The impact of the 2014 platinum mining strike in South Africa : an economy-wide analysis

In this paper we measure the economy-wide impact of the 2014 labour strike in South Africa's platinum industry. The strike lasted 5 months, ending in June 2014 when producers reached an agreement with the main labour unions. The immediate impacts on local mining towns were particularly severe, but our research shows that the strike could also have long lasting negative impacts on the South African economy as a whole. We find that it is not the higher nominal wages itself that caused the most damage, but the possible reaction by investors in the mining industry towards South Africa. Investor confidence is likely to be, at least, temporarily harmed, in which case it would take many years for the effects of the strike to disappear.We conduct our analysis using a dynamic CGE model of South Africa.http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecmod2016-12-31hb201

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe

In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade−1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice-covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade−1) to ice-free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade−1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes.Peer reviewe

A global database of lake surface temperatures collected by in situ and satellite methods from 1985–2009

Peer reviewe

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe

peer reviewedIn this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade-1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors - from seasonally ice-covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade-1) to ice-free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade-1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe

Peer reviewed. ©2015. The Authors.This is an open access article under theterms of the Creative CommonsAttribution-NonCommercial-N oDerivsLicense, which permits use and distri-bution in any medium, provided theoriginal work is properly cited, the use isnon-commerc ial and no modificationsor adaptations are made.In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade 1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors —from seasonally ice-covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade 1) to ice-free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade 1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes

The influence of galactic cosmic rays on ion-neutral hydrocarbon chemistry in the upper atmospheres of free-floating exoplanets

The authors highlight financial support of the European Community under the FP7 by an ERC starting grant.Cosmic rays may be linked to the formation of volatiles necessary for prebiotic chemistry. We explore the effect of cosmic rays in a hydrogen-dominated atmosphere, as a proof-of-concept that ion–neutral chemistry may be important for modelling hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. In order to accomplish this, we utilize Monte Carlo cosmic ray transport models with particle energies of 106 eV<E<1012 eV in order to investigate the cosmic-ray enhancement of free electrons in substellar atmospheres. Ion–neutral chemistry is then applied to a Drift–Phoenix model of a free-floating giant gas planet. Our results suggest that the activation of ion–neutral chemistry in the upper atmosphere significantly enhances formation rates for various species, and we find that C2H2, C2H4, NH3, C6H6 and possibly C10H are enhanced in the upper atmospheres because of cosmic rays. Our results suggest a potential connection between cosmic-ray chemistry and the hazes observed in the upper atmospheres of various extrasolar planets. Chemi-ionization reactions are briefly discussed, as they may enhance the degree of ionization in the cloud layer.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Evaluating the impact of automation in long-haul trucking in the United States using USAGE-Hwy

The specific focus of this study is the impact of automation in long-haul trucking. In the US, long-haul trucking is a segment of the two NAICS industries: 484000 “For-hire truck transportation”; and 47OT.484 “In-house truck transportation”. We assume that it is likely that the long-haul segment will be the first to be impacted (compared to other segments of heavy truck and tractor-trailer driving) because: 1. Current driving automation system development focuses on limited access highways because they are a less-complex environment than surface streets; 2. Unlike the short-haul segment, the long-haul segment involves long periods of uninterrupted highway driving; and 3. Long-haul drivers have fewer non-driving responsibilities than short-haul drivers. To conduct this analysis, we use the Centre of Policy Studies’ USAGE-Hwy model of the United States economy. USAGE-Hwy will be used to simulate the impact of the adoption of automation in long-haul trucking in the US through the following factors: Labour-saving technological change; Fuel cost savings; Capital-saving technological change; Fatalitie

The Economic Consequences of U.S. Border Closure in Response to a Security Threat: A Dynamic CGE Assessment

We investigate the economic consequences of a twelve-month closure of U.S. borders in the form of cessation of trade, tourism and immigration flows. The federal government might contemplate such action in the face of an extreme terrorism or public health threat. Using a computable general equilibrium model, we find that border closure would cause substantial economic loss. However this damage is significantly reduced when critical imports (such as energy) are either exempted from the policy, or made available through use of domestic stockpiles (such as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve). Economic damage is reduced further if workers accept lower real wages for the duration of the security crisis. We argue that if border closure were ever to be contemplated as a response to a security or public health threat, it would be prudent to keep its scope to a minimum, to make its duration as short as possible, to allow market responses to run their course, and to enact countervailing policies that can help minimize the economic losses

Alfvén ionization in exoplanetary atmospheres

Observations of continuous radio and sporadic X-ray emission from low-mass objects suggest such objects harbour an atmospheric, localized plasma. For lowmass objects, the degree of thermal ionization is insufficient to qualify the ionized gas as a plasma, posing the question: what ionization processes can efficiently produce the required plasma? We propose Alfvén ionization as a simple mechanism for producing localized pockets of ionized gas in the atmosphere, having sufficiently large degrees of ionization (≥ 10^-7) that they constitute plasmas. We outline the criteria required for Alfvén ionization to occur and justify it's applicability in the atmospheres of low-mass objects such as giant gas planets, brown dwarfs and M-dwarfs for both solar and sub-solar metallicities. We find that Alfvén ionization is most efficient at mid to low atmospheric pressures where a seed plasma is easier to magnetize and the pressure gradients needed to drive the required neutral flows are the smallest. For the model atmospheres considered, our results show that degrees of ionization ranging from 10^-6-1 can be obtained. Observable consequences include continuum Bremsstrahlung emission, superimposed with spectral lines from the plasma ion species (e.g. He, Mg, H2 or CO lines). Forbidden lines are also expected from the metastable population as a consequence of the Penning Effect. The presence of an atmospheric plasma opens the door to a multitude of plasma and chemical processes not yet considered in current atmospheric models