Enduring Lagrangian coherence of a Loop Current ring assessed using independent observations

Ocean flows are routinely inferred from low-resolution satellite altimetry measurements of sea surface height assuming a geostrophic balance. Recent nonlinear dynamical systems techniques have revealed that surface currents derived from altimetry can support mesoscale eddies with material boundaries that do not filament for many months, thereby representing effective transport mechanisms. However, the long-range Lagrangian coherence assessed for mesoscale eddy boundaries detected from altimetry is constrained by the impossibility of current altimeters to resolve ageostrophic submesoscale motions. These may act to prevent Lagrangian coherence from manifesting in the rigorous form described by the nonlinear dynamical systems theories. Here we use a combination of satellite ocean color and surface drifter trajectory data, rarely available simultaneously over an extended period of time, to provide observational evidence for the enduring Lagrangian coherence of a Loop Current ring detected from altimetry. We also seek indications of this behavior in the flow produced by a data-assimilative system which demonstrated ability to reproduce observed relative dispersion statistics down into the marginally submesoscale range. However, the simulated flow, total surface and subsurface or subsampled emulating altimetry, is not found to support the long-lasting Lagrangian coherence that characterizes the observed ring. This highlights the importance of the Lagrangian metrics produced by the nonlinear dynamical systems tools employed here in assessing model performance.Comment: In press in nature.com/Scientific Report

Absolute Transports of Mass and Temperature for the North Atlantic Current– Subpolar Front System

The flow of subtropical waters carried into the northern North Atlantic Ocean by the North Atlantic Current– subpolar front system (NAC–SPF) is an important component of the meridional overturning circulation. These waters become colder and denser as they flow through the subpolar region, both by mixing with the colder subpolar waters and by atmospheric cooling. The relative roles of these two processes remain to be quantified, and the mechanisms driving lateral mixing need to be better understood. To address those questions, a new methodology is developed to estimate the mean absolute transports of mass and heat for the top 1000 dbar in the region of the NAC–SPF for the time period 1993–2000. The transports are obtained by combining historical hydrography with isopycnal RAFOS float data from the area. The mean absolute transport potential field shows an NAC–SPF “pipe,” defined by two bounding transport potential contours. This pipe transports 10.0 ± 3.5 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) (top 1000 dbar) from the subtropics into the eastern subpolar North Atlantic. In contrast to earlier studies, the northward-flowing NAC follows a distinct meandering path, with no evidence of permanent branches peeling off the current before reaching the “Northwest Corner.” As the current enters the Northwest Corner, it loses its tight structure and maybe splits into two or more branches, which together constitute the eastward flow along the SPF. The eastward flow between the Northwest Corner and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is not as tightly defined because of the meandering and/or eddy shedding of the branches constituing the SPF. As the flow approaches the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, it converges to cross above the Charlie–Gibbs and Faraday Fracture Zones. The mean absolute temperature transport (top 1000 dbar) by the 10-Sv pipe was estimated across 10 transects crossing the NAC–SPF. Because the mean mass flux is constant in the pipe, variations in the mean temperature transports result from lateral exchange and mixing across the pipe\u27s side walls and from air–sea fluxes across the surface of the pipe. The NAC–SPF current loses 0.18 ± 0.05 PW on its transit through the region, most of the loss occuring upstream of the Northwest Corner. The heat loss is 10 times the corresponding heat lost to the atmosphere. We conclude that cross-frontal exchange induced by the steep meanders of the northward-flowing NAC is the main mechanism by which heat is lost along the current in the region between the “Tail of the Grand Banks” and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

Connectivity of the Pulley Ridge with remote locations as inferred from satellite- tracked drifter trajectories

Using historical (1994-2017) satellite‐tracked surface drifter trajectory data, we conduct a probabilistic Lagrangian circulation study which sheds light on the connectivity of Pulley Ridge with other locations in the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent areas. The analysis reveals that Pulley Ridge is connected with the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and most of the Gulf of Mexico. Preferred connecting pathways are identified and arrival times to potential reef sites computed. The study demonstrates the importance of Pulley Ridge as a source for neighboring regions like the Dry Tortugasa, the Florida Keys, Campeche Bank, and the east Florida coast as well as a self‐recruitment area for species with short competence time. The study further suggests that the reefs in the Caribbean Sea, the Dry Tortugas, the western Florida Keys, and the West Florida Shelf can act as sources for Pulley Ridge, indicating the importance of Pulley Ridge as a central refugium for species in the Gulf of Mexico

The Loop Current: Observations of deep eddies and topographic waves.

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 49(6), (2019):1463-1483, doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-18-0213.1.A set of float trajectories, deployed at 1500- and 2500-m depths throughout the deep Gulf of Mexico from 2011 to 2015, are analyzed for mesoscale processes under the Loop Current (LC). In the eastern basin, December 2012–June 2014 had >40 floats per month, which was of sufficient density to allow capturing detailed flow patterns of deep eddies and topographic Rossby waves (TRWs), while two LC eddies formed and separated. A northward advance of the LC front compresses the lower water column and generates an anticyclone. For an extended LC, baroclinic instability eddies (of both signs) develop under the southward-propagating large-scale meanders of the upper-layer jet, resulting in a transfer of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) to the lower layer. The increase in lower-layer EKE occurs only over a few months during meander activity and LC eddy detachment events, a relatively short interval compared with the LC intrusion cycle. Deep EKE of these eddies is dispersed to the west and northwest through radiating TRWs, of which examples were found to the west of the LC. Because of this radiation of EKE, the lower layer of the eastern basin becomes relatively quiescent, particularly in the northeastern basin, when the LC is retracted and a LC eddy has departed. A mean west-to-east, anticyclone–cyclone dipole flow under a mean LC was directly comparable to similar results from a previous moored LC array and also showed connections to an anticlockwise boundary current in the southeastern basin.The authors were supported by the Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), Contract M08PC20043 to Leidos, Inc., Raleigh, NC. The authors also wish to acknowledge the enthusiastic support of Dr. Alexis Lugo-Fernández, the BOEM Contracting Officer’s Technical Representative, during the study into the Deep Circulation of the Gulf of Mexico, using Lagrangian Methods. Thanks go to the captains and crews of the R/V Pelican and B/O Justo Sierra, J. Malbrough (LUMCON), J. Singer (Leidos), J. Valdes (WHOI), B. Guest (WHOI), and the CANEK group (CICESE).2020-05-2

Connectivity of coastal and neritic fish larvae to the deep waters

Four ichthyoplankton cruises and backward tracking experiments were conducted to study the connectivity of coastal and neritic fish larvae over the continental slope and to the oceanic deep-water region of the western Gulf of Mexico. Distribution patterns of larval abundance at oceanic stations showed higher abundance and the presence of larvae at oceanic stations during two cruises. Larval transport was simulated using outputs of a data assimilation model that represented the flow conditions during each cruise. Higher abundances of larvae of coastal and neritic species at oceanic stations agreed with offshore transport inferred from numerical experiments seeding particles over different spatial scales (stations vs. transects). Satellite images of surface chlorophyll were consistent with the circulation patterns indicated by the model, indicating filaments of shelf waters were transported toward the transects with higher larval abundances. Particle tracking experiments indicated that the northwestern shelf provinces of Perdido, Tamaulipas, and Texas were the main source of propagules to the oceanic region, while shelf provinces of northern Veracruz, Campeche, Yucatan, Louisiana, and Mississippi-Alabama contributed much less. The length and intensity of the shelf front limited ichthyoplankton cross-shelf exchange during some cruises, and mesoscale anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies advected larvae to the deep-water region during others. The agreement between the spatial distribution of fish larvae and the simulated larval transport confirm that circulation models are a valuable tool for examining potential dispersal pathways of neritic species, as long as similar spatial and temporal scales as the ones used in this study are considered.Fil: Cano Compaire, Jesus. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología de México. Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada Baja California; MéxicoFil: Pérez Brunius, Paula. Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología de México. Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada Baja California; MéxicoFil: Jiménez Rosenberg, Sylvia Patricia Adelheid. Instituto Politécnico Nacional. Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Marinas; MéxicoFil: Rodríguez Outerelo, Javier. Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología de México. Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada Baja California; MéxicoFil: Echeverri García, Laura del Pilar. Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología de México. Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada Baja California; MéxicoFil: Herzka, Sharon Z.. Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología de México. Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada Baja California; Méxic

The Deep Water Dispersion Experiment: RAFOS float data report June 2016 - January 2019

This is the final data report for all acoustically-tracked subsurface RAFOS floats deployed for the “Deep Water Dispersion Experiment: RAFOS Float Study in Support of Analysis of Possible Consequences of Large Scale Oil-Spills under Various Scenarios” (DWDE). This study is part of the larger program “Deep and Shallow Particle Dispersion and Biological Connectivity over the Continental Slope in the Western Gulf of Mexico”, of the Gulf of Mexico Research Consortium (CIGoM). The objective of the DWDE project was to measure and evaluate the ocean circulation at various depths in order to estimate the rates and pathways by which a passive tracer (e.g. pollutant, nutrients, etc.) would spread. The experiment consisted of the deployment 93 RAFOS floats and five sound source moorings (needed for tracking the floats underwater) over the course of five cruises, between June 2016 and January 2019, in the Perdido region of the Gulf of Mexico. The floats were deployed nearly simultaneously at stacked depths of 300 and 1500 dbar, in sets of 2-4 instruments per station, for calculating dispersion statistics. Mission lengths for the floats were set to ~12 to 18 months. Included in this report are cruise summaries, statistics and notes on sound source and float performance, sound source drift calculations, description of the RAFOS float data processing steps, and figures.Funding was provided by the Mexican National Council for Science and Technology - Mexican Ministry of Energy - Hydrocarbon Fund, project 201441. This work was completed through a contract by the Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education at Ensenada (CICESE) under Grant No. 188355 to the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Hydrographic conditions near the coast of northwestern Baja California : 1997–2004

Author Posting. © The Authors, 2006. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Continental Shelf Research 26 (2006): 885-901, doi:10.1016/j.csr.2006.01.017.The effects of the 1997-98 and 2002-04 El Ni˜no on the upper waters in the con- tinental shelf and slope regions off northwestern Baja California are explored with data from eight cruises taken in late spring from 1998 to 2004 and the summers of 1997 and 1998. Geostrophic velocities were calculated referenced to a specific vol- ume anomaly surface separating the southward flowing California Current waters from the waters advected to the north by the California Undercurrent. The result- ing fields show equatorward flow near the surface except in the summer of 1997, when a poleward jet was found in the upper 40 dbars. This shallow jet advected anomalously warm and salty waters characteristic of the 1997-98 El Ni˜no, with its core found within 20-30 kms from the coast. By spring of 1998, the waters brought into the region by the jet had mixed across the pycnoline with the salty California Undercurrent waters below, resulting in high salinity levels on the density surfaces corresponding to the otherwise fresh California Current waters (25-26¾t). By con- trast, the 2002-04 El Ni˜no stands out for the very fresh and cold waters found on the same density surfaces in late spring of 2003 and 2004, marking a pronounced presence of subarctic waters. The fresh conditions found on the latter years repre- sent a nearshore expresion of the anomalous intrusion of subarctic waters observed 50-150 km from the coast of Southern California and Punta Eugenia, reported from July 2002 until April 2003. Our results suggest that the presence of this intrusion has continued to influence the region at least until May 2004.This work was supported by the US NSF (OCE-9986627 and OCE-0083976)

Assessment of numerical simulations of deep circulation and variability in the Gulf of Mexico using recent observations

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(4), (2020): 1045-1064, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0137.1.Three simulations of the circulation in the Gulf of Mexico (the “Gulf”) using different numerical general circulation models are compared with results of recent large-scale observational campaigns conducted throughout the deep (>1500 m) Gulf. Analyses of these observations have provided new understanding of large-scale mean circulation features and variability throughout the deep Gulf. Important features include cyclonic flow along the continental slope, deep cyclonic circulation in the western Gulf, a counterrotating pair of cells under the Loop Current region, and a cyclonic cell to the south of this pair. These dominant circulation features are represented in each of the ocean model simulations, although with some obvious differences. A striking difference between all the models and the observations is that the simulated deep eddy kinetic energy under the Loop Current region is generally less than one-half of that computed from observations. A multidecadal integration of one of these numerical simulations is used to evaluate the uncertainty of estimates of velocity statistics in the deep Gulf computed from limited-length (4 years) observational or model records. This analysis shows that the main deep circulation features identified from the observational studies appear to be robust and are not substantially impacted by variability on time scales longer than the observational records. Differences in strengths and structures of the circulation features are identified, however, and quantified through standard error analysis of the statistical estimates using the model solutions.This work was supported by the Gulf Research Program of the National Academy of Sciences under Awards 2000006422 and 2000009966. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the Gulf Research Program or the National Academy of Sciences. The authors acknowledge the GLORYS project for providing the ocean reanalysis data used in the ROMS simulation. GLORYS is jointly conducted by MERCATOR OCEAN, CORIOLIS, and CNRS/INSU. Installation, recovery, data acquisition, and processing of the CANEK group current-meter moorings were possible because of CICESE-PetróleosMexicanos Grant PEP-CICESE 428229851 and the dedicated work of the crew of the B/O Justo Sierra and scientists of the CANEK group. The authors thank Dr. Aljaz Maslo, CICESE, for assistance with analysis of model data. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), U.S. Dept. of the Interior, provided funding for the Lagrangian Study of the Deep Circulation in the Gulf of Mexico and the Observations and Dynamics of the Loop Current study. HYCOM simulation data are available from the HYCOM data server (https://www.hycom.org/data/goml0pt04/expt-02pt2), MITgcm data are available from the ECCO data server (http://ecco.ucsd.edu/gom_results2.html), and the ROMS simulation data are available from GRIIDC (NA.x837.000:0001)

Semi-quantitative risk assessment of marine mammal oil exposure: A case study in the western Gulf of Mexico

Marine mammals are highly vulnerable to oil spills, although the effects at both individual and population levels are not fully understood. A first approximation to evaluate the possible consequences of oil spills on marine life is using ecological risk assessments, which are analytical tools used to assess the likelihood of adverse environmental effects due to exposure to stressors derived from human activities. We developed a semi-quantitative framework to evaluate the risk of oil spill exposure on marine mammals that combines the likelihood of exposure based on species-specific biological and ecological traits, and the feasibility of encounter, which considers not only the overlap between the distribution of the species and the total affected area by a spill but also considers the distribution of spilled oil within this area, thus reducing the uncertainty in the estimate. We applied our framework to assess the risk of exposure of eight cetaceans to scenarios of large heavy oil (API gravity<22) spills originating from three hypothetical deep-water wells in the western Gulf of Mexico. High habitat suitability areas obtained using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach were used as a proxy for the geographic regions where each species is likely to be distributed, and oil spill scenarios were generated using numerical models incorporating transport, dispersion, and oil degradation. The analysis allowed identifying those species for which there is a significant risk of exposure in each spill scenario. However, our results suggest that the risk does not appear to be high for any species under any scenario. The information generated by our risk assessment is key to developing management plans in those areas of the Gulf of Mexico where deep-water activities of the hydrocarbon industry are currently being developed or planned

Ocean monitoring, observation network and modelling of the Gulf of Mexico by CIGOM

The tragic accident of the Macondo platform operated by British Petroleum (BP) unleashed in 2010 one of the largest oil spills in history, lasting over three months, spilling nearly 500 million liters of oil in one of the most biodiverse ocean regions. This accident revealed the technological deficiencies for the control of a spill in deep waters of the hydrocarbon industry. Simultaneously it showed important gaps in knowledge to predict the propagation and fate of the large volumes of hydrocarbons at depth and on the surface ocean and, more importantly, on their impact on the great ecosystem of the Gulf of Mexico. The necessity to understand and predict the transport, fate and ecosystem-level impacts of large oil spills in the southern Gulf of Mexico, a key region for oil exploration and extraction, led policymakers, scientists, and industry representatives from PEMEX (the Mexican oil company) to jointly launch an ocean observation project (2015-22) aimed to provide a multi-layered environmental baseline, develop a modern monitoring and computational modeling capacity and promote scientific understanding of the marine environment throughout the Mexican Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The initiative, led by the Research Consortium for the Gulf of Mexico (CIGoM), brought together more than 300 multidisciplinary researchers from more than a two dozen institutions in Mexico and abroad, including the Centre for Scientific Research and Higher Education of Ensenada (CICESE) as the leading institution, the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), the Centre for Research and Advanced Studies of the National Polytechnic Institute (CINVESTAV) in Mérida, the Autonomous University of Baja California (UABC), and the Centre for Engineering and Industrial Development (CIDESI). Financial support was provided by the National Council for Science and Technology and the Ministry of Energy Hydrocarbon Fund