The effect of perceived streakiness on the shot-taking behaviour of basketball players.

We examine behavioural changes of basketball players arising from the hot-hand belief and use data of 1216 National Basketball Association games to measure the effect of cold and hot streaks on three proxies of shot difficulty. We find that the more consecutive shots players make (miss), the more difficult (easier) shots become along the three dimensions. Furthermore, most players' performance seems to improve during hot streaks because they attempt more difficult shots while no significant decrease in shooting accuracy takes place. This might explain why most previous studies could not find empirical evidence for the hot-hand belief in basketball when considering in-game field goal shooting

How should "hot" players in basketball be defended? The use of fast-and-frugal heuristics by basketball coaches and players in response to streakiness.

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Sports Sciences on 8 January 2015, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02640414.2014.999251 Previous research has shown that changes in shot difficulty may have rendered the hot-hand effect in basketball unobservable and are potentially a result of defensive adjustments. However, it has not been directly analysed whether strategic changes indeed take place in response to streakiness and whether they are effective with respect to winning games. The current work consists of an experimental study with 18 professional coaches and 20 players based on video sequences from National Basketball Association games, where the shown player displayed a streaky performance in half of the sequences. While coaches were asked to devise a defensive strategy after each viewed sequence, players had to assume the role of the shown player and decide whether to shoot or pass the ball. We find that coaches tended to increase the defensive pressure significantly more often on presumably hot players and thus make use of the hot-hand heuristic. Meanwhile, players chose to shoot more frequently in low-pressure and streaky situations but selected "pass" regardless of the previous performance when they faced increased defensive pressure. Assuming that a streaky player's performance is indeed elevated during hot phases, hot-hand behaviour can be considered adaptive in certain situations as it led hot players to pass instead of shoot

Determining ‘Age at Death’ for Forensic Purposes using Human Bone by a Laboratory-based Analytical Method

Determination of age-at-death (AAD) is an important and frequent requirement in contemporary forensic science and in the reconstruction of past populations and societies from their remains. Its estimation is relatively straightforward and accurate (±3 years) for immature skeletons by using morphological features and reference tables within the context of forensic anthropology. However, after skeletal maturity (>35 yrs) estimates become inaccurate, particularly in the legal context. In line with the general migration of all the forensic sciences from reliance upon empirical criteria to those which are more evidence-based, AAD determination should rely more-and-more upon more quantitative methods. We explore here whether well-known changes in the biomechanical properties of bone and the properties of bone matrix, which have been seen to change with age even after skeletal maturity in a traceable manner, can be used to provide a reliable estimate of AAD. This method charts a combination of physical characteristics some of which are measured at a macroscopic level (wet & dry apparent density, porosity, organic/mineral/water fractions, collagen thermal degradation properties, ash content) and others at the microscopic level (Ca/P ratios, osteonal and matrix microhardness, image analysis of sections). This method produced successful age estimates on a cohort of 12 donors of age 53–85 yr (7 male, 5 female), where the age of the individual could be approximated within less than ±1 yr. This represents a vastly improved level of accuracy than currently extant age estimation techniques. It also presents: (1) a greater level of reliability and objectivity as the results are not dependent on the experience and expertise of the observer, as is so often the case in forensic skeletal age estimation methods; (2) it is purely laboratory-based analytical technique which can be carried out by someone with technical skills and not the specialised forensic anthropology experience; (3) it can be applied worldwide following stringent laboratory protocols. As such, this technique contributes significantly to improving age estimation and therefore identification methods for forensic and other purposes

A survey of assistive technologies and applications for blind users on mobile platforms: a review and foundation for research

This paper summarizes recent developments in audio and tactile feedback based assistive technologies targeting the blind community. Current technology allows applications to be efficiently distributed and run on mobile and handheld devices, even in cases where computational requirements are significant. As a result, electronic travel aids, navigational assistance modules, text-to-speech applications, as well as virtual audio displays which combine audio with haptic channels are becoming integrated into standard mobile devices. This trend, combined with the appearance of increasingly user- friendly interfaces and modes of interaction has opened a variety of new perspectives for the rehabilitation and training of users with visual impairments. The goal of this paper is to provide an overview of these developments based on recent advances in basic research and application development. Using this overview as a foundation, an agenda is outlined for future research in mobile interaction design with respect to users with special needs, as well as ultimately in relation to sensor-bridging applications in genera

Serum estradiol/progesterone ratio on day of embryo transfer may predict reproductive outcome following controlled ovarian hyperstimulation and in vitro fertilization

BACKGROUND: To determine whether estradiol-to-progesterone (E(2)/P) ratios at the time of embryo transfer (ET) have an effect on implantation and pregnancy in IVF cycles. METHODS: 239 women consecutively treated by IVF or ICSI were retrospectively analyzed and early luteal serum E(2 )and P were measured on the day of ET. Transfer occurred after a variable in vitro culture period ranging from 4–7 days after ovulation induction (OI). Following ET, serum E(2)/P ratios were calculated for clinical pregnancies, preclinical abortions and non-coneption cycles. RESULTS: Receiver-operator curve analysis demonstrated that the E(2)/P ratio could differentiate between clinical pregnancies and non-pregnant cycles (area under the curve on OI +4 days = 0.70; 95% CI = 0.60–0.80; p = 0.003, on OI +5 days = 0.76; 95% CI = 0.64–0.88; p = 0.001, OI +7 days = 0.85; 95% CI = 0.75–0.96; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: These retrospective data may hold prognostic value regarding endometrial receptivity as reflected by E(2)/P measurements and may help improve IVF treatment outcome. Further prospective studies should be undertaken to confirm these obersveration

The host metabolite D-serine contributes to bacterial niche specificity through gene selection

Escherichia coli comprise a diverse array of both commensals and niche-specific pathotypes. The ability to cause disease results from both carriage of specific virulence factors and regulatory control of these via environmental stimuli. Moreover, host metabolites further refine the response of bacteria to their environment and can dramatically affect the outcome of the host–pathogen interaction. Here, we demonstrate that the host metabolite, D-serine, selectively affects gene expression in E. coli O157:H7. Transcriptomic profiling showed exposure to D-serine results in activation of the SOS response and suppresses expression of the Type 3 Secretion System (T3SS) used to attach to host cells. We also show that concurrent carriage of both the D-serine tolerance locus (dsdCXA) and the locus of enterocyte effacement pathogenicity island encoding a T3SS is extremely rare, a genotype that we attribute to an ‘evolutionary incompatibility’ between the two loci. This study demonstrates the importance of co-operation between both core and pathogenic genetic elements in defining niche specificity

Do migrant remittances promote human capital formation? Evidence from 89 developing countries

The few published empirical studies on the effect of migrant remittances on educational attainments are roughly based on cross-sectional microdata from household surveys. This paper applies the generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator on aggregate level data from 1970 to 2010 in five-year intervals to examine the impact of migrant remittances on human capital formation in 89 developing countries. The estimation results show that, on average, an increase in migrant remittance inflows by 1% is associated with a 2% rise in years of schooling at both the secondary and tertiary levels. This suggests that migrant remittances have the potential to relax liquidity constraints and generate spillover effects that facilitate more schooling opportunities in remittance-receiving countries

Varespladib and cardiovascular events in patients with an acute coronary syndrome: the VISTA-16 randomized clinical trial

IMPORTANCE: Secretory phospholipase A2(sPLA2) generates bioactive phospholipid products implicated in atherosclerosis. The sPLA2inhibitor varespladib has favorable effects on lipid and inflammatory markers; however, its effect on cardiovascular outcomes is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effects of sPLA2inhibition with varespladib on cardiovascular outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A double-blind, randomized, multicenter trial at 362 academic and community hospitals in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, India, and North America of 5145 patients randomized within 96 hours of presentation of an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) to either varespladib (n = 2572) or placebo (n = 2573) with enrollment between June 1, 2010, and March 7, 2012 (study termination on March 9, 2012). INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomized to receive varespladib (500 mg) or placebo daily for 16 weeks, in addition to atorvastatin and other established therapies. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary efficacy measurewas a composite of cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), nonfatal stroke, or unstable angina with evidence of ischemia requiring hospitalization at 16 weeks. Six-month survival status was also evaluated. RESULTS: At a prespecified interim analysis, including 212 primary end point events, the independent data and safety monitoring board recommended termination of the trial for futility and possible harm. The primary end point occurred in 136 patients (6.1%) treated with varespladib compared with 109 patients (5.1%) treated with placebo (hazard ratio [HR], 1.25; 95%CI, 0.97-1.61; log-rank P = .08). Varespladib was associated with a greater risk of MI (78 [3.4%] vs 47 [2.2%]; HR, 1.66; 95%CI, 1.16-2.39; log-rank P = .005). The composite secondary end point of cardiovascular mortality, MI, and stroke was observed in 107 patients (4.6%) in the varespladib group and 79 patients (3.8%) in the placebo group (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.02-1.82; P = .04). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In patients with recent ACS, varespladib did not reduce the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events and significantly increased the risk of MI. The sPLA2inhibition with varespladib may be harmful and is not a useful strategy to reduce adverse cardiovascular outcomes after ACS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01130246. Copyright 2014 American Medical Association. All rights reserved