Climatic control on the variability of flood distribution

International audienceThe variability of the second order moments of flood peaks with respect to geomorphoclimatic basin characteristics was investigated. In particular, the behaviour of the coefficient of variation (Cv) of the series of annual maximum floods was analysed with respect to its dependence on physically consistent quantities. The results achieved were in fairly good agreement with real world observed characteristics and interesting insights on the relationship between Cv and basin size were found. It appears that Cv is controlled mainly by the climate and by some water loss features. Many observations reported in the literature show a decrease of Cv with basin area A, usually ascribed to the limited spatial extent of extreme events, which leads to a decrease with area of the Cv of areal rainfall intensity. An increase of Cv with the area is also sometimes observed for small basins. Such different behaviours were accounted for by the concurrent effect on two parameters that affect the Cv (A) relationship, representative of the way rainfall losses and effective rainfall intensity scale with the basin area.</p

An approach to propagate streamflow statistics along the river network

Streamflow at ungauged sites is often predicted by means of regional statistical procedures. The standard regional approaches do not preserve the information related to the hierarchy among gauged stations deriving from their location along the river network. However, this information is important when estimating runoff at a site located immediately upstream or downstream of a gauging station. We propose here a novel approach, referred to as the Along-Stream Estimation (ASE) method, to improve runoff estimation at ungauged sites. The ASE approach starts from the regional estimate at an ungauged (target) site, and corrects it based on regional and sample estimates of the same variable at a donor site, where sample data are available. A criterion to define the domain of application around each donor site of the ASE approach is proposed, and the uncertainty inherent in the estimates obtained is evaluated. This allows one to compare the variance of the along-stream estimates to that of other models that eventually become available for application (e.g. regional models), and thus to choose the most accurate method (or to combine different estimates). The ASE model was applied in the northwest of Italy in connection with an existing regional model for flood frequency analysis. The analysed variables are the first L-moments of the annual discharge maxima. The application demonstrates that the ASE approach can be used effectively to improve the regional estimates for the L-moment of order one (the index flood), particularly when the area ratio of a pair of donor-target basins is less than or equal to ten. However, in this case study, the method does not provide significant improvements to the estimation of higher-order L-moment

How should eosinophilic cystitis be treated in patients with chronic granulomatous disease?

Chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) is a primary immunodeficiency resulting from the absence or malfunction of oxidative mechanism in phagocytic cells. The disease is due to a mutation in one of four genes that encode subunits of the nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADPH) oxidase complex. Affected patients experience severe infections and granuloma formation due to exuberant inflammatory responses. Some evidence suggests that eosinophilic cystitis (EC) is included in the spectrum of inflammatory manifestations. EC is an inflammatory disease, rare in childhood, which may require different, nonstandardized therapeutic approaches, ranging from antihistamines to cyclosporine

Targeted JAM-C deletion in germ cells by Spo11-controlled Cre recombinase

Meiosis is a crucial process for the production of functional gametes. However, the biological significance of many genes expressed during the meiotic phase remains poorly understood, mainly because of the lethal phenotypes of the knockout mice. Functional analysis of such genes using the conditional knockout approach is hindered by the lack of suitable Cre transgenic lines. We describe here the generation of transgenic mice expressing Cre recombinase under the control of the meiotic Spo11 gene. Using LacZ-R26(loxP) and EYFP-R26(loxP) reporter mice, we show the specific expression and activity of Cre during meiosis in males and females. Spo11(Cre) mice were then crossed with floxed Nbs1 and JAM-C mice to produce conditional knockouts. A strong reduction of Nbs1 and JAM-C protein levels was found in the testis. Although Nbs1-deleted mice developed minor gonadal abnormalities, JAM-C-knockout mice showed a spermiogenetic arrest, as previously described for the null mice. These results provide strong evidence that Spo11(Cre) transgenic mice represent a powerful tool for deleting genes of interest specifically in meiotic and/or in postmeiotic germ cells

Studies on Calf Diarrhoea in Mozambique: Prevalence of Bacterial Pathogens

The prevalence of diarrhoea in calves was investigated in 8 dairy farms in Mozambique at 4 occasions during 2 consecutive years. A total of 1241 calves up to 6 months of age were reared in the farms, and 63 (5%) of them had signs of diarrhoea. Two farms had an overall higher prevalence (13% and 21%) of diarrhoea. Faecal samples were collected from all diarrhoeal calves (n = 63) and from 330 healthy calves and analysed for Salmonella species, Campylobacter jejuni and enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC). Salmonella spp. was isolated in only 2% of all calves. Campylobacter was isolated in 11% of all calves, irrespective of health condition, and was more frequent (25%) in one of the 2 diarrhoeal farms (p = 0.001). 80% of the isolates were identified as C. jejuni. No ETEC strains were detected among the 55 tested strains from diarrhoeal calves, but 22/55 (40%) strains from diarrhoeal calves and 14/88 (16%) strains from healthy calves carried the K99 adhesin (p = 0.001). 6,757 E. coli isolates were typed with a biochemical fingerprinting method (the PhenePlate™) giving the same E. coli diversity in healthy and diarrhoeal calves. Thus it was concluded: i) the overall prevalence of diarrhoea was low, but 2 farms had a higher prevalence that could be due to an outbreak situation, ii) Salmonella did not seem to be associated with diarrhoea, iii) Campylobacter jejuni was common at one of the 2 diarrhoeal farms and iv) ETEC strains were not found, but K99 antigen was more prevalent in E. coli strains from diarrhoeal calves than from healthy, as well as more prevalent in one diarrhoeal farm

Connecting European snow cover variability with large scale atmospheric patterns

Abstract. Winter snowfall and its temporal variability are important factors in the development of water management strategies for snow-dominated regions. For example, mountain regions of Europe rely on snow for recreation, and on snowmelt for water supply and hydropower. It is still unclear whether in these regions the snow regime is undergoing any major significant change. Moreover, snow interannual variability depends on different climatic variables, such as precipitation and temperature, and their interplay with atmospheric and pressure conditions. This paper uses the EASE Grid weekly snow cover and Ice Extent database from the National Snow and Ice Data Center to assess the possible existence of trends in snow cover across Europe. This database provides a representation of snow cover fields in Europe for the period 1972–2006 and is used here to construct snow cover indices, both in time and space. These indices allow us to investigate the historical spatial and temporal variability of European snow cover fields, and to relate them to the modes of climate variability that are known to affect the European climate. We find that both the spatial and temporal variability of snow cover are strongly related to the Arctic Oscillation during wintertime. In the other seasons, weaker correlation appears between snow cover and the other patterns of climate variability, such as the East Atlantic, the East Atlantic West Russia, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Polar Pattern and the Scandinavian Pattern

Effects of disregarding seasonality on the distribution of hydrological extremes

Abstract. This paper deals with the seasonality of hydroclimatic extremes and with the problem of accounting for their non-homogeneous character in determining the design value. To this aim we devise a simple stochastic experiment in which extremes are produced by a non-homogeneous extreme value generation process. The design values are estimated in closed analytical form both in a peak over threshold framework and by using the standard annual maxima approach. In this completely controlled world of generated hydrological extremes, a statistical measure of the error associated to the adoption of a homogeneous model is introduced. The sensitivity of this measure, named return period ratio, to the typology and strength of seasonality is investigated. We find that neglecting seasonality induces a downward bias in design value estimators. The magnitude of the bias may be large when the peak over threshold approach is adopted, while the return period distortion is limited when the annual maxima are considered. An application to rainfall data from a 30 000 km2 region located in North-Western Italy is presented to better clarify the effects of disregarding seasonality in a real case

Exploiting the information content of hydrological "outliers" for goodness-of-fit testing.

Abstract. Validation of probabilistic models based on goodness-of-fit tests is an essential step for the frequency analysis of extreme events. The outcome of standard testing techniques, however, is mainly determined by the behavior of the hypothetical model, FX(x), in the central part of the distribution, while the behavior in the tails of the distribution, which is indeed very relevant in hydrological applications, is relatively unimportant for the results of the tests. The maximum-value test, originally proposed as a technique for outlier detection, is a suitable, but seldom applied, technique that addresses this problem. The test is specifically targeted to verify if the maximum (or minimum) values in the sample are consistent with the hypothesis that the distribution FX(x) is the real parent distribution. The application of this test is hindered by the fact that the critical values for the test should be numerically obtained when the parameters of FX(x) are estimated on the same sample used for verification, which is the standard situation in hydrological applications. We propose here a simple, analytically explicit, technique to suitably account for this effect, based on the application of censored L-moments estimators of the parameters. We demonstrate, with an application that uses artificially generated samples, the superiority of this modified maximum-value test with respect to the standard version of the test. We also show that the test has comparable or larger power with respect to other goodness-of-fit tests (e.g., chi-squared test, Anderson-Darling test, Fung and Paul test), in particular when dealing with small samples (sample size lower than 20–25) and when the parent distribution is similar to the distribution being tested

Virtuous and Vicious Virtual Water Trade with Application to Italy

The current trade of agricultural goods, with connections involving all continents, entails for global exchanges of ‘‘virtual’’ water, i.e. water used in the production process of alimentary products, but not contained within. Each trade link translates into a corresponding virtual water trade, allowing quantification of import and export fluxes of virtual water. The assessment of the virtual water import for a given nation, compared to the national consumption, could give an approximate idea of the country’s reliance on external resources from the food and the water resources point of view. A descriptive approach to the understanding of a nation’s degree of dependency from overseas food and water resources is first proposed, and indices of water trade virtuosity, as opposed to inefficiency, are devised. Such indices are based on the concepts of self-sufficiency and relative export, computed systematically on all products from the FAOSTAT database, taking Italy as the first case study. Analysis of time series of the self-sufficiency and relative export can demonstrate effects of market tendencies and influence water-related policies at the international level. The goal of this approach is highlighting incongruent terms in the virtual water balances by the viewpoint of single products. Specific products, which are here referred to as ‘‘swap products’’, are in fact identified as those that lead to inefficiencies in the virtual water balance due to their contemporaneously high import and export. The inefficiencies due to the exchanges of the same products between two nations are calculated in terms of virtual water volumes. Furthermore, the cases of swap products are investigated by computing two further indexes denoting the ratio of virtual water exchanged in the swap and the ratio of the economic values of the swapped products. The analysis of these figures can help examine the reasons behind the swap phenomenon in trade

Time-Dependent Z-R Relationships for Estimating Rainfall Fields from Radar Measurements

Abstract. The operational use of weather radars has become a widespread and useful tool for estimating rainfall fields. The radar-gauge adjustment is a commonly adopted technique which allows one to reduce bias and dispersion between radar rainfall estimates and the corresponding ground measurements provided by rain gauges. This paper investigates a new methodology for estimating radar-based rainfall fields by recalibrating at each time step the reflectivity-rainfall rate (Z-R) relationship on the basis of ground measurements provided by a rain gauge network. The power-law equation for converting reflectivity measurements into rainfall rates is readjusted at each time step, by calibrating its parameters using hourly Z-R pairs collected in the proximity of the considered time step. Calibration windows with duration between 1 and 24 h are used for estimating the parameters of the Z-R relationship. A case study pertaining to 19 rainfall events occurred in the north-western Italy is considered, in an area located within 25 km from the radar site, with available measurements of rainfall rate at the ground and radar reflectivity aloft. Results obtained with the proposed method are compared to those of three other literature methods. Applications are described for a posteriori evaluation of rainfall fields and for real-time estimation. Results suggest that the use of a calibration window of 2–5 h yields the best performances, with improvements that reach the 28% of the standard error obtained by using the most accurate fixed (climatological) Z-R relationship