A rainfall model for drought risk analysis in south-east UK

Drought risk assessment ideally requires long-term rainfall records especially where inter-annual droughts are of potential concern, and spatially consistent estimates of rainfall to support regional and inter-regional scale assessments. This paper addresses these challenges by developing a spatially consistent stochastic model of monthly rainfall for south-east UK. Conditioned on 50 gauged sites, the model infills the historic record from 1855-2011 in both space and time, and extends the record by synthesising droughts which are consistent with the observed rainfall statistics. The long record length allows more insight into the variability of rainfall and potentially a stronger basis for risk assessment than is generally possible. It is shown that, although localised biases exist in both space and time, the model results are generally consistent with the observed record including for a range of inter-annual droughts and spatial statistics. Simulations show that some of the most severe inter-annual droughts on the record may recur, despite a trend towards generally wetter winters

Alien Plants Introduced by Different Pathways Differ in Invasion Success: Unintentional Introductions as a Threat to Natural Areas

BACKGROUND: Understanding the dimensions of pathways of introduction of alien plants is important for regulating species invasions, but how particular pathways differ in terms of post-invasion success of species they deliver has never been rigorously tested. We asked whether invasion status, distribution and habitat range of 1,007 alien plant species introduced after 1500 A.D. to the Czech Republic differ among four basic pathways of introduction recognized for plants. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Pathways introducing alien species deliberately as commodities (direct release into the wild; escape from cultivation) result in easier naturalization and invasion than pathways of unintentional introduction (contaminant of a commodity; stowaway arriving without association with it). The proportion of naturalized and invasive species among all introductions delivered by a particular pathway decreases with a decreasing level of direct assistance from humans associated with that pathway, from release and escape to contaminant and stowaway. However, those species that are introduced via unintentional pathways and become invasive are as widely distributed as deliberately introduced species, and those introduced as contaminants invade an even wider range of seminatural habitats. CONCLUSIONS: Pathways associated with deliberate species introductions with commodities and pathways whereby species are unintentionally introduced are contrasting modes of introductions in terms of invasion success. However, various measures of the outcome of the invasion process, in terms of species' invasion success, need to be considered to accurately evaluate the role of and threat imposed by individual pathways. By employing various measures we show that invasions by unintentionally introduced plant species need to be considered by management as seriously as those introduced by horticulture, because they invade a wide range of seminatural habitats, hence representing even a greater threat to natural areas

How environmental managers perceive and approach the issue of invasive species: the case of Japanese knotweed s.l. (Rhône River, France)

We would like to thank Springer for publishing our article. The final publication is available at http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10530-015-0969-1International audienceStudying the perceptions of stakeholders or interested parties is a good way to better understand behaviours and decisions. This is especially true for the management of invasive species such as Japanese knotweed s.l. This plant has spread widely in the Rhône basin, where significant financial resources have been devoted to its management. However, no control technique is recognized as being particularly effective. Many uncertainties remain and many documents have been produced by environmental managers to disseminate current knowledge about the plant and its management. This article aims at characterizing the perceptions that environmental managers have of Japanese knotweed s.l. A discourse analysis was conducted on the printed documentation produced about Japanese knotweed s.l. by environmental managers working along the Rhône River (France). The corpus was both qualitatively and quantitatively analysed. The results indicated a diversity of perceptions depending on the type of environmental managers involved, as well as the geographicalareas and scales on which they acted. Whereas some focused on general knowledge relating to the origins and strategies of colonization, others emphasized the diversity and efficacy of the prospective eradication techniques. There is a real interest in implementing targeted actions to meet local issues. To do so, however, these issues must be better defined. This is a challenging task, as it must involve all types of stakeholders

A longitudinal survey of African animal trypanosomiasis in domestic cattle on the Jos Plateau, Nigeria:prevalence, distribution and risk factors

BACKGROUND: Trypanosomiasis is a widespread disease of livestock in Nigeria and a major constraint to the rural economy. The Jos Plateau, Nigeria was free from tsetse flies and the trypanosomes they transmit due to its high altitude and the absence of animal trypanosomiasis attracted large numbers of cattle-keeping pastoralists to inhabit the plateau. The Jos Plateau now plays a significant role in the national cattle industry, accommodating approximately 7% of the national herd and supporting 300,000 pastoralists and over one million cattle. However, during the past two decades tsetse flies have invaded the Jos Plateau and animal trypanosomiasis has become a significant problem for livestock keepers. METHODS: In 2008 a longitudinal two-stage cluster survey on the Jos Plateau. Cattle were sampled in the dry, early wet and late wet seasons. Parasite identification was undertaken using species-specific polymerase chain reactions to determine the prevalence and distribution bovine trypanosomiasis. Logistic regression was performed to determine risk factors for disease. RESULTS: The prevalence of bovine trypanosomiasis (Trypanosoma brucei brucei, Trypanosoma congolense savannah, Trypanosoma vivax) across the Jos Plateau was found to be high at 46.8% (39.0 – 54.5%) and significant, seasonal variation was observed between the dry season and the end of the wet season. T. b. brucei was observed at a prevalence of 3.2% (1% – 5.5%); T. congolense at 27.7% (21.8% - 33.6%) and T. vivax at 26.7% (18.2% - 35.3%). High individual variation was observed in trypanosomiasis prevalence between individual villages on the Plateau, ranging from 8.8% to 95.6%. Altitude was found to be a significant risk factor for trypanosomiasis whilst migration also influenced risk for animal trypanosomiasis. CONCLUSIONS: Trypanosomiasis is now endemic on the Jos Plateau showing high prevalence in cattle and is influenced by seasonality, altitude and migration practices. Attempts to successfully control animal trypanosomiasis on the Plateau will need to take into account the large variability in trypanosomiasis infection rates between villages, the influence of land use, and husbandry and management practices of the pastoralists, all of which affect the epidemiology of the disease

Remote detection of invasive alien species

The spread of invasive alien species (IAS) is recognized as the most severe threat to biodiversity outside of climate change and anthropogenic habitat destruction. IAS negatively impact ecosystems, local economies, and residents. They are especially problematic because once established, they give rise to positive feedbacks, increasing the likelihood of further invasions and spread. The integration of remote sensing (RS) to the study of invasion, in addition to contributing to our understanding of invasion processes and impacts to biodiversity, has enabled managers to monitor invasions and predict the spread of IAS, thus supporting biodiversity conservation and management action. This chapter focuses on RS capabilities to detect and monitor invasive plant species across terrestrial, riparian, aquatic, and human-modified ecosystems. All of these environments have unique species assemblages and their own optimal methodology for effective detection and mapping, which we discuss in detail

Mind the gap: Does what we know about greenspace and wellbeing change what we do?

This chapter addresses questions of the decision-making processes con- cerning investment in urban green spaces. It considers how evidence is deployed in processes of governance, and how nuanced understandings of costs and wellbeing benefits are backgrounded as evidence becomes a bargaining chip in a struggle for resources. Calling on empirical research conducted in the city of Sheffield, this chapter examines these issues through the lens of the everyday work of practitioners and professionals. The chapter highlights the importance of logics of action and inaction, revealing the effects of stakeholders’ reasons for choosing not to take actions that strengthen the links between green spaces and mental wellbeing