Climate prediction of El Niño malaria epidemics in north-west Tanzania

Malaria is a significant public health problem in Tanzania. Approximately 16 million malaria cases are reported every year and 100,000 to 125,000 deaths occur. Although most of Tanzania is endemic to malaria, epidemics occur in the highlands, notably in Kagera, a region that was subject to widespread malaria epidemics in 1997 and 1998. This study examined the relationship between climate and malaria incidence in Kagera with the aim of determining whether seasonal forecasts may assist in predicting malaria epidemics. A regression analysis was performed on retrospective malaria and climatic data during each of the two annual malaria seasons to determine the climatic factors influencing malaria incidence. The ability of the DEMETER seasonal forecasting system in predicting the climatic anomalies associated with malaria epidemics was then assessed for each malaria season. It was found that malaria incidence is positively correlated with rainfall during the first season (Oct-Mar) (R-squared = 0.73, p < 0.01). For the second season (Apr-Sep), high malaria incidence was associated with increased rainfall, but also with high maximum temperature during the first rainy season (multiple R-squared = 0.79, p < 0.01). The robustness of these statistical models was tested by excluding the two epidemic years from the regression analysis. DEMETER would have been unable to predict the heavy El Niño rains associated with the 1998 epidemic. Nevertheless, this epidemic could still have been predicted using the temperature forecasts alone. The 1997 epidemic could have been predicted from observed temperatures in the preceding season, but the consideration of the rainfall forecasts would have improved the temperature-only forecasts over the remaining years. These results demonstrate the potential of a seasonal forecasting system in the development of a malaria early warning system in Kagera region

Determinants for a low health-related quality of life in asthmatics

People with asthma suffer from impaired health-related quality of life (HRQL), but the determinants of HRQL among asthmatics are not completely understood. The aim of this investigation was to study determinants of low HRQL in asthmatics and to study whether the determinants of HRQL differ between sexes and age groups. A cohort of three age groups in Sweden was investigated in 1990 using a questionnaire with focus on respiratory symptoms. To study quality of life, the generic instrument Gothenburg Quality of Life was used. The participants were also investigated with interviews, spirometry, and allergy testing. Asthma was diagnosed in 616 subjects. Fifty-eight per cent (n = 359) of the subjects were women; and 24% were smokers, 22% ex-smokers, and 54% were non-smokers. Women were more likely than men to report poor health-related quality of life. Respiratory symptoms severity was another independent determinant of a lower quality of life as well as airway responsiveness to irritants. Current and former smokers also reported lower quality of life. Finally, absenteeism from school and work was associated with lower quality of life. Factors such as sex, smoking habits, airway responsiveness to irritants, respiratory symptom severity, allergy, and absenteeism from school and work were associated with low HRQL in asthmatics

Mortality rate of patients with asymptomatic primary biliary cirrhosis diagnosed at age 55 years or older is similar to that of the general population

Recent routine testing for liver function and anti-mitochondrial antibodies has increased the number of newly diagnosed patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). This study investigated the prognosis of asymptomatic PBC patients, focusing on age difference, to clarify its effect on the prognosis of PBC patients. The study was a systematic cohort analysis of 308 consecutive patients diagnosed with asymptomatic PBC. We compared prognosis between the elderly (55 years or older at the time of diagnosis) and the young patients (< 55 years). The mortality rate of the patients was also compared with that of an age- and gender-matched general population. The elderly patients showed a higher aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio, and lower alanine aminotransferase level than the young patients (P < 0.01 and P = 0.03, respectively). The two groups showed similar values for alkaline phosphatase and immunoglobulin M. Death in the young patients was more likely to be due to liver failure (71%), while the elderly were likely to die from other causes before the occurrence of liver failure (88%; P < 0.01), especially from malignancies (35%). The mortality rate of the elderly patients was not different from that of the age- and gender-matched general population (standardized mortality ratio, 1.1; 95% confidence interval, 0.6-1.7), although this rate was significantly higher than that of the young patients (P = 0.044). PBC often presents as more advanced disease in elderly patients than in the young. However, the mortality rate of the elderly patients is not different from that of an age- and gender-matched general population

Importance of synovial fluid aspiration when injecting intra-articular corticosteroids

OBJECTIVE—The aim of this prospective study was to find if a complete synovial fluid aspiration before injecting intra-articular corticosteroids influences the treatment result.
METHODS—The study was performed in 147 patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). One hundred and ninety one knees with synovitis were randomised to arthrocentesis (n=95) or no arthrocentesis (n=96) before 20 mg triamcinolone hexacetonide was injected. The duration of effect was followed up for a period of six months. All patients were instructed to contact the rheumatology department if signs and symptoms from the treated knee recurred. If arthritis could be confirmed by a clinical examination a relapse was noted.
RESULTS—There was a significant reduction of relapse in the arthrocentesis group (p=0.001).
CONCLUSION—The study shows that aspiration of synovial fluid can reduce the risk for arthritis relapse when treating RA patients with intra-articular corticosteroids. It is concluded that arthrocentesis shall be included in the intra-articular corticosteroid injection procedure.


Malaria Journal 2007, 6:162 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-6-162

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Climate prediction of El Niño malaria epidemics in north-west Tanzania-1

<p><b>Copyright information:</b></p><p>Taken from "Climate prediction of El Niño malaria epidemics in north-west Tanzania"</p><p>http://www.malariajournal.com/content/6/1/162</p><p>Malaria Journal 2007;6():162-162.</p><p>Published online 6 Dec 2007</p><p>PMCID:PMC2228309.</p><p></p>anuary period and the log malaria anomalies from October to March, while the second season corresponds to the climatic anomalies during the February to July period and the log malaria anomalies from April to September. The anomalies were standardized by subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard deviation