Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes

The warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by an increase in global temperatures by 0.8 °C over the past century. However, the attribution of the observed warming to human activities remains less clear, particularly because of the apparent slow-down in warming since the late 1990s. Here we analyse radiative forcing and temperature time series with state-of-the-art statistical methods to address this question without climate model simulations. We show that long-term trends in total radiative forcing and temperatures have largely been determined by atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and modulated by other radiative factors. We identify a pronounced increase in the growth rates of both temperatures and radiative forcing around 1960, which marks the onset of sustained global warming. Our analyses also reveal a contribution of human interventions to two periods when global warming slowed down. Our statistical analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s. Furthermore, we identify a contribution from the two world wars and the Great Depression to the documented cooling in the mid-twentieth century, through lower carbon dioxide emissions. We conclude that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are effective in slowing the rate of warming in the short term.F.E. acknowledges financial support from the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (http://www.conacyt.gob.mx) under grant CONACYT-310026, as well as from PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. (CONACYT-310026 - Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia; PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico

Velocity shear and current driven instability in a collisional F-region

We have studied how the presence of collisions affects the behavior of instabilities triggered by a combination of shears and parallel currents in the ionosphere under a variety of ion to electron temperature ratios. To this goal we have numerically solved a kinetic dispersion relation, using a relaxation model to describe the effects of ion and electron collisions. We have compared our solutions to expressions derived in a fluid limit which applied only to large electron to ion temperature ratios. We have limited our study to threshold conditions for the current density and the shears. We have studied how the threshold varies as a function of the wave-vector angle direction and as a function of frequency. As expected, we have found that for low frequencies and/or elevated ion to electron temperature ratios, the kinetic dispersion relation has to be used to evaluate the threshold conditions. We have also found that ion velocity shears can significantly lower the field-aligned threshold current needed to trigger the instability, especially for wave-vectors close to the perpendicular to the magnetic field. However the current density and shear requirements remain significantly higher than if collisions are neglected. Therefore, for ionospheric F-region applications, the effect of collisions should be included in the calculation of instabilities associated with horizontal shears in the vertical flow. Furthermore, in many situations of interest the kinetic solutions should be used instead of the fluid limit, in spite of the fact that the latter can be shown to produce qualitatively valid solutions

Generalized nonuniform dichotomies and local stable manifolds

We establish the existence of local stable manifolds for semiflows generated by nonlinear perturbations of nonautonomous ordinary linear differential equations in Banach spaces, assuming the existence of a general type of nonuniform dichotomy for the evolution operator that contains the nonuniform exponential and polynomial dichotomies as a very particular case. The family of dichotomies considered allow situations for which the classical Lyapunov exponents are zero. Additionally, we give new examples of application of our stable manifold theorem and study the behavior of the dynamics under perturbations.Comment: 18 pages. New version with minor corrections and an additional theorem and an additional exampl

Improvement of the Embarrassingly Parallel Search for Data Centers

International audienceWe propose an adaptation of the Embarrassingly Parallel Search (EPS) method for data centers. EPS is a simple but efficient method for parallel solving of CSPs. EPS decomposes the problem in many distinct subproblems which are then solved independently by workers. EPS performed well on multi-cores machines (40), but some issues arise when using more cores in a datacenter. Here, we identify the decomposition as the cause of the degradation and propose a parallel decomposition to address this issue. Thanks to it, EPS gives almost linear speedup and outperforms work stealing by orders of magnitude using the Gecode solver

Pan-Arctic soil element availability estimations

Arctic soils store large amounts of organic carbon and other elements, such as amorphous silicon, silicon, calcium, iron, aluminum, and phosphorous. Global warming is projected to be most pronounced in the Arctic, leading to thawing permafrost which, in turn, changes the soil element availability. To project how biogeochemical cycling in Arctic ecosystems will be affected by climate change, there is a need for data on element availability. Here, we analyzed the amorphous silicon (ASi) content as a solid fraction of the soils as well as Mehlich III extractions for the bioavailability of silicon (Si), calcium (Ca), iron (Fe), phosphorus (P), and aluminum (Al) from 574 soil samples from the circumpolar Arctic region. We show large differences in the ASi fraction and in Si, Ca, Fe, Al, and P availability among different lithologies and Arctic regions. We summarize these data in pan-Arctic maps of the ASi fraction and available Si, Ca, Fe, P, and Al concentrations, focusing on the top 100 cm of Arctic soil. Furthermore, we provide element availability values for the organic and mineral layers of the seasonally thawing active layer as well as for the uppermost permafrost layer. Our spatially explicit data on differences in the availability of elements between the different lithological classes and regions now and in the future will improve Arctic Earth system models for estimating current and future carbon and nutrient feedbacks under climate change (https://doi.org/10.17617/3.8KGQUN, Schaller and Goeckede, 2022).</p

On conformal measures and harmonic functions for group extensions

We prove a Perron-Frobenius-Ruelle theorem for group extensions of topological Markov chains based on a construction of $\sigma$-finite conformal measures and give applications to the construction of harmonic functions.Comment: To appear in Proceedings of "New Trends in Onedimensional Dynamics, celebrating the 70th birthday of Welington de Melo

Modelling UK house prices with structural breaks and conditional variance analysis

This paper differs from previous research by examining the existence of structural breaks in the UK regional house prices as well as in the prices of the different property types (flats, terraced, detached and semi-detached houses) in the UK as a whole, motivated by the uncertainty in the UK housing market and various financial events that may lead to structural changes within the housing market. Our paper enhances the conventional unit root tests by allowing for structural breaks, while including structural break tests strengthens our analysis. Our empirical results support the existence of structural breaks in the mean equation in seven out of thirteen regions of the UK as well as in three out of four property types, and in the variance equation in six regions and three property types. In addition, using a multivariate GARCH approach we examine both the behaviour of variances and covariances of the house price returns over time. Our results have significant implications for appropriate economic policy selection and investment management