Compound wind and rainfall extremes: Drivers and future changes over the UK and Ireland

\ua9 2024The co-occurrence of wind and rainfall extremes can yield larger impacts than when either hazard occurs in isolation. This study assesses compound extremes produced by Extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) during winter from two perspectives. Firstly, we assess ETCs with extreme footprints of wind and rainfall; footprint severity is measured using the wind severity index (WSI) and rain severity index (RSI) which account for the intensity, duration, and area of either hazard. Secondly, we assess local co-occurrences of 6-hourly wind and rainfall extremes within ETCs. We quantify the likelihood of compound extremes in these two perspectives and characterise a number of their drivers (jet stream, cyclone tracks, and fronts) in control (1981–2000) and future (2060–2081, RCP8.5) climate simulations from a 12-member ensemble of local convection-permitting 2.2 km climate projections over the UK and Ireland. Simulations indicate an increased probability of ETCs producing extremely severe WSI and RSI in the same storm in the future, occurring 3.6 times more frequently (every 5 years compared to every 18 years in the control). This frequency increase is mainly driven by increased rainfall intensities, pointing to a predominantly thermodynamic driver. However, future winds also increase alongside a strengthened jet stream, while a southward displaced jet and cyclone track in these events leads to a dynamically-enhanced increase in temperature. This intensifies rainfall in line with Clausius-Clapeyron, and potentially wind speeds due to additional latent heat energy. Future simulations also indicate an increase in the land area experiencing locally co-occurring wind and rainfall extremes; largely explained by increased rainfall within warm and cold fronts, although the relative increase is highest near cold fronts suggesting increased convective activity. These locally co-occurring extremes are more likely in storms with severe WSI and RSI, but not exclusively so as local co-occurrence requires the coincidence of separate drivers within ETCs. Overall, our results reveal many contributing factors to compound wind and rainfall extremes and their future changes. Further work is needed to understand the uncertainty in the future response by sampling additional climate models

Compound wind and rainfall extremes: Drivers and future changes over the UK and Ireland

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordData availability: Wind and rainfall data is freely available. Other data can be made available upon reasonable request.The co-occurrence of wind and rainfall extremes can yield larger impacts than when either hazard occurs in isolation. This study assesses compound extremes produced by Extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) during winter from two perspectives. Firstly, we assess ETCs with extreme footprints of wind and rainfall; footprint severity is measured using the wind severity index (WSI) and rain severity index (RSI) which account for the intensity, duration, and area of either hazard. Secondly, we assess local co-occurrences of 6-hourly wind and rainfall extremes within ETCs. We quantify the likelihood of compound extremes in these two perspectives and characterise a number of their drivers (jet stream, cyclone tracks, and fronts) in control (1981-2000) and future (2060-2081, RCP8.5) climate simulations from a 12-member ensemble of local convection-permitting 2.2 km climate projections over the UK and Ireland. Simulations indicate an increased probability of ETCs producing extremely severe WSI and RSI in the same storm in the future, occurring 3.6 times more frequently (every 5 years compared to every 18 years in the control). This frequency increase is mainly driven by increased rainfall intensities, pointing to a predominantly thermodynamic driver. However, future winds also increase alongside a strengthened jet stream, while a southward displaced jet and cyclone track in these events leads to a dynamically-enhanced increase in temperature. This intensifies rainfall in line with Clausius-Clapeyron, and potentially wind speeds due to additional latent heat energy. Future simulations also indicate an increase in the land area experiencing locally co-occurring wind and rainfall extremes; largely explained by increased rainfall within warm and cold fronts, although the relative increase is highest near cold fronts suggesting increased convective activity. These locally co-occurring extremes are more likely in storms with severe WSI and RSI, but not exclusively so as local co-occurrence requires the coincidence of separate drivers within ETCs. Overall, our results reveal many contributing factors to compound wind and rainfall extremes and their future changes. Further work is needed to understand the uncertainty in the future response by sampling additional climate models.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Joint UK BEIS/Defra Hadley Centre Climate ProgrammeEuropean Union Horizon 202

The frequency of genes encoding three putative group B streptococcal virulence factors among invasive and colonizing isolates

BACKGROUND: Group B Streptococcus (GBS) causes severe infections in very young infants and invasive disease in pregnant women and adults with underlying medical conditions. GBS pathogenicity varies between and within serotypes, with considerable variation in genetic content between strains. Three proteins, Rib encoded by rib, and alpha and beta C proteins encoded by bca and bac, respectively, have been suggested as potential vaccine candidates for GBS. It is not known, however, whether these genes occur more frequently in invasive versus colonizing GBS strains. METHODS: We screened 162 invasive and 338 colonizing GBS strains from different collections using dot blot hybridization to assess the frequency of bca, bac and rib. All strains were defined by serotyping for capsular type, and frequency differences were tested using the Chi square test. RESULTS: Genes encoding the beta C protein (bac) and Rib (rib) occurred at similar frequencies among invasive and colonizing isolates, bac (20% vs. 23%), and rib (28% vs. 20%), while the alpha (bca) C protein was more frequently found in colonizing strains (46%) vs, invasive (29%). Invasive strains were associated with specific serotype/gene combinations. CONCLUSION: Novel virulence factors must be identified to better understand GBS disease

Bleeding and first-year mortality following hip fracture surgery and preoperative use of low-dose acetylsalicylic acid: an observational cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hip fracture is associated with high mortality. Cardiovascular disease and other comorbidities requiring long-term anticoagulant medication are common in these mostly elderly patients. The objective of our observational cohort study of patients undergoing surgery for hip fracture was to study the association between preoperative use of low-dose acetylsalicylic acid (LdAA) and intraoperative blood loss, blood transfusion and first-year all-cause mortality.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An observational cohort study was conducted on patients with hip fracture (cervical requiring hemiarthroplasty or pertrochanteric or subtrochanteric requiring internal fixation) participating in a randomized trial that found lack of efficacy of a compression bandage in reducing postoperative bleeding. The participants were 255 patients (≥50 years) of whom 118 (46%) were using LdAA (defined as ≤320 mg daily) preoperatively. Bleeding variables in patients with and without LdAA treatment at time of fracture were measured and blood transfusions given were compared using logistic regression. The association between first-year mortality and preoperative use of LdAA was analyzed with Cox regression adjusting for age, sex, type of fracture, baseline renal dysfunction and baseline cardiovascular and/or cerebrovascular disease.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Blood transfusions were given postoperatively to 74 (62.7%) LdAA-treated and 76 (54%) non-treated patients; the adjusted odds ratio was 1.8 (95% CI 1.04 to 3.3). First-year mortality was significantly higher in LdAA-treated patients; the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 2.35 (95% CI 1.23 to 4.49). The mortality was also higher with baseline cardiovascular and/or cerebrovascular disease, adjusted HR 2.78 (95% CI 1.31 to 5.88). Patients treated with LdAA preoperatively were significantly more likely to suffer thromboembolic events (5.7% vs. 0.7%, P = 0.03).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In patients with hip fracture (cervical treated with hemiarthroplasty or pertrochanteric or subtrochanteric treated with internal fixation) preoperative use of low-dose acetylsalicylic acid was associated with significantly increased need for postoperative blood transfusions and significantly higher all-cause mortality during one year after surgery.</p

Mineral chemistry of igneous melanite garnets from analcite-bearing volcanic rocks, Alberta, Canada

The mineral chemistry of melanite garnets from the Crowsnest volcanic rocks of SW Alberta, Canada, has been investigated by using electron microprobe scans, quantitative analyses and multivariate statistical analysis. The garnets occur with aegirine-augite, sanidine, analcite and rare plagioclase as phenocrysts in trachyte and phonolite flows, agglomerates and tuffs. Wavelength dispersive microprobe scans reveal complex zonation patterns, both normal and oscillatory. The results of fifty quantitative analyses were subjected to R-mode factor analysis to delineate the chemical exchanges producing the zonation. The chemical zonation of the garnets may be attributed to four independent binary exchanges; Al-Fe3+, Si-Ti, Ca-Mn and Mg-Fe2+. The stoichiometry of these garnets, based on microprobe and wet chemical Fe analyses, combined with the strongly antithetic behavior of Si and Ti lead us to infer that the Ti in these garnets is dominantly tetravalent. It is clear from this study that quantitative modelling of the processes of crystal growth and zonation of melanite garnets in alkaline, undersaturated igneous rocks should be aimed at simulating the four chemical exchanges listed above

Continuing medical education in Turkey: Recent developments

BACKGROUND: The Turkish Association of Medicine founded a Continuing Medical Education Accreditation Committee in 1993 to evaluate and accredit scientific meetings and publications. The aims of this project were to raise the standards of meetings and to introduce compulsory revalidation and re-certification for physicians in Turkey. DISCUSSION: Since the year 1994, 2348 applications to the Continuing Medical Education board have been made (mostly for scientific meetings), and 95% of these applications have been accepted. Physicians received 139.014 credits during this time. This number is increasing every year. Meeting organisers' demand for such a kind of evaluation is increasing, because participants increasingly request it. SUMMARY: Efforts for revalidation and re-certification of physicians have not been completely successful yet. In the near future the Co-ordination Council of Medical Speciality Societies is going to oblige member associations to establish speciality boards. This will be the first step to the conventional use of Continuing Medical Education credits in occupational evaluation. Time-limited re-certification of physicians is the principal goal of Turkish Medical Association. Efforts to implement this change in legislation are being made

Membranes by the Numbers

Many of the most important processes in cells take place on and across membranes. With the rise of an impressive array of powerful quantitative methods for characterizing these membranes, it is an opportune time to reflect on the structure and function of membranes from the point of view of biological numeracy. To that end, in this article, I review the quantitative parameters that characterize the mechanical, electrical and transport properties of membranes and carry out a number of corresponding order of magnitude estimates that help us understand the values of those parameters.Comment: 27 pages, 12 figure

Caveolin-1 Influences Vascular Protease Activity and Is a Potential Stabilizing Factor in Human Atherosclerotic Disease

Caveolin-1 (Cav-1) is a regulatory protein of the arterial wall, but its role in human atherosclerosis remains unknown. We have studied the relationships between Cav-1 abundance, atherosclerotic plaque characteristics and clinical manisfestations of atherosclerotic disease.We determined Cav-1 expression by western blotting in atherosclerotic plaques harvested from 378 subjects that underwent carotid endarterectomy. Cav-1 levels were significantly lower in carotid plaques than non-atherosclerotic vascular specimens. Low Cav-1 expression was associated with features of plaque instability such as large lipid core, thrombus formation, macrophage infiltration, high IL-6, IL-8 levels and elevated MMP-9 activity. Clinically, a down-regulation of Cav-1 was observed in plaques obtained from men, patients with a history of myocardial infarction and restenotic lesions. Cav-1 levels above the median were associated with absence of new vascular events within 30 days after surgery [0% vs. 4%] and a trend towards lower incidence of new cardiovascular events during longer follow-up. Consistent with these clinical data, Cav-1 null mice revealed elevated intimal hyperplasia response following arterial injury that was significantly attenuated after MMP inhibition. Recombinant peptides mimicking Cav-1 scaffolding domain (Cavtratin) reduced gelatinase activity in cultured porcine arteries and impaired MMP-9 activity and COX-2 in LPS-challenged macrophages. Administration of Cavtratin strongly impaired flow-induced expansive remodeling in mice.This is the first study that identifies Cav-1 as a novel potential stabilizing factor in human atherosclerosis. Our findings support the hypothesis that local down-regulation of Cav-1 in atherosclerotic lesions contributes to plaque formation and/or instability accelerating the occurrence of adverse clinical outcomes. Therefore, given the large number of patients studied, we believe that Cav-1 may be considered as a novel target in the prevention of human atherosclerotic disease and the loss of Cav-1 may be a novel biomarker of vulnerable plaque with prognostic value

Evidence for a Minimal Eukaryotic Phosphoproteome?

BACKGROUND: Reversible phosphorylation catalysed by kinases is probably the most important regulatory mechanism in eukaryotes. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We studied the in vitro phosphorylation of peptide arrays exhibiting the majority of PhosphoBase-deposited protein sequences, by factors in cell lysates from representatives of various branches of the eukaryotic species. We derived a set of substrates from the PhosphoBase whose phosphorylation by cellular extracts is common to the divergent members of different kingdoms and thus may be considered a minimal eukaryotic phosphoproteome. The protein kinases (or kinome) responsible for phosphorylation of these substrates are involved in a variety of processes such as transcription, translation, and cytoskeletal reorganisation. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results indicate that the divergence in eukaryotic kinases is not reflected at the level of substrate phosphorylation, revealing the presence of a limited common substrate space for kinases in eukaryotes and suggests the presence of a set of kinase substrates and regulatory mechanisms in an ancestral eukaryote that has since remained constant in eukaryotic life