Forecasting the combined effects of anticipated climate change and agricultural conservation practices on fish recruitment dynamics in Lake Erie

Many aquatic ecosystems are experiencing multiple anthropogenic stressors that threaten their ability to support ecologically and economically important fish species. Two of the most ubiquitous stressors are climate change and non- point source nutrient pollution.Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs, i.e. farming practices that reduce runoff, prevent erosion, and curb excessive nutrient loading) offer a potential means to mitigate the negative effects of non- point source pollution on fish populations. However, our understanding of how ACP implementation amidst a changing climate will affect fish production in large ecosystems that receive substantial upstream sediment and nutrient inputs remains incomplete.Towards this end, we explored how anticipated climate change and the implementation of realistic ACPs might alter the recruitment dynamics of three fish populations (native walleye Sander vitreus and yellow perch Perca flavescens and invasive white perch Morone americana) in the highly productive, dynamic west basin of Lake Erie. We projected future (2020- 2065) recruitment under different combinations of anticipated climate change (n = 2 levels) and ACP implementation (n = 4 levels) in the western Lake Erie catchment using predictive biological models driven by forecasted winter severity, spring warming rate, and Maumee River total phosphorus loads that were generated from linked climate, catchment- hydrology, and agricultural- practice- simulation models.In general, our models projected reduced walleye and yellow perch recruitment whereas invasive white perch recruitment was projected to remain stable or increase relative to the recent past. Our modelling also suggests the potential for trade- offs, as ACP implementation was projected to reduce yellow perch recruitment with anticipated climate change.Overall, our study presents a useful modelling framework to forecast fish recruitment in Lake Erie and elsewhere, as well as offering projections and new avenues of research that could help resource management agencies and policy- makers develop adaptive and resilient management strategies in the face of anticipated climate and land- management change.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/156436/2/fwb13515.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/156436/1/fwb13515_am.pd

Cross‐scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used

Supplementary files: WARM-D-22-00524

These are supplementary files for the manuscript entitled: A Long-term Global Comparison of IMERG and CFSR with Surface Precipitation Stations.This paper is submitted in 'Water Resources Management' Journal and under review. Table S1, Table S5 and Table S6 are the Excel files. The rest of the Figures and Tables are available inside the word file namely ‘Supplementary_IMERGpaper’

WARM-D-22-00524

These are supplementary files for the manuscript entitled: A Long-term Global Comparison of IMERG and CFSR with Surface Precipitation Stations.This paper is submitted in 'Water Resources Management' Journal and under review. Table S2, Table S5 and Table S6 are the Excel files. The rest of the Figures and Tables are available inside the word file namely ‘Supplementary_IMERGpaper’

WARM-D-22-00524

These are supplementary files for the manuscript entitled: A Long-term Global Comparison of IMERG and CFSR with Surface Precipitation Stations.This paper is submitted in 'Water Resources Management' Journal and under review. Table S2, Table S5 and Table S6 are the Excel files. The rest of the Figures and Tables are available inside the word file namely ‘Supplementary_IMERGpaper’.THIS DATASET IS ARCHIVED AT DANS/EASY, BUT NOT ACCESSIBLE HERE. TO VIEW A LIST OF FILES AND ACCESS THE FILES IN THIS DATASET CLICK ON THE DOI-LINK ABOV

Supplementary files: WARM-D-22-00524

These are supplementary files for the manuscript entitled: A Long-term Global Comparison of IMERG and CFSR with Surface Precipitation Stations.This paper is submitted in 'Water Resources Management' Journal and under review. Table S1, Table S5 and Table S6 are the Excel files. The rest of the Figures and Tables are available inside the word file namely ‘Supplementary_IMERGpaper’.THIS DATASET IS ARCHIVED AT DANS/EASY, BUT NOT ACCESSIBLE HERE. TO VIEW A LIST OF FILES AND ACCESS THE FILES IN THIS DATASET CLICK ON THE DOI-LINK ABOV

Assessing the implications of water harvesting intensification on upstream-downstream ecosystem services: A case study in the Lake Tana basin

Water harvesting systems have improved productivity in various regions in sub-Saharan Africa. Similary, they can help retain water in landscapes, build resilience against droughts and dry spells, and thereby contribute to sustainable agricultural intensification. However, there is no strong empirical evidence that shows the effects of intensification of water harvesting on upstream-downstream social-ecological systems at a landscape scale. In this paper we develop a decision support system (DSS) for locating and sizing water harvesting ponds in a hydrological model, which enables assessments of water harvesting intensificatin on upstream-downstream ecosystem services in meso-scale watersheds. The DSS was used with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for a case-study area located in the Lake Tana basin, Ethiopia. We found that supplementary irrigation in combination with nutrient application increased simulated teff ('Eragrostis tef', staple crop in Ethiopa) production up to three times, compared to the current practice. Moreover, after supplemental irrigation of teff, the excess water was used for dry season onion production of 7.66 t/a (median). Water harvesting, therefore, can play an important role in increasing local- to regional-scale food security through increased and more stable food production and generation of extra income from the sale of cash crops. The annual total irrigation water consumption was ~ 4%.30% of the annual water yield from the entire watershed. In general, water harveting resulted in a reduction in peak flows and an increase in low flows. Water harvesting substantially reduced sediment yield leaving the watershed. The beneficiaries of water harvesting ponds may benefit from increases in agricultural production. The downstream social-ecological systems may benefit from reduced food prices, reduced flooding damages, and reduced sediment influxes, as well as enhancements in low flows and water quality. The benefits of water harvesting warrant economic feasibility studies and detailed analyses of its ecological impacts

Compartment Modeling for Flow Characterization of Underground Coal Gasification Cavity

During underground coal gasification (UCG), a cavity is formed in the coal seam when coal is converted to gaseous products. This cavity grows three dimensionally in a nonlinear fashion as gasification proceeds. The cavity shape is determined by the flow field, which is a strong function of various parameters such as the position and orientation of the inlet nozzle and the temperature distribution and coal properties such as thermal conductivity. In addition to the complex flow patterns in the UCG cavity, several phenomena occur simultaneously. They include chemical reactions (both homogeneous and heterogeneous), water influx, thermomechanical failure of the coal, heat and mass transfer, and so on. Thus, enormous computational efforts are required to simulate the performance of UCG through a mathematical model. It is therefore necessary to simplify the modeling approach for relatively quick but reliable predictions for application in process design and optimization. The primary objective of this work is to understand the velocity distribution and quantify the nonideal flow patterns in a UCG cavity by performing residence time distribution (RTD) studies using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The methodology of obtaining RTD by CFD is validated by means of of representative laboratory-scale tracer experiments. Based on the RTD studies, the actual UCG cavity at different times is modeled as a simplified network of ideal reactors, called compartments. The compartment model thus obtained could offer a computationally less expensive and easier option for determining UCG process performance at any given time, when used in a reactor-scale model including reactions. The network of ideal reactors can be easily simulated using a flowsheet simulator (e.g., Aspen Plus). We illustrate the proposed modeling approach by presenting selected simulation results for a single gas-phase second-order water gas shift reaction

Laboratory studies on cavity growth and product gas composition in the context of underground coal gasification

Systematic laboratory scale experiments on coal blocks can provide significant insight into the underground coal gasification (UCG) process. Our earlier work has demonstrated the various features of the early UCG cavity shape and rate of growth through lab-scale experiments on coal combustion, wherein the feed gas is oxygen. In this paper, we study the feasibility of in situ gasification of coal in a similar laboratory scale reactor set-up, under conditions relevant for field practice of UCG, using an oxygen-steam mixture as the feed gas. By performing the gasification reaction in a cyclic manner, we have been able to obtain a product gas with hydrogen concentrations as high as 39% and a calorific value of 178 kJ/mol. The effect of various operating parameters such as feed temperature, feed steam to oxygen ratio, initial combustion time and so on, on the product gas composition is studied and the optimum operating conditions in order to achieve desired conversion to syngas, are determined. We also study the effect of various design and operating parameters on the evolution of the gasification cavity. Empirical correlations are proposed for the change in cavity volume and its dimensions in various directions. The results of the previous study on the combustion cavity evolution are compared with this gasification study. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved