Affordability targets: Implications for Housing Supply

This report presents the results of an econometric modelling project, concerned with regional housing affordability, conducted for the ODPM between November 2004 and April 2005. The key outputs of the project are not just this report, but the model itself, the details of which are set out in the accompanying Technical Appendix, available via the ODPM website: www.odpm.gov.uk/housing. The team for the project was large, including fifteen individuals from nine organisations. The project was directed from the University of Reading. In addition to the team, the work was improved by help from an advisory group and a user group, consisting of members drawn from both central government and from the wider academic and policy communities

Parameter Estimation and Quantitative Parametric Linkage Analysis with GENEHUNTER-QMOD

Objective: We present a parametric method for linkage analysis of quantitative phenotypes. The method provides a test for linkage as well as an estimate of different phenotype parameters. We have implemented our new method in the program GENEHUNTER-QMOD and evaluated its properties by performing simulations. Methods: The phenotype is modeled as a normally distributed variable, with a separate distribution for each genotype. Parameter estimates are obtained by maximizing the LOD score over the normal distribution parameters with a gradient-based optimization called PGRAD method. Results: The PGRAD method has lower power to detect linkage than the variance components analysis (VCA) in case of a normal distribution and small pedigrees. However, it outperforms the VCA and Haseman-Elston regression for extended pedigrees, nonrandomly ascertained data and non-normally distributed phenotypes. Here, the higher power even goes along with conservativeness, while the VCA has an inflated type I error. Parameter estimation tends to underestimate residual variances but performs better for expectation values of the phenotype distributions. Conclusion: With GENEHUNTER-QMOD, a powerful new tool is provided to explicitly model quantitative phenotypes in the context of linkage analysis. It is freely available at http://www.helmholtz-muenchen.de/genepi/downloads. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

Psychiatric genome-wide association study analyses implicate neuronal, immune and histone pathways

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of psychiatric disorders have identified multiple genetic associations with such disorders, but better methods are needed to derive the underlying biological mechanisms that these signals indicate. We sought to identify biological pathways in GWAS data from over 60,000 participants from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. We developed an analysis framework to rank pathways that requires only summary statistics. We combined this score across disorders to find common pathways across three adult psychiatric disorders: schizophrenia, major depression and bipolar disorder. Histone methylation processes showed the strongest association, and we also found statistically significant evidence for associations with multiple immune and neuronal signaling pathways and with the postsynaptic density. Our study indicates that risk variants for psychiatric disorders aggregate in particular biological pathways and that these pathways are frequently shared between disorders. Our results confirm known mechanisms and suggest several novel insights into the etiology of psychiatric disorders

Reduced Cancer Incidence in Huntington's Disease: Analysis in the Registry Study

BACKGROUND: People with Huntington\u27s disease (HD) have been observed to have lower rates of cancers. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between age of onset of HD, CAG repeat length, and cancer diagnosis. METHODS: Data were obtained from the European Huntington\u27s disease network REGISTRY study for 6540 subjects. Population cancer incidence was ascertained from the GLOBOCAN database to obtain standardised incidence ratios of cancers in the REGISTRY subjects. RESULTS: 173/6528 HD REGISTRY subjects had had a cancer diagnosis. The age-standardised incidence rate of all cancers in the REGISTRY HD population was 0.26 (CI 0.22-0.30). Individual cancers showed a lower age-standardised incidence rate compared with the control population with prostate and colorectal cancers showing the lowest rates. There was no effect of CAG length on the likelihood of cancer, but a cancer diagnosis within the last year was associated with a greatly increased rate of HD onset (Hazard Ratio 18.94, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Cancer is less common than expected in the HD population, confirming previous reports. However, this does not appear to be related to CAG length in HTT. A recent diagnosis of cancer increases the risk of HD onset at any age, likely due to increased investigation following a cancer diagnosis

A computational analysis of abnormal belief-updating processes and their association with psychotic experiences and childhood trauma in a UK birth cohort

BACKGROUND: Psychotic experiences emerge from abnormalities in perception and belief formation, and occur more commonly in those experiencing childhood trauma. Yet, which precise aspects of belief formation are atypical in psychosis is not well understood. We used a computational modelling approach to characterise belief-updating in young adults in the general population, examine their relationship with psychotic outcomes and trauma, and the extent to which they mediate the trauma-psychosis relationship. METHODS: We used data from 3,360 individuals from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children birth cohort who completed assessments for psychotic outcomes, depression, anxiety, and two belief-updating tasks at age 24, and had data available on traumatic events assessed from birth to late adolescence. Unadjusted and adjusted regression and counterfactual mediation methods were used for the analyses. RESULTS: Basic behavioural measures of belief-updating ('draws to decision' and 'disconfirmatory updating') were not associated with psychotic experiences. However, computational modelling revealed an association between increased decision noise with both psychotic experiences and trauma exposure, although <3% of the trauma-psychotic experience association was mediated by decision noise. Belief-updating measures were also associated with intelligence and socio-demographic characteristics, confounding most of the associations with psychotic experiences. There was little evidence that belief-updating parameters were differentially associated with delusions compared to hallucinations, or that they were differentially associated with psychotic outcomes compared to depression or anxiety. CONCLUSIONS: These findings challenge the hypothesis that atypical belief-updating mechanisms (as indexed by the computational models and behavioural measures we employed) underlie the development of psychotic phenomena

High loading of polygenic risk for ADHD in children with comorbid aggression

Objective: Although attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is highly heritable, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have not yet identified any common genetic variants that contribute to risk. There is evidence that aggression or conduct disorder in children with ADHD indexes higher genetic loading and clinical severity. The authors examine whether common genetic variants considered en masse as polygenic scores for ADHD are especially enriched in children with comorbid conduct disorder. Method: Polygenic scores derived from an ADHD GWAS meta-analysis were calculated in an independent ADHD sample (452 case subjects, 5,081 comparison subjects). Multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to compare polygenic scores in the ADHD and comparison groups and test for higher scores in ADHD case subjects with comorbid conduct disorder relative to comparison subjects and relative to those without comorbid conduct disorder. Association with symptom scores was tested using linear regression. Results: Polygenic risk for ADD, derived from the meta-analysis, was higher in the independent ADHD group than in the comparison group. Polygenic score was significantly higher in ADHD case subjects with conduct disorder relative to ADHD case subjects without conduct disorder. ADHD polygenic score showed significant association with comorbid conduct disorder symptoms. This relationship was explained by,the aggression items. Conclusions: Common genetic variation is relevant to ADHD, especially in individuals with comorbid aggression. The findings suggest that the previously published ADHD GWAS meta-analysis contains weak but true associations with common variants, support for which falls below genome-wide significance levels. The findings also highlight the fact that aggression in ADHD indexes genetic as well as clinical severity

Association Between Schizophrenia-Related Polygenic Liability and the Occurrence and Level of Mood-Incongruent Psychotic Symptoms in Bipolar Disorder

Importance Bipolar disorder (BD) overlaps schizophrenia in its clinical presentation and genetic liability. Alternative approaches to patient stratification beyond current diagnostic categories are needed to understand the underlying disease processes/mechanisms. Objectives To investigate the relationship between common-variant liability for schizophrenia, indexed by polygenic risk scores (PRS) and psychotic presentations of BD, using clinical descriptions which consider both occurrence and level of mood-incongruent psychotic features. Design Case-control design: using multinomial logistic regression, to estimate differential associations of PRS across categories of cases and controls. Settings & Participants 4399 BD cases, 2966 (67%) female, mean age-at-interview 46 [sd 12] years, from the BD Research Network (BDRN) were included in the final analyses. For comparison genotypic data for 4976 schizophrenia cases and 9012 controls from the Type-1 diabetes genetics consortium and Generation Scotland were included. Exposure Standardised PRS, calculated using alleles with an association p-value threshold < 0.05 in the second Psychiatric Genomics Consortium genome-wide association study of schizophrenia, adjusted for the first 10 population principal components and genotyping-platform. Main outcome measure Multinomial logit models estimated PRS associations with BD stratified by (1) Research Diagnostic Criteria (RDC) BD subtypes (2) Lifetime occurrence of psychosis.(3) Lifetime mood-incongruent psychotic features and (4) ordinal logistic regression examined PRS associations across levels of mood-incongruence. Ratings were derived from the Schedule for Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry interview (SCAN) and the Bipolar Affective Disorder Dimension Scale (BADDS). Results Across clinical phenotypes, there was an exposure-response gradient with the strongest PRS association for schizophrenia (RR=1.94, (95% C.I. 1.86, 2.01)), then schizoaffective BD (RR=1.37, (95% C.I. 1.22, 1.54)), BD I (RR= 1.30, (95% C.I. 1.24, 1.36)) and BD II (RR=1.04, (95% C.I. 0.97, 1.11)). Within BD cases, there was an effect gradient, indexed by the nature of psychosis, with prominent mood-incongruent psychotic features having the strongest association (RR=1.46, (95% C.I. 1.36, 1.57)), followed by mood-congruent psychosis (RR= 1.24, (95% C.I. 1.17, 1.33)) and lastly, BD cases with no history of psychosis (RR=1.09, (95% C.I. 1.04, 1.15)). Conclusion We show for the first time a polygenic-risk gradient, across schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, indexed by the occurrence and level of mood-incongruent psychotic symptoms

A genetic association study of glutamine-encoding DNA sequence structures, somatic CAG expansion, and DNA repair gene variants, with Huntington disease clinical outcomes

BACKGROUND: Huntington disease (HD) is caused by an unstable CAG/CAA repeat expansion encoding a toxic polyglutamine tract. Here, we tested the hypotheses that HD outcomes are impacted by somatic expansion of, and polymorphisms within, the HTT CAG/CAA glutamine-encoding repeat, and DNA repair genes. METHODS: The sequence of the glutamine-encoding repeat and the proportion of somatic CAG expansions in blood DNA from participants inheriting 40 to 50 CAG repeats within the TRACK-HD and Enroll-HD cohorts were determined using high-throughput ultra-deep-sequencing. Candidate gene polymorphisms were genotyped using kompetitive allele-specific PCR (KASP). Genotypic associations were assessed using time-to-event and regression analyses. FINDINGS: Using data from 203 TRACK-HD and 531 Enroll-HD participants, we show that individuals with higher blood DNA somatic CAG repeat expansion scores have worse HD outcomes: a one-unit increase in somatic expansion score was associated with a Cox hazard ratio for motor onset of 3·05 (95% CI = 1·94 to 4·80, p = 1·3 × 10-6). We also show that individual-specific somatic expansion scores are associated with variants in FAN1 (pFDR = 4·8 × 10-6), MLH3 (pFDR = 8·0 × 10-4), MLH1 (pFDR = 0·004) and MSH3 (pFDR = 0·009). We also show that HD outcomes are best predicted by the number of pure CAGs rather than total encoded-glutamines. INTERPRETATION: These data establish pure CAG length, rather than encoded-glutamine, as the key inherited determinant of downstream pathophysiology. These findings have implications for HD diagnostics, and support somatic expansion as a mechanistic link for genetic modifiers of clinical outcomes, a driver of disease, and potential therapeutic target in HD and related repeat expansion disorders. FUNDING: CHDI Foundation

‘Stop-go’ policy and the restriction of post-war British house-building

From the mid-1950s to the early 1980s the Treasury and Bank of England successfully advocated a policy of restricting both private and public sector house-building, as a key but covert instrument of their wider ‘stop-go’ macroeconomic policy framework. While the intensity of restrictions varied over the economic cycle, private house-building was restricted (through limiting mortgage availability) for almost all this period. This was achieved by keeping building society interest rates low relative to other interest rates and thus starving the building society movement of mortgage funds. Mortgage restriction was never publicly discussed and sometimes operated alongside ambitious housing targets and well-publicised policy initiatives to boost housing demand. This paper outlines the evolution of house-building restriction, together with its impacts on the housing sector and the wider economy. We review the evolution of the policy framework and its consequences, compare the level and stability of British house-building during this period - historically and relative to other countries, and undertake time-series econometric analysis of its impacts on both house-building and house prices. Finally, implications for debates regarding stop-go policy, Britain’s housing problem, and the distributional consequences of government macroeconomic policy are discussed