Ciclo y dinámica económica en Europa

RESUMEN El objeto de estudio de la tesis son los ciclos económicos, realizándose cuatro estudios empíricos utilizando técnicas de series temporales. La tesis consta de cuatro capítulos, a los que se añade un apartado final de conclusiones El objetivo del primer capítulo es determinar si el ciclo económico es un fenómeno con características similares en las principales economías de mercado, para ello se caracterizan las propiedades cíclicas de un grupo amplio de países (países del G-7 más España y Suiza). Adicionalmente, en este capítulo se analiza la robustez de las propiedades cíclicas al método de filtrado, así como la estabilidad temporal de éstas. Los resultados indican que el ciclo es un fenómeno con características comunes en las principales economías de mercado; también se puso de manifiesto que las propiedades cíclicas son cualitativamente similares para distintos métodos de filtrado. En cuanto a la estabilidad en el tiempo, se observó un alto grado de estabilidad temporal en la asociación cíclica de las distintas variables con el ciclo del PIB; mientras que, las volatilidades de las distintas variables evidenciaban mayores inestabilidades. Este resultado parece indicar que los mismos mecanismos económicos están presentes tanto en épocas de alta como de baja volatilidad. En el segundo capítulo se analiza la posible existencia de un ciclo económico común entre los países europeos. Los resultados indican la existencia de dos componentes cíclicos comunes a los principales países europeos, que afectan de forma asimétrica a USA, apoyando la existencia de un ciclo europeo relacionado con variables indicativas del grado de comercio comunitario y de variables que reflejan diferenciales de competitividad entre Alemania y USA. Asimismo, los datos evidencian la existencia de un componente cíclico mundial relacionado con el grado de actividad de la economía americana y el precio del petróleo. El capítulo tercero estudia la importancia relativa de las perturbaciones de oferta y demanda en la variabilidad del producto real utilizando el mismo grupo de países analizados en el primer capítulo. La metodología utilizada son los modelos VAR estructurales, concretamente se estimó un modelo VAR con restricciones de cointegración, para cada uno de los países, para el producto real y la inflación. Los resultados indican que, en todos los países, una parte importante de la variabilidad del PIB (incluso en el corto plazo) es explicado por perturbaciones de oferta. Por último, el cuarto capítulo se plantea si, a pesar de los resultados obtenidos en el capítulo anterior, las fluctuaciones observadas en la economía española se ajustan a la visión tradicional de las fluctuaciones económicas, representada por el paradigma keynesiano. Los resultados indican que a pesar de la mayor importancia cuantitativa de las perturbaciones de oferta, los mecanismos de transmisión resaltados por los modelos keynesianos siguen siendo válidos. Los resultados de los distintos capítulos apuntan la existencia de una gran similitud en las propiedades cíclicas de las economías analizadas; así como la posible existencia de un componente cíclico específicamente europeo. Los resultados de los capítulos tercero y cuarto indican que si bien las perturbaciones de oferta explican la mayor parte de la variabilidad en el producto real, también se evidenció la relevancia empírica de ciertos mecanismos de transmisión propugnados por el paradigma keynesiano. De los resultados obtenidos en la tesis se derivan implicaciones tanto para la modelización como para la política económica. En cuanto a la modelización económica los resultados indican que esta justificado tratar de buscar una explicación unificada al fenómeno de los ciclos económicos, que dados los resultados, debe contener elementos clásicos y keynesianos. Por otra parte los resultados sugieren que la capacidad de las políticas de demanda para gestionar el ciclo está restringida al muy corto plazo. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________The thesis is composed of four chapters and a final section that summarised the principal conclusions. The first chapter analyses the cyclical properties in the main western economies. The results show a great similarity in the cyclical behaviour of the variables, showing common business cycle phenomena among the analysed countries. The highest differences were found in the behaviour of the monetary variables and in the real wage, what seems to indicate a different role of the monetary policy and differences in the national labour markets. Additionally, we use three alternative filter methods, and in contrast to the work of Canova (1998), the results do not change, at least qualitatively, with the filter method. Moreover, we study the temporal stability of the cyclical facts. This analysis shows that in general the relationship of the different variables with the GDP cycle is fundamentally stable over time, while volatilities are not so stable, indicating that the same economic mechanisms are present in periods of high and low volatility. The second chapter analyses the possible existence of European common cycle, the results show the existence of two cyclical components common to the main European countries that affect in an asymmetric way to the US. The third chapter analyses the relative importance of supply and demand shocks in Spain, Switzerland and the G-7 economies using a VAR model for output and inflation. A negative long run relationship was found in all countries, then we estimate a VAR model with cointegration restrictions (VECM). The results indicate that supply shocks are an important source of output variability, even in the short run. When a monetary variable is added to the model the results remains basically the same. The fourth chapter analyses if, in spite of the results obtained in the previous chapter, the fluctuations observed in the Spanish GDP could be explained by the traditional vision of the economic fluctuations, represented by the Keynesian paradigm. The results indicate that in spite of the bigger quantitative importance of the supply shocks, the transmission mechanisms suggested by the Keynesian paradigm continue being valid

Bird Behaviour during Prey-Predator Interaction in a Tropical Forest in México

Birds emit alarm calls, considered as honest signals, because they communicate the presence of a predator or potential threat. We evaluated behavioural events of birds responding to vocal and visual stimuli of a nocturnal predator (black-and-white owl Ciccaba nigrolineata) and a diurnal predator (collared forest falcon Micrastur semitorquatus). We analysed variations in behavioural events seasonally (reproductive and nonbreeding) and by bird size, as well as their relationship with the vegetation structure and landscape. The study was performed during the breeding (March-May) and non-breeding seasons (February, June and July) of 2016 in Chiapas, Mexico. We used four transects with different vegetation types and land uses. The most frequent behavioural response by birds to the vocal stimuli of the black-and-white owl and the collared forest-falcons was vocal, during the breeding season, and small species responded the most to the stimuli (p = 0.008) and (p < 0.015), respectively. We identified two vegetation and two landscape variables associated in 36% of probability for the prey to respond to black-and-white owl vocal stimuli, three variables of vegetation and one of the landscape in 37% for the collared forest-falcon stimuli. Potential prey animals modify the behaviour, which allows them to detect, evade or confront a predator

Effects of practices and teaching methods on different measures of the educational output: the case of Spanish universities

This article analyses the relationships between the educational resources applied in higher education and two types of measures of educational output: average grade obtained by students and the contribution of studies to the development of diverse professional competencies. The relationships are modelled using multi-level production function equations, with the corresponding output measure as the dependent variable. The explanatory variables are the prevalence of various teaching/learning modes and a set of variables that control for the behaviour of students during their studies and for their personal attributes. Estimates, using data from European project Reflex, show significant relationships between the teaching and learning methods used and the alternative measures of educational output considered. The results show that attending lectures has the greatest impact on average grades; nonetheless, more proactive learning methods such as problem-based learning, internships and work provision, and practical knowledge are most influential for the development of professional competencies.Este artículo analiza las relaciones existentes entre los recursos educativos aplicados durante la educación superior y dos tipos de medidas de los resultados generados: la nota media de los estudiantes y la contribución de la carrera al desarrollo de diversas competencias profesionales. Las relaciones hipotetizadas se modelan por medio de funciones de producción multinivel donde las variables dependientes son los resultados educativos alcanzados. Las variables explicativas utilizadas aproximan la prevalencia de diversos métodos de enseñanza y controlan tanto el comportamiento de los estudiantes durante los estudios como sus características individuales. Las estimaciones, realizadas con datos provenientes del proyecto europeo Reflex, evidencian la existencia de relaciones significativas entre los métodos de enseñanza y aprendizaje utilizados y las diversas medidas del output educativo consideradas. Los resultados muestran cómo la asistencia a clase es la práctica docente con mayor influencia en la nota media de la carrera; sin embargo, métodos docentes más proactivos como el aprendizaje basado en problemas, las prácticas de empresa y los conocimientos prácticos son más influyentes en cuanto al desarrollo de las competencias profesionales analizadas

Copper(I)-Arene Complexes with a Sterically Hindered Tris(pyrazolyl)borate Ligand

A series of arene copper(I) complexes bearing the hydrotris(3-mesitylpyrazolyl)borate ligand (Tp(Ms)) of general formula Tp(Ms)Cu(arene) (arene = toluene, 1; nitrobenzene, 2; chlorobenzene, 3; and iodobenzene, 4) has been structurally characterized. Complexes 1-3 show a (2)-arene coordination mode to the copper center, whereas the iodobenzene ligand in 4 is coordinated to Cu by the iodine atom. In the absence of excess arene, these compounds undergo arene loss and formation of the dinuclear complex [Tp(Ms)Cu](2) (5), which has also been structurally characterized. Given the number of catalytic systems described in which the Tp(x)Cu core plays the main role, the observation of these adducts assesses their presence in those catalytic systems, a feature not described to date.Support for this work was provided by MINECO (CTQ2014-52769-C3-1-R

Copper-Induced Ammonia N-H Functionalization

The activation of ammonia has been achieved with the aid of the TpMsCu core (TpMs = hydrotris(3-mesityl-pyrazolyl)borate). Complexes of the general composition TpMsCu(amine) (1–4) including the ammonia adduct TpMsCu(NH3) (1) have been synthesized and fully spectroscopical- and structurally characterized. Coordinated ammonia in 1 has been reacted with Ph3CPF6 yielding TpMsCu(NH2CPh3) (5) as a result of N–H cleavage and N–C bond formation. In a parallel manner the catalytic functionalization of ammonia with ethyl diazoacetate leading to glycinate derivatives has been developed with TpMsCu(THF) as the catalyst, in the first example of this transformation with ammonia and a copper-based system.We thank Prof. Kurt Mereiter for helpful discussions. Support for this work was provided by the MINECO (CTQ2014-52769-C3-1-R), and the Junta de Andalucia (P10-FQM-06292). MA thanks MINECO for a FPI fellowship

The Elusive Palladium-Diazo Adduct Captured: Synthesis, Isolation and Structural Characterization of [(ArNHC-PPh2)Pd(eta(2)-N2C(Ph)CO2Et)]

The first example of a diazo palladium adduct is reported. The complexes [(ArNHC-PPh2) M(eta(N2C)-N-2(Ph) CO2Et)] (M = Ni, 3; M = Pd, 4; ArNHC-PPh2 = 3-(2,6-diisopropylphenyl)- 1-[(diphenylphosphino)ethyl] imidazol-2-ylidene) were prepared by ligand exchange with styrene-coordinated precursors [(ArNHC @ PPh2) M(styrene)] (M = Ni, 1; M = Pd, 2). Complex 4 was fully characterized, including X-ray analyses; this constitutes the first example of a diazo adduct compound with palladium, thereby closing the gap between Groups 8 and 10 regarding this type of compounds

Selective Functionalization of Arene C(sp2 )−H Bonds by Gold Catalysis: The Role of Carbene Substituents

The complete regioselective incorporation of carbene units to nonactivated arene rings has been achieved employing gold(I) catalysts bearing alkoxydiaminophosphine ligands, with readily available, nonelaborated ethyl 2-phenyl-diazoacetate as the carbene source. These results are in contrast with the scarce precedents which required highly elaborated diazo substrates. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations have revealed the important role of the R group in the C(R)CO 2Et fragment, which dramatically affects the energy profile of this transformation.We thank the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación for Grant PID2020-113797RB-C21, also financed by FEDER “Una manera de hacer Europa”. We also thank Junta de Andalucía (P18-RT-1536) and Universidad de Huelva (P.O. Feder UHU-1260216). I.S. and A.N. acknowledge the support from the Research Council of Norway through its FRINATEK (No. 314321), Centre of Excellence schemes (No. 262695), and the Norwegian Metacenter for Computational Science (NOTUR) for computational resources (project number nn4654k). Funding for open access charge: Universidad de Huelva / CBU

Cartografía de usos del suelo por fotointerpretación mediante Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG): análisis comparativo de los sistemas ráster y vectorial

Los Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG), son un potente instrumento para la recogida, almacenamiento, gestión, análisis y representación de datos geográficos referidos a un territorio concreto. Gracias a esta capacidad son sistemas utilizados en la obtención de cartografía temática.Entre los dos tipos principales de SIG, vectorial y ráster, hay importantes diferencias que exigen la elección del sistema mejor adaptado al tipo de datos a analizar y representar en la cartografía temática.En este trabajo se realiza un estudio comparativo de los mapas de uso del suelo, obtenidos mediante un SIG vectorial (ArcViewTM) y el mapa de usos obtenido a través de un SIG ráster (IdrisiTM

Mechanistic Studies on Gold-Catalyzed Direct Arene C–H Bond Functionalization by Carbene Insertion: The Coinage-Metal Effect

The catalytic functionalization of the Csp 2-H bond of benzene by means of the insertion of the CHCO2Et group from ethyl diazoacetate (N2=CHCO2Et) has been studied with the series of coinage metal complexes IPrMCl (IPr = IPr = 1,3-bis(diisopropylphenyl)imidazol-2-ylidene) and NaBArF 4 (BArF 4 = tetrakis(3,5-bis(trifluoromethyl)phenyl)borate). For Cu and Ag, these examples constitute the first of such metals toward this transformation, that also provides ethyl cyclohepta-2,4,6-trienecarboxylate as by-product from the so-called Buchner reaction. In the case of methyl-substituted benzenes, the reaction exclusively proceeds onto the aromatic ring, the Csp 3-H bond remaining unreacted. A significant coinage metal effect has been observed, since the gold catalyst favors the formation of the insertion product into Csp 2-H bond whereas copper and silver preferentially induce the formation of the cycloheptatriene derivative. Experimental studies and theoretical calculations have explained the observed selectivity in terms of the formation of a common Wheland intermediate, resembling an electrophilic aromatic substitution, from which the reaction pathway evolves into two separate routes to each product.We thank the Spanish MINECO for CTQ2014-52769-C3-1-R, CTQ2014-57761-R, RED INTECAT CTQ2014-52974-REDC and Severo Ochoa Excellence Accreditation 2014-2018 SEV-2013-0319 and the ICIQ Foundation for financial support

Selective C-H Bond Functionalization of Unprotected Indoles by Donor-Acceptor Carbene Insertion

Copper catalysts containing alkoxydiaminophosphine (ADAP) ligand catalyze the selective C3- H functionalization of unprotected indoles upon carbene transfer from donor-acceptor diazo compounds, the N-H bond remaining unaltered during the transformation. Mechanistic studies, including DFT calculations, allows proposing the existence of two competitive pathways, none of them occurring through the formation of cyclopropane intermediates, at variance with previously reported systems.We thank to Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación for Grants PID2020-113797RB-C21, PID2020-112825RB-I00 and CEX2019-000925-S. We also thank Junta de Andalucía (P18-1536) and Universidad de Huelva (P. O.Feder UHU-202024). I.-G. F thanks the Investigo Program for a contract. L. M.-G. thanks Generalitat de Catalunya for an FI-Agaur predoctoral contract, 2022FI−B2000621