the nature and timing of the biogeochemical response to oxygenation directly. Here we couple records of ocean redox chemistry with nitrogen isotope (15N/14N) values from approximately 2.31-billion-year-old shales5 of the Rooihoogte and Timeball Hill formations in South Africa, deposited during the early stages of the first rise in atmospheric oxygen on the Earth (the Great Oxidation Event)6. Our data fill a gap of about 400 million years in the temporal 15N/14N record4 and provide evidence for the emergence of a pervasive aerobic marine nitrogen cycle. The interpretation of our nitrogen isotope data in the context of iron speciation and carbon isotope data suggests biogeochemical cycling across a dynamic redox boundary, with primary productivity fuelled by chemoautotrophic production and a nitrogen cycle dominated by nitrogen loss processes using newly available marine oxidants. This chemostratigraphic trend constrains the onset of widespread nitrate availability associated with ocean oxygenation. The rise of marine nitrate could have allowed for the rapid diversification and proliferation of nitrate-using cyanobacteria and, potentially, eukaryotic phytoplankton

Ancillary human health benefits of improved air quality resulting from climate change mitigation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies can provide ancillary benefits in terms of short-term improvements in air quality and associated health benefits. Several studies have analyzed the ancillary impacts of GHG policies for a variety of locations, pollutants, and policies. In this paper we review the existing evidence on ancillary health benefits relating to air pollution from various GHG strategies and provide a framework for such analysis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We evaluate techniques used in different stages of such research for estimation of: (1) changes in air pollutant concentrations; (2) avoided adverse health endpoints; and (3) economic valuation of health consequences. The limitations and merits of various methods are examined. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for ancillary benefits analysis and related research gaps in the relevant disciplines.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found that to date most assessments have focused their analysis more heavily on one aspect of the framework (e.g., economic analysis). While a wide range of methods was applied to various policies and regions, results from multiple studies provide strong evidence that the short-term public health and economic benefits of ancillary benefits related to GHG mitigation strategies are substantial. Further, results of these analyses are likely to be underestimates because there are a number of important unquantified health and economic endpoints.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Remaining challenges include integrating the understanding of the relative toxicity of particulate matter by components or sources, developing better estimates of public health and environmental impacts on selected sub-populations, and devising new methods for evaluating heretofore unquantified and non-monetized benefits.</p

The topographic evolution of the Tibetan Region as revealed by palaeontology

The Tibetan Plateau was built through a succession of Gondwanan terranes colliding with Asia during the Mesozoic. These accretions produced a complex Paleogene topography of several predominantly east–west trending mountain ranges separated by deep valleys. Despite this piecemeal assembly and resultant complex relief, Tibet has traditionally been thought of as a coherent entity rising as one unit. This has led to the widely used phrase ‘the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau’, which is a false concept borne of simplistic modelling and confounds understanding the complex interactions between topography climate and biodiversity. Here, using the rich palaeontological record of the Tibetan region, we review what is known about the past topography of the Tibetan region using a combination of quantitative isotope and fossil palaeoaltimetric proxies, and present a new synthesis of the orography of Tibet throughout the Paleogene. We show why ‘the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau’ never occurred, and quantify a new pattern of topographic and landscape evolution that contributed to the development of today’s extraordinary Asian biodiversity

Reduced El Niño-Southern Oscillation during the Last Glacial Maximum.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of global interannual variability, but its response to climate change is uncertain. Paleoclimate records from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provide insight into ENSO behavior when global boundary conditions (ice sheet extent, atmospheric partial pressure of CO2) were different from those today. In this work, we reconstruct LGM temperature variability at equatorial Pacific sites using measurements of individual planktonic foraminifera shells. A deep equatorial thermocline altered the dynamics in the eastern equatorial cold tongue, resulting in reduced ENSO variability during the LGM compared to the Late Holocene. These results suggest that ENSO was not tied directly to the east-west temperature gradient, as previously suggested. Rather, the thermocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific played a decisive role in the ENSO response to LGM climate

Sliding rocks at the Racetrack, Death Valley: What makes them move?

Sharply angular boulders as large as 320 kg sit on the Racetrack Playa, Death Valley, California; trails leading to them indicate that the rocks have moved large distances. The process has never been witnessed. Although high winds and a wetted surface seem necessary, controversy persists about the need for other conditions, especially ice sheets. On the basis of experiments with a wetted Racetrack surface (soft mud ∼3 cm deep), we find the effective coefficient of friction to be surprisingly high, ∼0.8. Movement by wind alone of moderate-sized (20 kg) rocks with cubic shape requires sustained winds close to the ground of ∼80 m/s (∼180 mph). Larger flat-lying rocks require much higher winds. To assess the ice-sheet hypothesis, we mapped a large number of tracks into a precise coordinate system with an electronic theodolite. Certain tracks, separated by \u3c1 to ∼830 m, have nearly identical curving patterns near their starts. The distance between a distinctive bend on one such track and its mate on another matches the distance for another mated pair of bends on these same tracks within several centimetres, even for tracks 830 m apart. As proposed by Stanley (1955), it seems that the rocks, resting on mud, were locked into a single floating ice sheet, in this case at least 850 X 500 m. Final resting places of these rocks are much more widely scattered than their starting points, suggesting that the sheet broke into smaller plates. Large ice sheets can move rocks even with light winds and may explain the gentle curvature of tracks hundreds of metres long, a pattern very unlikely with gusty high winds and no ice

Monsoon-driven Saharan dust variability over the past 240,000 years.

Reconstructions of past Saharan dust deposition in marine sediments provide foundational records of North African climate over time scales of 103 to 106 years. Previous dust records show primarily glacial-interglacial variability in the Pleistocene, in contrast to other monsoon records showing strong precessional variability. Here, we present the first Saharan dust record spanning multiple glacial cycles obtained using 230Th normalization, an improved method of calculating fluxes. Contrary to previous data, our record from the West African margin demonstrates high correlation with summer insolation and limited glacial-interglacial changes, indicating coherent variability in the African monsoon belt throughout the late Pleistocene. Our results demonstrate that low-latitude Saharan dust emissions do not vary synchronously with high- and mid-latitude dust emissions, and they call into question the use of existing Plio-Pleistocene dust records to investigate links between climate and hominid evolution