Warming of Central European lakes and their response to the 1980s climate regime shift

Lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) are sensitive to atmospheric warming and have previously been shown to respond to regional changes in the climate. Using a combination of in situ and simulated surface temperatures from 20 Central European lakes, with data spanning between 50 and ∼100 years, we investigate the long-term increase in annually averaged LSWT. We demonstrate that Central European lakes are warming most in spring and experience a seasonal variation in LSWT trends. We calculate significant LSWT warming during the past few decades and illustrate, using a sequential t test analysis of regime shifts, a substantial increase in annually averaged LSWT during the late 1980s, in response to an abrupt shift in the climate. Surface air temperature measurements from 122 meteorological stations situated throughout Central Europe demonstrate similar increases at this time. Climatic modification of LSWT has numerous consequences for water quality and lake ecosystems. Quantifying the response of LSWT increase to large-scale and abrupt climatic shifts is essential to understand how lakes will respond in the future

Human-induced changes to the global ocean water masses and their time of emergence

The World Ocean is rapidly changing, with global and regional modification of temperature and salinity, resulting in widespread and irreversible impacts. While the most pronounced observed temperature and salinity changes are located in the upper ocean, changes in water masses at depth have been identified and will probably strengthen in the future. Here, using 11 climate models, we define when anthropogenic temperature and salinity changes are expected to emerge from natural variability in the ocean interior along density surfaces. The models predict that in 2020, 20–55% of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian basins have an emergent anthropogenic signal; reaching 40–65% in 2050 and 55–80% in 2080. The well-ventilated Southern Ocean water masses emerge very rapidly, as early as the 1980–1990s, while the Northern Hemisphere water masses emerge in the 2010–2030s. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining and augmenting an ocean observing system capable of detecting and monitoring persistent anthropogenic changes

Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability

Volcanic activity plays a strong role in modulating climate variability (ref. 1). Most model projections of the twenty-first century, however, under-sample future volcanic effects by not representing the range of plausible eruption scenarios (ref. 2,3,4). Here, we explore how sixty possible volcanic futures, consistent with ice-core records (ref. 5), impact climate variability projections of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) (ref. 6) under RCP4.5 (ref. 7). The inclusion of volcanic forcing enhances climate variability on annual-to-decadal timescales. Although decades with negative global temperature trends become ∼50% more commonplace with volcanic activity, these are unlikely to be able to mitigate long-term anthropogenic warming. Volcanic activity also impacts probabilistic projections of global radiation, sea level, ocean circulation, and sea-ice variability, the local-scale effects of which are detectable when quantifying the time of emergence (ref. 8). These results highlight the importance and feasibility of representing volcanic uncertainty in future climate assessments

Climate change threatens the world’s marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a primary management tool for mitigating threats to marine biodiversity1,2. MPAs and the species they protect, however, are increasingly being impacted by climate change. Here we show that, despite local protections, the warming associated with continued business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5)3 will likely result in further habitat and species losses throughout low-latitude and tropical MPAs4,5. With continued business-as-usual emissions, mean sea-surface temperatures within MPAs are projected to increase 0.035 °C per year and warm an additional 2.8 °C by 2100. Under these conditions, the time of emergence (the year when sea-surface temperature and oxygen concentration exceed natural variability) is mid-century in 42% of 309 no-take marine reserves. Moreover, projected warming rates and the existing ‘community thermal safety margin’ (the inherent buffer against warming based on the thermal sensitivity of constituent species) both vary among ecoregions and with latitude. The community thermal safety margin will be exceeded by 2050 in the tropics and by 2150 for many higher latitude MPAs. Importantly, the spatial distribution of emergence is stressor-specific. Hence, rearranging MPAs to minimize exposure to one stressor could well increase exposure to another. Continued business-as-usual emissions will likely disrupt many marine ecosystems, reducing the benefits of MPAs

Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

ISSN:1752-0908ISSN:1752-089

Evaluation of multi-decadal UCLA-CFSv2 simulation and impact of interactive atmospheric-ocean feedback on global and regional variability

This paper evaluates multi-decadal simulations of the UCLA version of Climate Forecast System version 2, in which the default Noah land surface model has been replaced with the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version-2. To examine the influence of the atmosphere–ocean (AO) interaction on the variability, two different simulations were conducted: one with interactive ocean component, and the other constrained by the prescribed sea surface temperature. We evaluate the mean seasonal climatology of precipitation and temperature, along with the model’s ability to reproduce atmospheric variability at different scales over the globe, including extratropical modes of atmospheric variability, and long-term trends of global and hemispheric temperature and regional precipitation. Here, we particularly selected two monsoon regions, East Asia and West Africa, where the simulation of multi-decadal variations which has heretofore been a challenging task, to examine decadal variation of monsoon precipitation. In general, temperature anomaly trends were better captured than those of precipitation in both simulations. Results suggest that the AO interaction, represented as latent heat flux, contributes to improve reproducibility of global-wide climatology, extratropical modes of atmospheric variability, and variability in the multi-decadal climate simulation, as well as for inter-decadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon

Evaluation of multi-decadal UCLA-CFSv2 simulation and impact of interactive atmospheric-ocean feedback on global and regional variability

This paper evaluates multi-decadal simulations of the UCLA version of Climate Forecast System version 2, in which the default Noah land surface model has been replaced with the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version-2. To examine the influence of the atmosphere–ocean (AO) interaction on the variability, two different simulations were conducted: one with interactive ocean component, and the other constrained by the prescribed sea surface temperature. We evaluate the mean seasonal climatology of precipitation and temperature, along with the model’s ability to reproduce atmospheric variability at different scales over the globe, including extratropical modes of atmospheric variability, and long-term trends of global and hemispheric temperature and regional precipitation. Here, we particularly selected two monsoon regions, East Asia and West Africa, where the simulation of multi-decadal variations which has heretofore been a challenging task, to examine decadal variation of monsoon precipitation. In general, temperature anomaly trends were better captured than those of precipitation in both simulations. Results suggest that the AO interaction, represented as latent heat flux, contributes to improve reproducibility of global-wide climatology, extratropical modes of atmospheric variability, and variability in the multi-decadal climate simulation, as well as for inter-decadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon

Understanding global sea levels: past, present and future

The coastal zone has changed profoundly during the 20th century and, as a result, society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the impact of sea-level rise and variability. This demands improved understanding to facilitate appropriate planning to minimise potential losses. With this in mind, the World Climate Research Programme organised a workshop (held in June 2006) to document current understanding and to identify research and observations required to reduce current uncertainties associated with sea-level rise and variability. While sea levels have varied by over 120 m during glacial/interglacial cycles, there has been little net rise over the past several millennia until the 19th century and early 20th century, when geological and tide-gauge data indicate an increase in the rate of sea-level rise. Recent satellite-altimeter data and tide-gauge data have indicated that sea levels are now rising at over 3 mm year−1. The major contributions to 20th and 21st century sea-level rise are thought to be a result of ocean thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Ice sheets are thought to have been a minor contributor to 20th century sea-level rise, but are potentially the largest contributor in the longer term. Sea levels are currently rising at the upper limit of the projections of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (TAR IPCC), and there is increasing concern of potentially large ice-sheet contributions during the 21st century and beyond, particularly if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. A suite of ongoing satellite and in situ observational activities need to be sustained and new activities supported. To the extent that we are able to sustain these observations, research programmes utilising the resulting data should be able to significantly improve our understanding and narrow projections of future sea-level rise and variabilit