Cross-sectoral and trans-national interactions in national-scale climate change impacts assessment—the case of the Czech Republic

Assessing the combined impacts of future climate and socio-economic change at the country level is vital for supporting national adaptation policies. Here, we use a novel modelling approach to study the systemic impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on the Czech Republic, taking account of cross-sectoral interactions between agriculture, water, forestry, land-use and biodiversity, and, for the first time, trans-national interactions. We evaluate the national-level baseline results, scenario-neutral model sensitivities, and climate and socio-economic scenario impacts using a European-scale integrated modelling tool. Consistently across most climate and socio-economic scenarios, the Czech Republic is projected to have increasing importance as a crop-growing region in Europe, due to an increased competitive advantage within the continent. Arable land in the Czech Republic expands, at the expense of livestock farming and forestry, with associated impacts of increased water scarcity and reduced biodiversity for the country. Accounting for trans-national interactions in national-scale assessments provides more realistic assessments of impacts and helps to identify the changing role of the country within its regional and continental domain. Such improved understanding can support policy-makers in developing national adaptation actions that reduce adverse impacts and realise opportunities

Developing a water strategy for sustainable irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean island communities – Insights from Malta

The future sustainability of irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean island communities faces a raft of economic, environmental and socio-economic challenges. Many of these are inextricably linked to the extreme levels of water scarcity that exist in the region. With a focus on Malta, we developed a water strategy to identify the priorities for action to support decision makers, practitioners and the agrifood industry in achieving agricultural and water resources sustainability. The methodology involved a combination of evidence synthesis, to inform the development of a Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response framework. These priorities were then used to define a set of key actions under three thematic pillars of sustainability (environment, economy and society). Our analysis confirmed that irrigated agriculture in Malta is not only impacted by environmental factors such as the challenging climate and geography of the region but also strongly influenced by a range of economic (tourism development, European Union accession) and societal (population growth, environmental regulation) drivers of change. The developed strategy is underpinned by priority actions relating to improved water and soil management. The reduction of water and energy footprints in crop production, the establishment of demonstration farms and the support of policies that promote ‘value adding’ activities are examples of key priority actions for the environmental, economic and societal pillar, respectively. Regarding the scale of intervention, the analysis distinguishes research as being important for supporting many of the economy-focused actions

Trade-offs are unavoidable in multi-objective adaptation even in a post-Paris Agreement world

In a post-Paris Agreement world, where global warming has been limited to 1.5 or 2 °C, adaptation is still needed to address the impacts of climate change. To reinforce the links between such climate actions and sustainable development, adaptation responses should be aligned with goals of environmental conservation, economic development and societal wellbeing. This paper uses a multi-sectoral integrated modelling platform to evaluate the impacts of a + 1.5 °C world to the end of the 21st century under alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for Europe. It evaluates the ability of adaptation strategies to concurrently improve a range of indicators, relating to sustainable development, under the constraints imposed by the contrasting SSPs. The spatial synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development indicators (SDIs) are also evaluated across Europe. We find that considerable impacts are present even under low-end climate change, affecting especially biodiversity. Even when the SDIs improve with adaptation, residual impacts of climate change affect all the SDIs, apart from sustainable production. All but one of the adaptation strategies have unintended consequences on one or multiple SDIs, although these differ substantially between strategies, regions and socio-economic scenarios. The exception was the strategy to increase social and human capital. Other strategies that lead to successful adaptation with limited unintended consequences are those aiming at adoption of sustainable behaviours and implementation of sustainable water management. This work stresses the continuing importance of adaptation even under 1.5 °C or 2 °C of global warming. Further, it demonstrates the need for policy-makers to develop holistic adaptation strategies that take account of the synergies and trade-offs between sectoral adaptation strategies, sectors and regions, and are also constrained by scenario context to avoid over-optimistic assessments

Multi-stakeholder analysis to improve agricultural water management policy and practice in Malta

Malta faces a raft of water challenges which are negatively impacting on the sustainability of irrigated agriculture, and creating serious tensions with other sectors competing for water, including urban development, tourism and the environment. In this paper we argue for a transparent process centred on participatory stakeholder engagement to agree on the most challenging water-related risks and to identify solutions that both support the water governance framework and improve on-farm water management practices. Given Malta’s dependence on freshwater, this study focused on outdoor field-scale irrigated production. A three staged stakeholder-driven approach was developed. The first stage included Delphi analyses to identify the key constraints on water management and fuzzy cognitive mapping to enable stakeholders to analyse their mental models and formalise conceptual and causal relationships between different components impacting on Maltese agriculture. Secondly, questionnaires were used to inform understanding of national policy gaps in water management and thirdly, a “backcasting” stakeholder workshop was used to identify policy actions to achieve a more sustainable future for agriculture on the island. The study confirmed that Malta’s core challenge is tied to poor water governance and the need to define policies that are socially and environmentally acceptable and geared to tackling the complex water challenges the agricultural sector faces. Developing support for farmer training, knowledge translation, greater public awareness of the importance and value of water for high-value crop production and multi-sector collaboration to promote shared opportunities for water infrastructure investment were highlighted as potential solutions. The findings have direct relevance to other island communities where water scarcity poses serious agronomic risks to production and where agriculture underpins rural livelihoods and the economy

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5° C and 2° C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’

Making a Difference in Education : The role of the school and especially the teacher in empowering gender discrimination under a policy of equality.

The aim of this thesis is to find out how the role of the teacher can affect positively or negatively the issue of gender equality in classroom and more specifically how this question can be applied to the Greek educational system which, for years, has been following a program that suggests ways for the elimination of gender stereotyping. The reason that this thesis focuses mainly on the role of the teacher, besides the fact that teaching is my occupation, lies in the fact that the implementation of every policy presupposes the willingness of the teacher to carry out those implementations. The implementation of policies on gender issues requires a constant education and training on gender issues and rights, expanding the attitude and beliefs on the issue. So far the policies tend to aim to equality and elimination of discrimination. We will see at which level we currently are and which are the visions regarding this matter

Μελέτη επιπτώσεων ακραίων σεναρίων κλιματικής αλλαγής στο παγκόσμιο υδρολογικό καθεστώς

In recent years, there has been a strong consensus on the changes in climate caused by increased concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Global CO2 emission rates have been following high-end climate change pathways leading to a future global temperature that is likely to surpass the target limits of +1.5oC and +2oC, and reach levels of +4oC and higher at the end of the 21st century. Freshwater availability under such conditions is a key issue of concern and thus, scientific research has focused on estimating the range of changes in the future climate and the effectiveness of different adaptation strategies. The main tool for the investigation of future climate is the utilization of global climate models (GCMs). GCMs are based on physical principles that describe the components of the climate system. The next step for hydrological impacts’ assessments is to force global hydrological models (GHMs) or land surface models (LSMs) with GCM outputs. Due to the systematic biases they feature, GCM outputs need some kind of bias correction prior to their application as forcing to impact models, especially for hydrological studies. Most bias correction techniques focus mainly on the variables of precipitation and temperature. However most state-of-art hydrological models require more forcing variables, additionally to precipitation and temperature, such as radiation, humidity, air pressure and wind speed. The biases in these additional variables can hinder hydrological simulations, but the effect of the bias of each variable is unexplored.In the present thesis, a methodological framework of a multi-faceted assessment of the effects of high-end climate change on the global hydrological regime is presented. The tool for the hydrological simulations in our study is the LSM JULES, a physically based model operating at the global scale. The first component of our methodological framework is the evaluation of the model for a historical period and the assessment of the model’s sensitivity to input forcing. A runoff routing algorithm is designed and implemented, to allow the comparison of the model output with discharge measurements. The second part of the methodological framework aims to assess the effect of the GCM biases on the performed runoff simulations, with the scope of deciding on the meteorological variables that should be included in bias correction. To this end, a methodology for the classification of the effect of biases in four effect categories (ECs), based on the magnitude and sensitivity of runoff changes, is developed and applied. The final part of the methodological framework of this thesis is the assessment of hydrological climate change impacts under high-end warming scenarios. Assessment of impacts focuses on water availability and droughts at the global, European, regional and basin scale, employing a number of different and complementary methods. Climate change impacts are examined for different levels of warming (+1.5, +2 and +4oC) and the uncertainty in the projected changes is assessed throughout this analysis.The results of this study could assist scientists make informed decisions on variables and methods that should be considered in future climate change impacts’ studies, focusing on the uncertainty component of the impact analysis, by examining a wide range of “hydrologically opposing” future climates. The results of the present study could also be useful for policy makers, who need information relevant to this thesis, in order to decide on planning and legislations regarding climate change adaptation and mitigation.Τα τελευταία χρόνια έχει επιτευχθεί μια μεγάλη ομοφωνία της επιστημονικής κοινότητας ως προς τις αλλαγές του κλίματος που οφείλονται στην αυξημένη συγκέντρωση εκπομπών ανθρωπογενών αερίων του θερμοκηπίου. Οι εκπομπές του διοξειδίου του άνθρακα σε παγκόσμιο επίπεδο, ακολουθούν τα πιο ακραία σενάρια κλιματικής αλλαγής, οδηγώντας σε μελλοντικές παγκόσμιες θερμοκρασίες που πιθανώς να ξεπεράσουν τα όρια-στόχους των +1.5οC και +2οC, και να φτάσουν σε επίπεδα των +4οC ή και ακόμα μεγαλύτερης υπερθέρμανσης στα τέλη του 21ου αιώνα. Η διαθεσιμότητα υδατικών πόρων υπό αυτές τις συνθήκες, είναι ένα ζήτημα εξαιρετικής σημασίας, γεγονός που έχει στρέψει την επιστημονική έρευνα στην εκτίμηση του εύρους των αλλαγών υπό πιθανά μελλοντικά κλιματικά σενάρια και της αποτελεσματικότητας διαφόρων στρατηγικών προσαρμογής στην κλιματική αλλαγή. Το βασικό εργαλείο για την μελέτη του κλίματος είναι η χρήση των παγκόσμιων κλιματικών μοντέλων (GCMs). Τα GCMs βασίζονται σε φυσικούς νόμους που περιγράφουν τα συστατικά μέρη του κλιματικού συστήματος. Το επόμενο βήμα για την μελέτη επιπτώσεων στην υδρολογία είναι η εισαγωγή των δεδομένων από GCMs σε παγκόσμια υδρολογικά μοντέλα (GHMs) ή μοντέλα προσομοίωσης διεργασιών επιφανείας (LSMs). Εξαιτίας των μεροληπτικών σφαλμάτων που εμφανίζουν, τα δεδομένα των GCMs χρειάζονται κάποια είδους διόρθωση πριν χρησιμοποιηθούν ως δεδομένα εισόδου για τα μοντέλα εκτίμησης επιπτώσεων, ιδιαίτερα για μελέτες υδρολογικού χαρακτήρα. Οι περισσότερες τεχνικές διόρθωσης των μεροληπτικών αυτών σφαλμάτων, εστιάζουν στις παραμέτρους της βροχόπτωσης και της θερμοκρασίας. Τα περισσότερα όμως υδρολογικά μοντέλα προηγμένης τεχνολογίας, χρειάζονται πιο πολλές παραμέτρους εισόδου, επιπρόσθετα από την βροχόπτωση και την θερμοκρασία, όπως η ακτινοβολία, η υγρασία, η πίεση και η ταχύτητα του ανέμου. Αν και τα σφάλματα σε αυτές τις επιπρόσθετες παραμέτρους μπορεί να προκαλέσουν προβλήματα στις υδρολογικές προσομοιώσεις, τα χαρακτηριστικά της επίδρασης του μεροληπτικού σφάλματος κάθε παραμέτρου, μεμονωμένα, δεν έχουν μελετηθεί.Στην παρούσα εργασία, παρουσιάζεται ένα μεθοδολογικό πλαίσιο μια πολύπλευρης εκτίμησης των επιπτώσεων ακραίων σεναρίων κλιματικής αλλαγής στο παγκόσμιο υδρολογικό καθεστώς. Το εργαλείο που χρησιμοποιείται για τις υδρολογικές προσομοιώσεις είναι το μοντέλο επιφανειακών διεργασιών JULES, ένα μοντέλο βιοφυσικής βάσης που λειτουργεί σε παγκόσμια κλίμακα. Το πρώτο κομμάτι του μεθοδολογικού πλαισίου είναι η αξιολόγηση των αποτελεσμάτων του μοντέλου για μια πρόσφατη ιστορική περίοδο και η εκτίμηση της ευαισθησίας του στις παραμέτρους εισόδου. Για τη σύγκριση των προσομοιώσεων με μετρήσεις παροχής, σχεδιάστηκε και εφαρμόστηκε ένας αλγόριθμος διόδευσης της απορροής. Το δεύτερο κομμάτι του μεθοδολογικού πλαισίου στοχεύει στην εκτίμηση της επίδρασης των μεροληπτικών σφαλμάτων των GCMs στις προσομοιώσεις της απορροής, ούτως ώστε να ποσοτικοποιηθεί η ευαισθησία και να επιλεχθούν οι μετεωρολογικές παράμετροι που θα πρέπει να ενταχθούν στη διαδικασία διόρθωσης μεροληπτικού σφάλματος. Μια μεθοδολογία για την κατηγοριοποίηση των επιδράσεων των σφάλματων σε τέσσερις κατηγορίες, με βάση το μέγεθος και την ευαισθησία των αλλαγών στην απορροή, αναπτύχθηκε και εφαρμόστηκε για τους παραπάνω σκοπούς. Το τελευταίο κομμάτι του μεθοδολογικού πλαισίου της παρούσας διατριβής είναι η εκτίμηση υδρολογικής φύσεως επιπτώσεων ακραίων σεναρίων κλιματικής αλλαγής. Η εκτίμηση των επιπτώσεων εστιάζει στην διαθεσιμότητα υδατικών πόρων και στις συνθήκες ξηρασίας, σε παγκόσμια, Ευρωπαϊκή και τοπική κλίμακα καθώς και σε επίπεδο λεκάνης απορροής, χρησιμοποιώντας πληθώρα διαφορετικών και συμπληρωματικών μεθόδων. Οι επιπτώσεις της κλιματικής αλλαγής εξετάζονται για διάφορα επίπεδα θέρμανσης (+1.5oC, +2oC και +4oC) ενώ παράλληλα γίνεται και εκτίμηση της αβεβαιότητας στις προβαλλόμενες αλλαγές.Τα αποτελέσματα της παρούσας εργασίας αποσκοπούν να βοηθήσουν την επιστημονική κοινότητα στην λήψη ενημερωμένων αποφάσεων σχετικά με παραμέτρους και μεθόδους που θα πρέπει να ληφθούν υπόψη σε μελλοντικές μελέτες επιπτώσεων της κλιματικής αλλαγής, εστιάζοντας στην αποφυγή της υπερβολικής βεβαιότητας εξετάζοντας μια πληθώρα «υδρολογικά αντιφατικών» κλιματικών προσομοιώσεων. Τα αποτελέσματα της παρούσας εργασίας είναι επίσης χρήσιμα στους φορείς χάραξης κεντρικής πολιτικής σε διακρατικό επίπεδο, καθώς οι τελευταίοι χρειάζονται σχετικές με την παρούσα εργασία πληροφορίες ώστε να αποφασίσουν σε σχέδια και νομοθεσίες σχετικά με την προσαρμογή και την μετρίαση της κλιματικής αλλαγής

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

We project hydrological and ecological impacts in transient climate simulations at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using impacts models driven by new, higher-resolution (approximately 40km – 60km resolution) global atmospheric General Circulation Models driven by patterns of sea surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Temperature-related warm extremes become even warmer, while precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. Hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions, with increased river flooding risk and less severe low flows. However, there are regional uncertainties due to different climate models producing different outcomes, and even when a majority model consensus indicates higher low flows, decreased low flows are still simulated by some models. Risk assessments should therefore consider both wetter and drier outcomes. For terrestrial ecosystems, a key factor may be the level of CO2 concentration that accompanies a specific level of global warming.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen