A Log-linear Homotopy Approach to Initialize the Parameterized Expectations Algorithm

In this paper I present a proposal to obtain appropriate initial conditions when solving general equilibrium rational expectations models with the Parameterized Expectations Algorithm. The proposal is based on a log-linear approximation to the model under study, so that it can be though of as a particular variant of the homotopy approach.The main advantages of the proposal are: i. it guarantees the ergodicity of the initial time series used as an input to the Parameterized Expectations algorithm; ii. it performs well as regards speed of convergence when compared to some homotopy alternatives; iii. it is easy to implement. The claimed advantages are successfully illustrated in the framework of the Cooley and Hansen (1989) model with indivisible labor and money demand motivated via a cash-in-advance constraint, as compared to a procedure based on the standard implementation of homotopy principles.Parameterized Expectations Algorithm, initial conditions, log-linear approximations,homotopy, rational expectations

Early-warning tools to forecast general government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal indicators

In this paper I evaluate the usefulness of a set of fiscal indicators as early-warning-signal tools for annual General Government Net Lending developments for some EMU countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, Finland) and an EMU aggregate. The indicators are mainly based on monthly and quarterly public accounts’ figures. I illustrate how the dynamics of the indicators show a remarkable performance when anticipating general government accounts’ movements, both in qualitative and in quantitative terms. JEL Classification: C53, E6, H6European Monetary Union, Fiscal forecasting and monitoring, General Government Deficit, leading indicators

Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillane in Europe?

We use a newly available dataset of euro area quarterly national accounts fiscal data and construct multi-variate, state-space mixed-frequencies models for the government deficit, revenue and expenditure in order to assess its information content and its potential use for fiscal forecasting and monitoring purposes. The models are estimated with annual and quarterly national accounts fiscal data, but also incorporate monthly information taken from the cash accounts of the governments. The results show the usefulness of our approach for real-time fiscal policy surveillance in Europe, given the current policy framework in which the relevant official figures are expressed in annual terms. JEL Classification: C53, E6, H6Fiscal policies, forecasting, Mixed frequency data, Unobserved Components

Robust Stylized Facts on Comovement for the Spanish Economy

In this article we further develop the suggestion of obtaining stylized facts on comovement on the basis of prewhitened time series proposed in André, Pérez and Martín (2002). Firstly, we show some examples on the robustness of the method. Secondly, we test the relevance of such a proposal by revisiting some of the existing stylized facts on comovement for the Spanish economy in Dolado, Sebastián and Vallés (1993).Stylized Facts, Comovement, Cross Correlation Function, HP-Filter, Prewhitening

Is it Worth Refining Linear Approximations to Non-Linear Rational Expectations Models?

We characterize the balanced growth path of the basic neoclassical growth economy using standard, almost linear numerical solution methods, as well as the parameterized expectations approach, which preserves the nonlinearity in the model. We also apply the same methods after adding indivisible labor to the basic model, and to a monetary version of that economy, subject to a cash-in-advance constraint. In a unified framework we tackle the question of how much of the nonlinear structure of the original problem is useful to maintain when using an “almost” linear method. We show that it is possible to find an almost linear method to solve these models as accurately as by parameterizing expectations. Our results show the importance of performing log-linear approximations, as well as the convenience of refining a linear solution method by mixing some structure of the original non-linear problem with structure of the approximated system.Linear-quadratic approximation, numerical accuracy, simulation,numerical methods.

Is there a signalling role for public wages? Evidence for the euro area based on macro data

Do public sector wages exert pressures on private sector wages, or has the private sector a leadership role in wage setting? This paper tries to isolate the pure signalling effect that one sector might exert on the other by controlling for other determinants of wages (prices, productivity, institutions) for the main euro area economies (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) and the periods 1980-2007 and 1991-2007. It exploits available quarterly information not yet used in the literature, and combines different data sources in the framework of mixed-frequencies time series models. The quarterly frequency of our data allows us to check the existence of purely intra-annual links between public and private sector wages (signalling effect). There is strong evidence of public wages’ leadership, either in conjunction with bi-directional links from the private sector (Germany and Spain) or pure public wage leadership (France in the sample 1991-2007, Italy for within-the-year linkages). JEL Classification: C32, C53, J30, J51, J52, E62, E63, H50, H6causal graph, causality, government wages, Mixed frequency data, private sector wages, signalling

Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models

In this paper, we present a model-based method for identifying fiscal closure rules in stochastic macroeconomic models. The methodology is based on the stability analysis of the model at hand, with an endogenous derivation of a reaction on the part of the fiscal authority to state variables in the model. The rule achieves the dual aim of imposing solvency on the fiscal sector and generating a state-contingent dynamic adjustment in a framework consistent with the properties of the model. Up to now, fiscal rules in leading large-scale macroeconomic forecasting models have been imposed exogenously, and in this sense are not necessarily compatible with the formulation of other sectors of these models. An example of the derivation procedure, including some illustrative results, is provided using a small calibrated macro model. JEL Classification: C5, E6, C62C62, Closure rules, E6, Fiscal Policy, JEL classification C5, macroeconomic models, Stability analysis

Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models

In this paper, we present a model-based method for identifying fiscal closure rules in stochastic macroeconomic models. The methodology is based on the stability analysis of the model at hand, with an endogenous derivation of a reaction on the part of the fiscal authority to state variables in the model. The rule achieves the dual aim of imposing solvency on the fiscal sector and generating a state-contingent dynamic adjustment in a framework consistent with the properties of the model. Up to now, fiscal rules in leading large-scale macroeconomic forecasting models have been imposed exogenously, and in this sense are not necessarily compatible with the formulation of other sectors of these models. An example of the derivation procedure, including some illustrative results, is provided using a small calibrated macro model.Macroeconomic models; Closure rules; Fiscal policy; Stability analysis

COMPUTING ROBUST STYLIZED FACTS ON COMOVEMENT

We propose an alternative method of obtaining stylized facts on comovement, based on the cross-correlation function of the prewhitened time series, which only depends on the purely stochastic components of the series and the cross efects between them. This approach has the property of being robust to the filtering procedure and hence to the cicle definition. The usual approach consists of obtaining the cross-correlation function of filtered variables, which reflect a mixture of both the existing cross-correlation between the variables and the autocorrelation structure of each of them. The autocorrelation structure, in turn, crucially depends on the filtering procedure. The relevance of such an approach is tested by revisiting some of the facts reported by Kydland and Prescott (1990).Prewhitening, Business Cycle, Stylized Facts, Comovement.

A quarterly fiscal database for the euro area based on intra-annual fiscal information

The analysis of the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policies in the euro area has been traditionally limited by the absence of quarterly fiscal data. To overcome this problem, we provide two new databases in this paper. Firstly, we construct a quarterly database of euro area fiscal variables for the period 1980-2008 for a quite disaggregated set of fiscal variables; secondly, we present a real-time fiscal database for a subset of fiscal variables, composed of biannual vintages of data for the euro area period (2000-2009). All models are multivariate, state space mixed- frequencies models estimated with available national accounts fiscal data (mostly annual) and, more importantly, monthly and quarterly information taken from the cash accounts of the governments. We provide not seasonally- and seasonally-adjusted data. Focusing solely on intra-annual fiscal information for interpolation purposes allows us to capture genuine intra-annual "fiscal" dynamics in the data. Thus, we provide fiscal data that avoid some problems likely to appear in studies using fiscal time series interpolated on the basis of general macroeconomic indicators, namely the well-known decoupling of tax collection from the evolution of standard macroeconomic tax bases (revenue windfalls/shortfalls). JEL Classification: C53, E6, H6.euro area, Fiscal policies, Interpolation, mixed frequencies, Unobserved Components models