Persistence and change in interregional differences in entrepreneurship: England and Wales, 1921–2011

The paper explores time-persistence in interregional differences of self-employment rates in England and Wales in the 1921–2011 period by using census data. The results suggest a strong path-dependence in entrepreneurship as past self-employment rates have strong bearing on future ones. However, there is also some rank mobility reflected in the upward movements of London boroughs and downward movements of primarily coastal areas. Rank mobility relates to structural changes, changes in human capital, regional age structures and immigration

A simple and robust method for connecting small-molecule drugs using gene-expression signatures

Interaction of a drug or chemical with a biological system can result in a gene-expression profile or signature characteristic of the event. Using a suitably robust algorithm these signatures can potentially be used to connect molecules with similar pharmacological or toxicological properties. The Connectivity Map was a novel concept and innovative tool first introduced by Lamb et al to connect small molecules, genes, and diseases using genomic signatures [Lamb et al (2006), Science 313, 1929-1935]. However, the Connectivity Map had some limitations, particularly there was no effective safeguard against false connections if the observed connections were considered on an individual-by-individual basis. Further when several connections to the same small-molecule compound were viewed as a set, the implicit null hypothesis tested was not the most relevant one for the discovery of real connections. Here we propose a simple and robust method for constructing the reference gene-expression profiles and a new connection scoring scheme, which importantly allows the valuation of statistical significance of all the connections observed. We tested the new method with the two example gene-signatures (HDAC inhibitors and Estrogens) used by Lamb et al and also a new gene signature of immunosuppressive drugs. Our testing with this new method shows that it achieves a higher level of specificity and sensitivity than the original method. For example, our method successfully identified raloxifene and tamoxifen as having significant anti-estrogen effects, while Lamb et al's Connectivity Map failed to identify these. With these properties our new method has potential use in drug development for the recognition of pharmacological and toxicological properties in new drug candidates.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, and 2 tables; supplementary data supplied as a ZIP fil

Single base mutations in the nucleocapsid gene of SARS-CoV-2 affects amplification efficiency of sequence variants and may lead to assay failure

Reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) is the main diagnostic assay used to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA in respiratory samples. RT-qPCR is performed by specifically targeting the viral genome using complementary oligonucleotides called primers and probes. This approach relies on prior knowledge of the genetic sequence of the target. Viral genetic variants with changes to the primer/probe binding region may reduce the performance of PCR assays and have the potential to cause assay failure. In this work we demonstrate how two single nucleotide variants (SNVs) altered the amplification curve of a diagnostic PCR targeting the Nucleocapsid (N) gene and illustrate how threshold setting can lead to false-negative results even where the variant sequence is amplified. We also describe how in silico analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences available in the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium (COG-UK) and GISAID databases was performed to predict the impact of sequence variation on the performance of 22 published PCR assays. The vast majority of published primer and probe sequences contain sequence mismatches with at least one SARS-CoV-2 lineage. We recommend that visual observation of amplification curves is included as part of laboratory quality procedures, even in high throughput settings where thresholds are set automatically and that in silico analysis is used to monitor the potential impact of new variants on established assays. Ideally comprehensive in silico analysis should be applied to guide selection of highly conserved genomic regions to target with future SARS-CoV-2 PCR assays

Business experience and start-up size: buying more lottery tickets next time around?

This paper explores the determinants of start-up size by focusing on a cohort of 6247 businesses that started trading in 2004, using a unique dataset on customer records at Barclays Bank. Quantile regressions show that prior business experience is significantly related with start-up size, as are a number of other variables such as age, education and bank account activity. Quantile treatment effects (QTE) estimates show similar results, with the effect of business experience on (log) start-up size being roughly constant across the quantiles. Prior personal business experience leads to an increase in expected start-up size of about 50%. Instrumental variable QTE estimates are even higher, although there are concerns about the validity of the instrument

Randomized multicentre pilot study of sacubitril/valsartan versus irbesartan in patients with chronic kidney disease: United Kingdom Heart and Renal Protection (HARP)- III-rationale, trial design and baseline data

Background Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at risk of progression to end-stage renal disease and cardiovascular disease. Data from other populations and animal experiments suggest that neprilysin inhibition (which augments the natriuretic peptide system) may reduce these risks, but clinical trials among patients with CKD are required to test this hypothesis. Methods UK Heart and Renal Protection III (HARP-III) is a multicentre, double-blind, randomized controlled trial comparing sacubitril/valsartan 97/103 mg two times daily (an angiotensin receptor–neprilysin inhibitor) with irbesartan 300 mg one time daily among 414 patients with CKD. Patients ≥18 years of age with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of ≥45 but 20 mg/mmol or eGFR ≥20 but <45 mL/min/1.73 m2 (regardless of uACR) were invited to be screened. Following a 4- to 7-week pre-randomization single-blind placebo run-in phase (during which any current renin–angiotensin system inhibitors were stopped), willing and eligible participants were randomly assigned either sacubitril/valsartan or irbesartan and followed-up for 12 months. The primary aim was to compare the effects of sacubitril/valsartan and irbesartan on measured GFR after 12 months of therapy. Important secondary outcomes include effects on albuminuria, change in eGFR over time and the safety and tolerability of sacubitril/valsartan in CKD. Results Between November 2014 and January 2016, 620 patients attended a screening visit and 566 (91%) entered the pre-randomization run-in phase. Of these, 414 (73%) participants were randomized (mean age 63 years; 72% male). The mean eGFR was 34.0 mL/min/1.73 m2 and the median uACR was 58.5 mg/mmol. Conclusions UK HARP-III will provide important information on the short-term effects of sacubitril/valsartan on renal function, tolerability and safety among patients with CKD

Evaluating Statistical Methods Using Plasmode Data Sets in the Age of Massive Public Databases: An Illustration Using False Discovery Rates

Plasmode is a term coined several years ago to describe data sets that are derived from real data but for which some truth is known. Omic techniques, most especially microarray and genomewide association studies, have catalyzed a new zeitgeist of data sharing that is making data and data sets publicly available on an unprecedented scale. Coupling such data resources with a science of plasmode use would allow statistical methodologists to vet proposed techniques empirically (as opposed to only theoretically) and with data that are by definition realistic and representative. We illustrate the technique of empirical statistics by consideration of a common task when analyzing high dimensional data: the simultaneous testing of hundreds or thousands of hypotheses to determine which, if any, show statistical significance warranting follow-on research. The now-common practice of multiple testing in high dimensional experiment (HDE) settings has generated new methods for detecting statistically significant results. Although such methods have heretofore been subject to comparative performance analysis using simulated data, simulating data that realistically reflect data from an actual HDE remains a challenge. We describe a simulation procedure using actual data from an HDE where some truth regarding parameters of interest is known. We use the procedure to compare estimates for the proportion of true null hypotheses, the false discovery rate (FDR), and a local version of FDR obtained from 15 different statistical methods

Desynchronization of Diurnal Rhythms in Bipolar Disorder and Borderline Personality Disorder

It has long been proposed that diurnal rhythms are disturbed in bipolar disorder (BD). Such changes are obvious in episodes of mania or depression. However, detailed study of patients between episodes has been rare and comparison with other psychiatric disorders rarer still. Our hypothesis was that evidence for desynchronization of diurnal rhythms would be evident in BD and that we could test the specificity of any effect by studying borderline personality disorder (BPD). Individuals with BD (n = 36), BPD (n = 22) and healthy volunteers (HC, n = 25) wore a portable heart rate and actigraphy device and used a smart-phone to record self-assessed mood scores 10 times per day for 1 week. Average diurnal patterns of heart rate (HR), activity and sleep were compared within and across groups. Desynchronization in the phase of diurnal rhythms of HR compared with activity were found in BPD (+3 h) and BD (+1 h), but not in HC. A clear diurnal pattern for positive mood was found in all subject groups. The coherence between negative and irritable mood and HR showed a four-cycle per day component in BD and BPD, which was not present in HC. The findings highlight marked de-synchronisation of measured diurnal function in both BD but particularly BPD and suggest an increased association with negative and irritable mood at ultradian frequencies. These findings enhance our understanding of the underlying physiological changes associated with BPD and BD, and suggest objective markers for monitoring and potential treatment targets. Improved mood stabilisation is a translational objective for management of both patient groups

The impact of human capital on the early success of necessity versus opportunity-based entrepreneurs

This paper examines whether founders' backgrounds influence new firm survival in the early years after startup, focusing, in particular, on the impact of unemployment-driven entrepreneurship. For entrepreneurs who left their previous employment to found a new firm, both general and specific human capital play a key role in enhancing early survival chances. However, various forms of human capital have little effect on early survival of unemployment-driven entrepreneurs, who rely mostly on previous entrepreneurial experience to persevere. Results suggest that pre-entry capabilities play an important role in the early success of opportunity-based entrepreneurs, but have little influence on the early success of necessity-based ones

The impact of human capital on the early success of necessity versus opportunity-based entrepreneurs

This paper examines whether founders' backgrounds influence new firm survival in the early years after startup, focusing, in particular, on the impact of unemployment-driven entrepreneurship. For entrepreneurs who left their previous employment to found a new firm, both general and specific human capital play a key role in enhancing early survival chances. However, various forms of human capital have little effect on early survival of unemployment-driven entrepreneurs, who rely mostly on previous entrepreneurial experience to persevere. Results suggest that pre-entry capabilities play an important role in the early success of opportunity-based entrepreneurs, but have little influence on the early success of necessity-based ones