Futures Prices in Supply Analysis: Are Instrumental Variables Necessary?

Citation: Nathan P. Hendricks, Joseph P. Janzen, Aaron Smith; Futures Prices in Supply Analysis: Are Instrumental Variables Necessary?, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Volume 97, Issue 1, 1 January 2015, Pages 22–39, https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau062Crop yield shocks are partially predictable—high planting-time futures prices have tended to indicate that yield would be below trend. As a result, regressions of total caloric production on futures prices produce estimates of the supply elasticity that are biased downwards by up to 75%. Regressions of the world’s growing area on futures prices have a much smaller bias of about 20% because although yield shocks are partially predictable, this predictability has a relatively small effect on land allocation. We argue that the preferred method for estimating the crop supply elasticity is to use regressions of growing area on futures prices and to include the realized yield shock as a control variable. An alternative method for bias reduction is to use instrumental variables (IVs). We show that the marginal contribution of an IV to bias reduction is small—IVs are not necessary for futures prices in supply analysis

Grain Boundary Loops in Graphene

Topological defects can affect the physical properties of graphene in unexpected ways. Harnessing their influence may lead to enhanced control of both material strength and electrical properties. Here we present a new class of topological defects in graphene composed of a rotating sequence of dislocations that close on themselves, forming grain boundary loops that either conserve the number of atoms in the hexagonal lattice or accommodate vacancy/interstitial reconstruction, while leaving no unsatisfied bonds. One grain boundary loop is observed as a "flower" pattern in scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) studies of epitaxial graphene grown on SiC(0001). We show that the flower defect has the lowest energy per dislocation core of any known topological defect in graphene, providing a natural explanation for its growth via the coalescence of mobile dislocations.Comment: 23 pages, 7 figures. Revised title; expanded; updated reference

Information-theoretic equilibration: the appearance of irreversibility under complex quantum dynamics

The question of how irreversibility can emerge as a generic phenomena when the underlying mechanical theory is reversible has been a long-standing fundamental problem for both classical and quantum mechanics. We describe a mechanism for the appearance of irreversibility that applies to coherent, isolated systems in a pure quantum state. This equilibration mechanism requires only an assumption of sufficiently complex internal dynamics and natural information-theoretic constraints arising from the infeasibility of collecting an astronomical amount of measurement data. Remarkably, we are able to prove that irreversibility can be understood as typical without assuming decoherence or restricting to coarse-grained observables, and hence occurs under distinct conditions and time-scales than those implied by the usual decoherence point of view. We illustrate the effect numerically in several model systems and prove that the effect is typical under the standard random-matrix conjecture for complex quantum systems.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures. Discussion has been clarified and additional numerical evidence for information theoretic equilibration is provided for a variant of the Heisenberg model as well as one and two-dimensional random local Hamiltonian

Factors Influencing Bike Share Among Underserved Populations: Evidence from Three US Cities

There is evidence that lower-income and people of color (POC) in the U.S. do not use bike share as much as higher-income and white people. Using data from residents living near stations in New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia, our analysis examines reasons for these disparities. While smaller shares of POC are members (vs higher-income white people), large shares of POC are interested in bike share. Among POC, having positive attitudes about bicycling and having family and friends that use bike share are strong predictors of interest in bike share. POC are also motivated to use bike share for recreational reasons. Receiving information from interactive sources may be effective at increasing bike share use and interest, though it is not clear whether these efforts have affected POC. Cost is a barrier for people who have tried bike share and are interested in using it in the future but are not members

TIPS: a system for automated image-based phenotyping of maize tassels

Abstract Background The maize male inflorescence (tassel) produces pollen necessary for reproduction and commercial grain production of maize. The size of the tassel has been linked to factors affecting grain yield, so understanding the genetic control of tassel architecture is an important goal. Tassels are fragile and deform easily after removal from the plant, necessitating rapid measurement of any shape characteristics that cannot be retained during storage. Some morphological characteristics of tassels such as curvature and compactness are difficult to quantify using traditional methods, but can be quantified by image-based phenotyping tools. These constraints necessitate the development of an efficient method for capturing natural-state tassel morphology and complementary automated analytical methods that can quickly and reproducibly quantify traits of interest such as height, spread, and branch number. Results This paper presents the Tassel Image-based Phenotyping System (TIPS), which provides a platform for imaging tassels in the field immediately following removal from the plant. TIPS consists of custom methods that can quantify morphological traits from profile images of freshly harvested tassels acquired with a standard digital camera in a field-deployable light shelter. Correlations between manually measured traits (tassel weight, tassel length, spike length, and branch number) and image-based measurements ranged from 0.66 to 0.89. Additional tassel characteristics quantified by image analysis included some that cannot be quantified manually, such as curvature, compactness, fractal dimension, skeleton length, and perimeter. TIPS was used to measure tassel phenotypes of 3530 individual tassels from 749 diverse inbred lines that represent the diversity of tassel morphology found in modern breeding and academic research programs. Repeatability ranged from 0.85 to 0.92 for manually measured phenotypes, from 0.77 to 0.83 for the same traits measured by image-based methods, and from 0.49 to 0.81 for traits that can only be measured by image analysis. Conclusions TIPS allows morphological features of maize tassels to be quantified automatically, with minimal disturbance, at a scale that supports population-level studies. TIPS is expected to accelerate the discovery of associations between genetic loci and tassel morphology characteristics, and can be applied to maize breeding programs to increase productivity with lower resource commitment

Blending block copolymer micelles in solution ; obstacles of blending

Amphiphilic block copolymers can assemble into a variety of structures on the nanoscale in selective solvent. The micelle blending protocol offers a simple unique route to reproducibly produce polymer nanostructures. Here we expand this blending protocol to a range of polymer micelle systems and self-assembly routes. We found by exploring a range of variables that the systems must be able to reach global equilibrium at some point for the blending protocol to be successful. Our results demonstrate the kinetics requirements, specifically core block glass transition temperature, Tg, and length of the block limiting the exchange rates, for the blending protocol which can then be applied to a wide range of polymer systems to access this simple protocol for polymer self-assembly

The influence of depth and velocity on age‐0 Scaphirhynchus sturgeon prey consumption: Implications for aquatic habitat restoration

After the pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) was listed as endangered in 1990, a variety of management actions focusing on early life history needs have been implemented to aid species recovery. Given the scarcity of age‐0 pallid sturgeon, managers and scientists have relied on sympatric congeners to evaluate the effectiveness of management actions in the short term; however, increased understanding of habitat requirements for age‐0 Scaphirhynchus sturgeon is still needed to appropriately focus management efforts. Recently, a lack of food‐producing and foraging habitats were proposed as potential limiting factors for pallid sturgeon, and the purpose of this study was to evaluate the current definition of these habitats at multiple spatial scales using data from age‐0 Scaphirhynchus sturgeon (shovelnose sturgeon [Scaphirhynchus platyrhynchus] or hybrid [shovelnose sturgeon x pallid sturgeon]). Results showed the water depths and velocities that currently define age‐0 pallid sturgeon foraging habitat had little effect on age‐0 Scaphirhynchus sturgeon prey consumption. Similar results occurred when evaluating the relationship between prey consumption and food‐producing habitat present 10, 20, and 30 days before capture. Assuming that individuals captured during this study were a valid surrogate, these results suggest that increasing foraging and food‐producing habitat as defined by the current depth and velocity criteria is unlikely to result in the desired benefits of increased growth and survival of age‐0 pallid sturgeon

Evaluation of movement behaviors to inform toxic baiting strategies for invasive wild pigs (\u3ci\u3eSus scrofa\u3c/i\u3e)

BACKGROUND: Invasive wild pigs damage agriculture, property, and natural ecosystems. To curtail damage, an effective and humane toxic bait containing microencapsulated sodium nitrite is under development. Strategies for delivering the toxic bait are needed to establish adequate spacing of bait sites, and for simultaneously accustoming wild pigs to the novel bait and wild pig-specific bait stations designed to exclude non-target species. RESULTS: We monitored movements of 32 Global Positioning System (GPS)-collared wild pigs relative to 41 bait sites containing placebo bait. Among the bait sites,we compared three experimental baiting strategies (and a control) to evaluate which strategy led to the most wild pigs accessing the placebo bait inside bait stations. We found that bait sites should be spaced 0.5–1 km apart to maximize opportunities for all wild pigs to find and utilize the bait sites. Baiting strategies that allowed ≥ 15 days for accustoming wild pigs to bait stations were most effective and resulted in nearly 90% of wild pigs accessing the placebo bait inside the bait stations. Bait stations excluded all non-target animals, except one instance with a raccoon (Procyon lotor). CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate the potential for toxic bait to be an effective tool for reducing populations of wild pigs with minimal risks to non-target species, if optimized delivery procedures are followed