The Role of Imported Cases and Favorable Meteorological Conditions in the Onset of Dengue Epidemics

Dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever is the world's most widely spread mosquito-borne arboviral disease and threatens more than two-thirds of the world's population. Cases are mainly distributed in tropical and subtropical areas in accordance with vector habitats for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. However, the role of imported cases and favorable meteorological conditions has not yet been quantitatively assessed. This study verified the correlation between the occurrence of indigenous dengue and imported cases in the context of weather variables (temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, etc.) for different time lags in southern Taiwan. Our findings imply that imported cases have a role in igniting indigenous outbreaks, in non-endemics areas, when favorable weather conditions are present. This relationship becomes insignificant in the late phase of local dengue epidemics. Therefore, early detection and case management of imported cases through timely surveillance and rapid laboratory-diagnosis may avert large scale epidemics of dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever. An early-warning surveillance system integrating meteorological data will be an invaluable tool for successful prevention and control of dengue, particularly in non-endemic countries

Comparison of Seven Commercial Antigen and Antibody Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assays for Detection of Acute Dengue Infection

Seven commercial assays were evaluated to determine their suitability for the diagnosis of acute dengue infection: (i) the Panbio dengue virus Pan-E NS1 early enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), second generation (Alere, Australia); (ii) the Panbio dengue virus IgM capture ELISA (Alere, Australia); (iii) the Panbio dengue virus IgG capture ELISA (Alere, Australia); (iv) the Standard Diagnostics dengue virus NS1 antigen ELISA (Standard Diagnostics, South Korea); (v) the Standard Diagnostics dengue virus IgM ELISA (Standard Diagnostics, South Korea); (vi) the Standard Diagnostics dengue virus IgG ELISA (Standard Diagnostics, South Korea); and (vii) the Platelia NS1 antigen ELISA (Bio-Rad, France). Samples from 239 Thai patients confirmed to be dengue virus positive and 98 Sri Lankan patients negative for dengue virus infection were tested. The sensitivities and specificities of the NS1 antigen ELISAs ranged from 45 to 57% and 93 to 100% and those of the IgM antibody ELISAs ranged from 85 to 89% and 88 to 100%, respectively. Combining the NS1 antigen and IgM antibody results from the Standard Diagnostics ELISAs gave the best compromise between sensitivity and specificity (87 and 96%, respectively), as well as providing the best sensitivity for patients presenting at different times after fever onset. The Panbio IgG capture ELISA correctly classified 67% of secondary dengue infection cases. This study provides strong evidence of the value of combining dengue virus antigen- and antibody-based test results in the ELISA format for the diagnosis of acute dengue infection

Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection of dengue virus

Infectious disease models play a key role in public health planning. These models rely on accurate estimates of key transmission parameters such as the force of infection (FoI), which is the per-capita risk of a susceptible person being infected. The FoI captures the fundamental dynamics of transmission and is crucial for gauging control efforts, such as identifying vaccination targets. Dengue virus (DENV) is a mosquito-borne, multiserotype pathogen that currently infects ∼390 million people a year. Existing estimates of the DENV FoI are inaccurate because they rely on the unrealistic assumption that risk is constant over time. Dengue models are thus unreliable for designing vaccine deployment strategies. Here, we present to our knowledge the first time-varying (daily), serotype-specific estimates of DENV FoIs using a spline-based fitting procedure designed to examine a 12-y, longitudinal DENV serological dataset from Iquitos, Peru (11,703 individuals, 38,416 samples, and 22,301 serotype-specific DENV infections from 1999 to 2010). The yearly DENV FoI varied markedly across time and serotypes (0–0.33), as did daily basic reproductive numbers (0.49–4.72). During specific time periods, the FoI fluctuations correlated across serotypes, indicating that different DENV serotypes shared common transmission drivers. The marked variation in transmission intensity that we detected indicates that intervention targets based on one-time estimates of the FoI could underestimate the level of effort needed to prevent disease. Our description of dengue virus transmission dynamics is unprecedented in detail, providing a basis for understanding the persistence of this rapidly emerging pathogen and improving disease prevention programs

Incidence and risk factors of probable dengue virus infection among Dutch travelers to Asia.

We studied the incidence of dengue virus (DEN) infections in a cohort of Dutch short-term travellers to endemic areas in Asia during 1991-92. Sera were collected before and after travel. All post-travel sera were tested for DEN immunoglobulin M (IgM) [IgM capture (MAC)-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)] and IgG (indirect ELISA). Probable DEN infection was defined as IgM seroconversion or a fourfold rise in IgG ratio in the absence of cross-reaction with antibody to Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV). Infections were considered clinically apparent in case of febrile illness (> 24 H) with headache, myalgia, arthralgia or rash. Probable DEN infection was found in 13 of 447 travellers (incidence rate 30/1000 person-months, 95% CI 17.4-51.6). One infection was considered secondary; no haemorrhagic fever occurred. The clinical-to-subclinical infection rate was 1:3.3. The risk of infectio