An Efficient Method for Computing Expected Value of Sample Information for Survival Data from an Ongoing Trial

BACKGROUND: Decisions about new health technologies are increasingly being made while trials are still in an early stage, which may result in substantial uncertainty around key decision drivers such as estimates of life expectancy and time to disease progression. Additional data collection can reduce uncertainty, and its value can be quantified by computing the expected value of sample information (EVSI), which has typically been described in the context of designing a future trial. In this article, we develop new methods for computing the EVSI of extending an existing trial's follow-up, first for an assumed survival model and then extending to capture uncertainty about the true survival model. METHODS: We developed a nested Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure and a nonparametric regression-based method. We compared the methods by computing single-model and model-averaged EVSI for collecting additional follow-up data in 2 synthetic case studies. RESULTS: There was good agreement between the 2 methods. The regression-based method was fast and straightforward to implement, and scales easily included any number of candidate survival models in the model uncertainty case. The nested Monte Carlo procedure, on the other hand, was extremely computationally demanding when we included model uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: We present a straightforward regression-based method for computing the EVSI of extending an existing trial's follow-up, both where a single known survival model is assumed and where we are uncertain about the true survival model. EVSI for ongoing trials can help decision makers determine whether early patient access to a new technology can be justified on the basis of the current evidence or whether more mature evidence is needed. HIGHLIGHTS: Decisions about new health technologies are increasingly being made while trials are still in an early stage, which may result in substantial uncertainty around key decision drivers such as estimates of life-expectancy and time to disease progression. Additional data collection can reduce uncertainty, and its value can be quantified by computing the expected value of sample information (EVSI), which has typically been described in the context of designing a future trial.In this article, we have developed new methods for computing the EVSI of extending a trial's follow-up, both where a single known survival model is assumed and where we are uncertain about the true survival model. We extend a previously described nonparametric regression-based method for computing EVSI, which we demonstrate in synthetic case studies is fast, straightforward to implement, and scales easily to include any number of candidate survival models in the EVSI calculations.The EVSI methods that we present in this article can quantify the need for collecting additional follow-up data before making an adoption decision given any decision-making context

Pulmonary oxidative stress response in young children with cystic fibrosis

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that oxidative stress contributes to lung injury in cystic fibrosis. There is, however, no direct evidence of increased pulmonary oxidative stress in cystic fibrosis nor of the effects of inflammation on the major pulmonary antioxidant, glutathione. A study was undertaken to measure these parameters in infants and young children in the presence or absence of pulmonary inflammation. METHODS: Thirty two infants and young children with cystic fibrosis of mean (SD) age 21.4 (15.3) months (range 2-54) and seven non-cystic fibrosis control subjects of mean (SD) age 21.0 (21.2) months (range 2-54) were studied using bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL). On the basis of the BAL findings the cystic fibrosis group was divided into those with (CF-I) and those without pulmonary inflammation (CF- NI). Levels of lipid hydroperoxide, total glutathione, and gamma- glutamyl transpeptidase (gamma-GT) were then measured in the BAL fluid. RESULTS: The concentrations of lipid hydroperoxide and gamma-GT in the epithelial lining fluid were significantly increased in the CF-I group compared with the control and CF-NI groups, each of which had similar values for these parameters (ratio of geometric means for CF-I group versus control for lipid hydroperoxide 5.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8 to 15.8) and for gamma-GT 5.2 (95% CI 1.4 to 19.4)). The glutathione concentration tended to be lower in the CF-I subjects but the difference did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that the airways in patients with cystic fibrosis are exposed to increased oxidative stress which appears to be a consequence of pulmonary inflammation rather than part of the primary cystic fibrosis defect. The increase in gamma-GT in the CF-I group suggests a mechanism by which extracellular glutathione could be utilised by airway epithelial cells. 



Non-polar lipids accumulate during storage of transfusion products and do not contribute to the onset of transfusion-related acute lung injury

Background and ObjectivesThe accumulation of non-polar lipids arachidonic acid, 5-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid (HETE), 12-HETE and 15-HETE during storage of transfusion products may play a role in the onset of transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI), a syndrome of respiratory distress after transfusion. Materials and MethodsWe investigated non-polar lipid accumulation in red blood cells (RBCs) stored for 42 days, plasma stored for 7 days at either 4 or 20 degrees C and platelet (PLT) transfusion products stored for 7 days. Furthermore, we investigated whether transfusion of RBCs with increased levels of non-polar lipids induces TRALI in a two-hit' human volunteer model. All products were produced following Dutch Blood Bank protocols and are according to European standards. Non-polar lipids were measured with high-performance liquid chromotography followed by mass spectrometry. ResultsAll non-polar lipids increased in RBCs after 21 days of storage compared to baseline. The non-polar lipid concentration in plasma increased significantly, and the increase was even more pronounced in products stored at 20 degrees C. In platelets, baseline levels of 5-HETE and 15-HETE were higher than in RBCs or plasma. However, the non-polar lipids did not change significantly during storage of PLT products. Infusion of RBCs with increased levels of non-polar lipids did not induce TRALI in LPS-primed human volunteers. ConclusionWe conclude that non-polar lipids accumulate in RBC and plasma transfusion products and that accumulation is temperature dependent. Accumulation of non-polar lipids does not appear to explain the onset of TRALI (Dutch Trial Register - NTR4455

The Tactual Profile: Development of a procedure to assess the tactual functioning of children who are blind

Contains fulltext : 77264.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access)The Tactual Profile assesses tactual functioning of children with severe visual impairments between 0 and 16 years of age. The Tactual Profile consists of 430 items, measuring tactile skills required for performing everyday tasks at home and in school. Items are graded according to age level and divided into three domains: tactual sensory, tactual motor and tactual perceptual. The development of the instrument is described and the psychometric properties that were studied reported. Most items had an acceptable difficulty level, and test—retest reliability proved to be good. The analyses for the construct validity showed moderately high correlations between the Tactual Profile and intelligence tests. These correlations were higher for the haptic performance subtests than for the verbal tests. High correlations with other haptic tests were found. However, these associations disappeared after factoring out intelligence, possibly because current methods for examining tactual functioning are strongly affected by intelligence. A summary of work planned in further development of the procedure is provided

Mutations in PCYT2 disrupt etherlipid biosynthesis and cause a complex hereditary spastic paraplegia

CTP:phosphoethanolamine cytidylyltransferase (ET), encoded by PCYT2, is the rate-limiting enzyme for phosphatidylethanolamine synthesis via the CDP-ethanolamine pathway. Phosphatidylethanolamine is one of the most abundant membrane lipids and is particularly enriched in the brain. We identified five individuals with biallelic PCYT2 variants clinically characterized by global developmental delay with regression, spastic para- or tetraparesis, epilepsy and progressive cerebral and cerebellar atrophy. Using patient fibroblasts we demonstrated that these variants are hypomorphic, result in altered but residual ET protein levels and concomitant reduced enzyme activity without affecting mRNA levels. The significantly better survival of hypomorphic CRISPR-Cas9 generated pcyt2 zebrafish knockout compared to a complete knockout, in conjunction with previously described data on the Pcyt2 mouse model, indicates that complete loss of ET function may be incompatible with life in vertebrates. Lipidomic analysis revealed profound lipid abnormalities in patient fibroblasts impacting both neutral etherlipid and etherphospholipid metabolism. Plasma lipidomics studies also identified changes in etherlipids that have the potential to be used as biomarkers for ET deficiency. In conclusion, our data establish PCYT2 as a disease gene for a new complex hereditary spastic paraplegia and confirm that etherlipid homeostasis is important for the development and function of the brain