Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The nest-holding grass goby (Zosterisessor ophiocephalus) male adjusts the spawning activity in relation to parasitic nest intrusions.

This study examines the temporal pattern of spawning behavior by the territorial (i.e. nest-holding) grass goby male, Zosterisessor ophiocephalus, in response to sneak intrusions by the small parasitic male under controlled laboratory conditions. The spawning activity of the territorial male consists of a sequence of upside-down movements on the ceiling of the nest accompanied by undulations of the body and sperm release. Five pairs of one territorial male and one parasitic male, each kept inside a large tank provided with an artificial buried nest (always occupied by the territorial male) and one small tunnel-shaped shelter (always occupied by the small male), were observed during one-female spawning taking place in the innermost part of the nest (i.e. the nest chamber). During the spawning, the presence of the small male nearby the nest openings elicited aggressive behavior and increased nest patrolling by the territorial male. In one spawn the small male never attempted to enter the nest. In four spawns the small male entered one to three times the nest chamber (sneaks), staying there from 2 to 203 s until the large male chased him away. The temporal patterning of the spawning activity by the territorial male (bouts of upside-down, U-D), and its changes following a sneak by the small male, were investigated using bout analysis and correlative tests. Results showed the length of bouts U-D did not change significantly after a sneak intrusion. whereas gap length (i.e. the period between subsequent bouts U-D) decreased significantly after each sneak intrusion. The mean duty cycle of bouts U-D tended to be positively correlated to the number of sneaker intrusions of each replicate. Results are discussed in the light of current knowledge on sperm competition among externally fertilizing teleosts

Alien Invasive Slider Turtle in Unpredicted Habitat: A Matter of Niche Shift or of Predictors Studied?

BACKGROUND: Species Distribution Models (SDMs) aim on the characterization of a species' ecological niche and project it into geographic space. The result is a map of the species' potential distribution, which is, for instance, helpful to predict the capability of alien invasive species. With regard to alien invasive species, recently several authors observed a mismatch between potential distributions of native and invasive ranges derived from SDMs and, as an explanation, ecological niche shift during biological invasion has been suggested. We studied the physiologically well known Slider turtle from North America which today is widely distributed over the globe and address the issue of ecological niche shift versus choice of ecological predictors used for model building, i.e., by deriving SDMs using multiple sets of climatic predictor. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In one SDM, predictors were used aiming to mirror the physiological limits of the Slider turtle. It was compared to numerous other models based on various sets of ecological predictors or predictors aiming at comprehensiveness. The SDM focusing on the study species' physiological limits depicts the target species' worldwide potential distribution better than any of the other approaches. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that a natural history-driven understanding is crucial in developing statistical models of ecological niches (as SDMs) while "comprehensive" or "standard" sets of ecological predictors may be of limited use

Coverage of whole proteome by structural genomics observed through protein homology modeling database

We have been developing FAMSBASE, a protein homology-modeling database of whole ORFs predicted from genome sequences. The latest update of FAMSBASE (http://daisy.nagahama-i-bio.ac.jp/Famsbase/), which is based on the protein three-dimensional (3D) structures released by November 2003, contains modeled 3D structures for 368,724 open reading frames (ORFs) derived from genomes of 276 species, namely 17 archaebacterial, 130 eubacterial, 18 eukaryotic and 111 phage genomes. Those 276 genomes are predicted to have 734,193 ORFs in total and the current FAMSBASE contains protein 3D structure of approximately 50% of the ORF products. However, cases that a modeled 3D structure covers the whole part of an ORF product are rare. When portion of an ORF with 3D structure is compared in three kingdoms of life, in archaebacteria and eubacteria, approximately 60% of the ORFs have modeled 3D structures covering almost the entire amino acid sequences, however, the percentage falls to about 30% in eukaryotes. When annual differences in the number of ORFs with modeled 3D structure are calculated, the fraction of modeled 3D structures of soluble protein for archaebacteria is increased by 5%, and that for eubacteria by 7% in the last 3 years. Assuming that this rate would be maintained and that determination of 3D structures for predicted disordered regions is unattainable, whole soluble protein model structures of prokaryotes without the putative disordered regions will be in hand within 15 years. For eukaryotic proteins, they will be in hand within 25 years. The 3D structures we will have at those times are not the 3D structure of the entire proteins encoded in single ORFs, but the 3D structures of separate structural domains. Measuring or predicting spatial arrangements of structural domains in an ORF will then be a coming issue of structural genomics

Both Positive and Negative Selection Pressures Contribute to the Polymorphism Pattern of the Duplicated Human CYP21A2 Gene.

The human steroid 21-hydroxylase gene (CYP21A2) participates in cortisol and aldosterone biosynthesis, and resides together with its paralogous (duplicated) pseudogene in a multiallelic copy number variation (CNV), called RCCX CNV. Concerted evolution caused by non-allelic gene conversion has been described in great ape CYP21 genes, and the same conversion activity is responsible for a serious genetic disorder of CYP21A2, congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH). In the current study, 33 CYP21A2 haplotype variants encoding 6 protein variants were determined from a European population. CYP21A2 was shown to be one of the most diverse human genes (HHe=0.949), but the diversity of intron 2 was greater still. Contrary to previous findings, the evolution of intron 2 did not follow concerted evolution, although the remaining part of the gene did. Fixed sites (different fixed alleles of sites in human CYP21 paralogues) significantly accumulated in intron 2, indicating that the excess of fixed sites was connected to the lack of effective non-allelic conversion and concerted evolution. Furthermore, positive selection was presumably focused on intron 2, and possibly associated with the previous genetic features. However, the positive selection detected by several neutrality tests was discerned along the whole gene. In addition, the clear signature of negative selection was observed in the coding sequence. The maintenance of the CYP21 enzyme function is critical, and could lead to negative selection, whereas the presumed gene regulation altering steroid hormone levels via intron 2 might help fast adaptation, which broadly characterizes the genes of human CNVs responding to the environment