Classification rates: non‐parametric verses parametric models using binary data

Estimations of the conditional mean and the marginal effects for particular small changes in the covariates have been of interest in financial, economics and even educational sectors. The standard approach has been to specify a parametric model such as probit or logit and then estimating the coefficients by maximum likelihood method. This is only applicable when the distribution form from which the data has been drawn is known. Non parametric methods have been proposed when the functional form assumptions cannot be ascertained. This research sought to establish if non parametric modeling achieves a higher correct classification ratio than a parametric model. The local likelihood technique was used to model fit the data sets. The same sets of data were modeled using parametric logit and the abilities of the two models to correctly predict the binary outcome compared. The results obtained showed that non‐parametric estimation gives a better prediction rate (classification ratio) for a binary data than parametric estimation. This was achieved both empirically and through simulation. For empirical results two different data sets were used. The first set consisted of loan applications of customers and the second set consisted of approved loans. In both data sets the classification ratio for non‐parametric method was found to be 1 while that for parametric was found to be 0.87 (only 87 out of the 100 observations were correctly classified) and 0.83 respectively. Simulation was done based on sample sizes of 25, 50, 75, 100,150,200,250,300 and 500. The simulated results further showed that the accuracy of both models decrease as sample size increases.Key words: Parametric, non‐parametric, local likelihood, logit, confusion matrix and classification rati

Parametric modeling of probability of bank loan default in Kenya

Commercial banks in Kenya are the key players not only in the financial market but also in spurring the economic growth that has been witnessed in the country in the recent past. Besides Safaricom and East Africa Breweries, the other top ten most profitable companies in Kenya are the Commercial banks. The biggest part of these huge profits emanates from the interests charged on loans they advance to their customers. If these loans non-perform, these blue chip companies will come tumbling down and the entire economy will be threatened. This makes the study on probability of a customer defaulting very useful while analyzing the credit risk policies. In this paper, we use a raw data set that contains demographic information about the borrowers. The data sets have been used to identify which risk factors associated with the borrowers contribute towards default. These risk factors are gender, age, marital status, occupation and term of loan. Results show that male customers have high odds (1.91) of defaulting compared to their female counter parts, single customers have a higher likelihood (odds of 1.48) of defaulting compared to their married customers, younger customers have high odds of defaulting unlike elderly customers, financial sector customers have equallikelihood of default as support staff customers and long term loans have less likelihood of defaulting compared to short term loans.Key words: The logistic model, the logit transformation, parameter estimatio

Rifampicin and clarithromycin (extended release) versus rifampicin and streptomycin for limited Buruli ulcer lesions: a randomised, open-label, non-inferiority phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Buruli ulcer is a neglected tropical disease caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans infection that damages the skin and subcutis. It is most prevalent in western and central Africa and Australia. Standard antimicrobial treatment with oral rifampicin 10 mg/kg plus intramuscular streptomycin 15 mg/kg once daily for 8 weeks (RS8) is highly effective, but streptomycin injections are painful and potentially harmful. We aimed to compare the efficacy and tolerability of fully oral rifampicin 10 mg/kg plus clarithromycin 15 mg/kg extended release once daily for 8 weeks (RC8) with that of RS8 for treatment of early Buruli ulcer lesions. METHODS: We did an open-label, non-inferiority, randomised (1:1 with blocks of six), multicentre, phase 3 clinical trial comparing fully oral RC8 with RS8 in patients with early, limited Buruli ulcer lesions. There were four trial sites in hospitals in Ghana (Agogo, Tepa, Nkawie, Dunkwa) and one in Benin (Pobè). Participants were included if they were aged 5 years or older and had typical Buruli ulcer with no more than one lesion (caterories I and II) no larger than 10 cm in diameter. The trial was open label, and neither the investigators who took measurements of the lesions nor the attending doctors were masked to treatment assignment. The primary clinical endpoint was lesion healing (ie, full epithelialisation or stable scar) without recurrence at 52 weeks after start of antimicrobial therapy. The primary endpoint and safety were assessed in the intention-to-treat population. A sample size of 332 participants was calculated to detect inferiority of RC8 by a margin of 12%. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01659437. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2013, and Dec 31, 2017, participants were recruited to the trial. We stopped recruitment after 310 participants. Median age of participants was 14 years (IQR 10-29) and 153 (52%) were female. 297 patients had PCR-confirmed Buruli ulcer; 151 (51%) were assigned to RS8 treatment, and 146 (49%) received oral RC8 treatment. In the RS8 group, lesions healed in 144 (95%, 95% CI 91 to 98) of 151 patients, whereas lesions healed in 140 (96%, 91 to 99) of 146 patients in the RC8 group. The difference in proportion, -0·5% (-5·2 to 4·2), was not significantly greater than zero (p=0·59), showing that RC8 treatment is non-inferior to RS8 treatment for lesion healing at 52 weeks. Treatment-related adverse events were recorded in 20 (13%) patients receiving RS8 and in nine (7%) patients receiving RC8. Most adverse events were grade 1-2, but one (1%) patient receiving RS8 developed serious ototoxicity and ended treatment after 6 weeks. No patients needed surgical resection. Four patients (two in each study group) had skin grafts. INTERPRETATION: Fully oral RC8 regimen was non-inferior to RS8 for treatment of early, limited Buruli ulcer and was associated with fewer adverse events. Therefore, we propose that fully oral RC8 should be the preferred therapy for early, limited lesions of Buruli ulcer. FUNDING: WHO with additional support from MAP International, American Leprosy Missions, Fondation Raoul Follereau France, Buruli ulcer Groningen Foundation, Sanofi-Pasteur, and BuruliVac

Outcome of HIV-exposed uninfected children undergoing surgery

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>HIV-exposed uninfected (HIVe) children are a rapidly growing population that may be at an increased risk of illness compared to HIV-unexposed children (HIVn). The aim of this study was to investigate the morbidity and mortality of HIVe compared to both HIVn and HIV-infected (HIVi) children after a general surgical procedure.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A prospective study of children less than 60 months of age undergoing general surgery at a paediatric referral hospital from July 2004 to July 2008 inclusive. Children underwent age-definitive HIV testing and were followed up post operatively for the development of complications, length of stay and mortality.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Three hundred and eighty children were enrolled; 4 died and 11 were lost to follow up prior to HIV testing, thus 365 children were included. Of these, 38(10.4%) were HIVe, 245(67.1%) were HIVn and 82(22.5%) were HIVi children.</p> <p>The overall mortality was low, with 2(5.2%) deaths in the HIVe group, 0 in the HIVn group and 6(7.3%) in the HIVi group (p = 0.0003). HIVe had a longer stay than HIVn children (3 (2-7) vs. 2 (1-4) days p = 0.02). There was no significant difference in length of stay between the HIVe and HIVi groups. HIVe children had a higher rate of complications compared to HIVn children, (9 (23.7%) vs. 14(5.7%) (RR 3.8(2.1-7) p < 0.0001) but a similar rate of complications compared to HIVi children 34 (41.5%) (RR = 0.6 (0.3-1.1) p = 0.06).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>HIVe children have a higher risk of developing complications and mortality after surgery compared to HIVn children. However, the risk of complications is lower than that of HIVi children.</p

The Frequency of Malaria Is Similar among Women Receiving either Lopinavir/Ritonavir or Nevirapine-based Antiretroviral Treatment

HIV protease inhibitors (PIs) show antimalarial activity in vitro and in animals. Whether this translates into a clinical benefit in HIV-infected patients residing in malaria-endemic regions is unknown. We studied the incidence of malaria, as defined by blood smear positivity or a positive Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 antigen test, among 444 HIV-infected women initiating antiretroviral treatment (ART) in the OCTANE trial (A5208; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00089505). Participants were randomized to treatment with PI-containing vs. PI-sparing ART, and were followed prospectively for ≥48 weeks; 73% also received cotrimoxazole prophylaxis. PI-containing treatment was not associated with protection against malaria in this study population

The impact of HIV-1 on the malaria parasite biomass in adults in sub-Saharan Africa contributes to the emergence of antimalarial drug resistance

Background. HIV-related immune-suppression increases the risk of malaria (infection, disease and treatment failure) and probably the circulating parasite biomass, favoring the emergence of drug resistance parasites. Methods. The additional malaria parasite biomass related to HIV-1 co-infection in sub-Saharan Africa was estimated by a mathematical model. Parasite biomass was computed as the incidence rate of clinical malaria episodes multiplied by the number of parasites circulating in the peripheral blood of patients at the time symptoms appear. A mathematical model estimated the influence of HIV-1 infection on parasite density in clinical malaria by country and by age group, malaria transmission intensity and urban/rural area. In a multivariate sensitivity analysis, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation. Results. The model shows that in 2005 HIV-1 increased the overall malaria parasite biomass by 18.0% (95%CI: 11.6-26.9). The largest relative increase (134.9-243.9%) was found in southern Africa where HIV-1 prevalence is the highest and malaria transmission unstable. The largest absolute increase was found in Zambia, Malawi, the Central African Republic and Mozambique, where both malaria and HIV are highly endemic. A univariate sensitivity analysis shows that estimates are sensitive to the magnitude of the impact of HIV-1 infection on the malaria incidence rates and associated parasite densities. Conclusion. The HIV-1 epidemic by increasing the malaria parasite biomass in sub-Saharan Africa may also increase the emergence of antimalarial drug resistance, potentially affecting the health of the whole population in countries endemic for both HIV-1 and malaria

Outlier Robustness of the Estimators of Variance of the Ratio Estimator

This paper investigates the sensitivities of the variance estimators for the ratio estimator. The model-based estimators VD and VL are found to be more sensitive to outliers than the rest of the estimators while the jack-knife variance estimator is the best on this criterion. Journal of Agriculture, Science and Technology Vol.4(1) 2002: 66-7