Dynamic impacts of a financial reform of the CAP on regional land use, income and overall growth

http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/4364

Dynamic impacts of a financial reform of the CAP on regional land use, income and overall growth

In this paper we investigate the impacts of abolishing the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for the post-2013 European Union (EU) financial perspective and the impacts of re-investing the released funds on research and development (R&D). We apply a linked system of models to analyze the impacts for the EU member states. The linked system consists of five land-use sector models (agriculture, forestry, urban area, tourism and transport infrastructure), which are connected to a macro-econometric model. Additionally, a land cover model is used to disaggregate land use countries to a 1 km² grid. Three scenarios are analysed. In the “baseline” currently decided policies are assumed to be continued until 2025. In the “tax rebate” scenario agricultural support (first pillar) is removed, and the member states’ contributions to EU lowered. In the “R&D investments” scenario agricultural support is also removed, and the released funds are used to increase general R&D efforts in the EU. We find that in both liberalization scenarios, agricultural producer prices drop compared to the baseline. Agricultural production drops too, but less so in the “R&D investment” scenario due to productivity gains resulting from the increased R&D spending. In some countries, the productivity gains totally offset the negative impact of liberalisation on agricultural production. Smaller agricultural production implies less agricultural land use, and the more so in the “R&D Investment” scenario where productivity increases. The fall in agricultural production and prices negatively affects economic activity and households’ purchasing power, but the reduced direct taxation compensates this effect and results in a GDP gain of 0.53% and 0.8 million additional jobs. In “R&D investment” GDP gain reaches 2.57% and yields 2.95 million additional jobs in EU in 2025. The GDP, consumption and employment gains in the “R&D Investment” scenario widely exceed the losses in the agriculture sectors. The analysis indicates that if no external effects of agriculture are considered, then the CAP is an inefficient use of tax money, and that a considerable contribution to reaching the goals of the Lisbon agenda would be achieved if the same amount of money was instead invested in R&D.CAP reform, economical growth, land use, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use,

Linking models for land use analysis: experiences from the SENSOR project

In order to quantify the effects of a comprehensive set of policies on land use, interaction between sectors needs to be accounted for, while maintaining a high level of detail for each sector. This calls for a combination of sector specific and sector wide models. This paper describes such a modelling system, with emphasis on the linking of the models to a coherent system. Five sectors of significant importance for land use are modelled individually: Forestry, agriculture, urban land use, transport infrastructure, and tourism. All models are connected as sub-modules to an economy-wide partial econometric model. In addition, a land cover model is used to disaggregate land use down to 1km grid resolution. The linking of such a diverse set of models in a consistent way poses conceptual as well as practical issues. The conceptual issues concern questions such as which items of the models to link, how to obtain a stable joint baseline scenario, and how to obtain a joint equilibrium solution for all models simultaneously in simulation. Practical issues concern the actual implementation of the conceptually sound linkages and provision of a workable technical solution. The linked system allows us to introduce a shock in either of the models, and the set of results will provide a joint solution for all sectors modelled in SENSOR. In this manner, the models take a complex policy scenario as argument and compute a comprehensive set of variables involving all five land use sectors on regional level, which in turn forms a basis for distilling out the impact on sustainability in the form of indicators. Without the extensive automation and technical linkages, it would not have been possible to obtain a joint equilibrium, or it would have required exorbitant amounts of working time.Model linking, sustainable land use, cross sector modelling, iterative recalibration, Land Economics/Use,

Use of Repeated Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Measurements to Improve Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction: An Individual-Participant-Data Meta-Analysis

The added value of incorporating information from repeated blood pressure and cholesterol measurements to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk has not been rigorously assessed. We used data on 191,445 adults from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (38 cohorts from 17 countries with data encompassing 1962-2014) with more than 1 million measurements of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Over a median 12 years of follow-up, 21,170 CVD events occurred. Risk prediction models using cumulative mean values of repeated measurements and summary measures from longitudinal modeling of the repeated measurements were compared with models using measurements from a single time point. Risk discrimination (Cindex) and net reclassification were calculated, and changes in C-indices were meta-analyzed across studies. Compared with the single-time-point model, the cumulative means and longitudinal models increased the C-index by 0.0040 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0023, 0.0057) and 0.0023 (95% CI: 0.0005, 0.0042), respectively. Reclassification was also improved in both models; compared with the single-time-point model, overall net reclassification improvements were 0.0369 (95% CI: 0.0303, 0.0436) for the cumulative-means model and 0.0177 (95% CI: 0.0110, 0.0243) for the longitudinal model. In conclusion, incorporating repeated measurements of blood pressure and cholesterol into CVD risk prediction models slightly improves risk prediction

Pharmacokinetics and Exposure–Response Analyses of Daratumumab in Combination Therapy Regimens for Patients with Multiple Myeloma

Introduction: Daratumumab, a human IgG monoclonal antibody targeting CD38, has demonstrated activity as monotherapy and in combination with standard-of-care regimens in multiple myeloma. Population pharmacokinetic analyses were conducted to determine the pharmacokinetics of intravenous daratumumab in combination therapy versus monotherapy, evaluate the effect of patient- and disease-related covariates on drug disposition, and examine the relationships between daratumumab exposure and efficacy/safety outcomes. Methods: Four clinical studies of daratumumab in combination with lenalidomide/dexamethasone (POLLUX and GEN503); bortezomib/dexamethasone (CASTOR); pomalidomide/dexamethasone, bortezomib/thalidomide/dexamethasone, and bortezomib/melphalan/prednisone (EQUULEUS) were included in the analysis. Using various dosing schedules, the majority of patients (684/694) received daratumumab at a dose of 16 mg/kg. In GEN503, daratumumab was administered at a dose of 2 mg/kg (n = 3), 4 mg/kg (n = 3), 8 mg/kg (n = 4), and 16 mg/kg (n = 34). A total of 650 patients in EQUULEUS (n = 128), POLLUX (n = 282), and CASTOR (n = 240) received daratumumab 16 mg/kg. The exposure–efficacy and exposure–safety relationships examined progression-free survival (PFS) and selected adverse events (infusion-related reactions; thrombocytopenia, anemia, neutropenia, lymphopenia, and infections), respectively. Results: Pharmacokinetic profiles of daratumumab were similar between monotherapy and combination therapy. Covariate analysis identified no clinically important effects on daratumumab exposure, and no dose adjustments were recommended on the basis of these factors. Maximal clinical benefit on PFS was achieved for the majority of patients (approximately 75%) at the 16 mg/kg dose. No apparent relationship was observed between daratumumab exposure and selected adverse events. Conclusion: These data support the recommended 16 mg/kg dose of daratumumab and the respective dosing schedules in the POLLUX and CASTOR pivotal studies. Funding: Janssen Research & Development

The CPLEAR detector at CERN

The CPLEAR collaboration has constructed a detector at CERN for an extensive programme of CP-, T- and CPT-symmetry studies using ${\rm K}^0$ and $\bar{\rm K}^0$ produced by the annihilation of $\bar{\rm p}$'s in a hydrogen gas target. The ${\rm K}^0$ and $\bar{\rm K}^0$ are identified by their companion products of the annihilation ${\rm K}^{\pm} \pi^{\mp}$ which are tracked with multiwire proportional chambers, drift chambers and streamer tubes. Particle identification is carried out with a liquid Cherenkov detector for fast separation of pions and kaons and with scintillators which allow the measurement of time of flight and energy loss. Photons are measured with a lead/gas sampling electromagnetic calorimeter. The required antiproton annihilation modes are selected by fast online processors using the tracking chamber and particle identification information. All the detectors are mounted in a 0.44 T uniform field of an axial solenoid of diameter 2 m and length 3.6 m to form a magnetic spectrometer capable of full on-line reconstruction and selection of events. The design, operating parameters and performance of the sub-detectors are described.

Datatype-generic termination proofs

Datatype-generic programs are programs that are parameterised by a datatype. We review the allegorical foundations of a methodology of designing datatype-generic programs. The notion of F-reductivity, where F parametrises a datatype, is reviewed and a number of its properties are presented. The properties are used to give concise, effective proofs of termination of a number of datatype-generic programming schemas. The paper concludes with a concise proof of the well-foundedness of a datatype-generic occurs-in relation

Dynamic impacts of a financial reform of the CAP on regional land use, income and overall growth

In this paper we investigate the impacts of abolishing the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for the post-2013 European Union (EU) financial perspective and the impacts of re-investing the released funds on research and development (R&D). We apply a linked system of models to analyze the impacts for the EU member states. The linked system consists of five land-use sector models (agriculture, forestry, urban area, tourism and transport infrastructure), which are connected to a macro-econometric model. Additionally, a land cover model is used to disaggregate land use countries to a 1 km² grid. Three scenarios are analysed. In the “baseline” currently decided policies are assumed to be continued until 2025. In the “tax rebate” scenario agricultural support (first pillar) is removed, and the member states’ contributions to EU lowered. In the “R&D investments” scenario agricultural support is also removed, and the released funds are used to increase general R&D efforts in the EU. We find that in both liberalization scenarios, agricultural producer prices drop compared to the baseline. Agricultural production drops too, but less so in the “R&D investment” scenario due to productivity gains resulting from the increased R&D spending. In some countries, the productivity gains totally offset the negative impact of liberalisation on agricultural production. Smaller agricultural production implies less agricultural land use, and the more so in the “R&D Investment” scenario where productivity increases. The fall in agricultural production and prices negatively affects economic activity and households’ purchasing power, but the reduced direct taxation compensates this effect and results in a GDP gain of 0.53% and 0.8 million additional jobs. In “R&D investment” GDP gain reaches 2.57% and yields 2.95 million additional jobs in EU in 2025. The GDP, consumption and employment gains in the “R&D Investment” scenario widely exceed the losses in the agriculture sectors. The analysis indicates that if no external effects of agriculture are considered, then the CAP is an inefficient use of tax money, and that a considerable contribution to reaching the goals of the Lisbon agenda would be achieved if the same amount of money was instead invested in R&D