Redefining disease emergence to improve prioritization and macro-ecological analyses

AbstractMicrobial infections are as old as the hosts they sicken, but interest in the emergence of pathogens and the diseases they cause has been accelerating rapidly. The term ‘emerging infectious disease’ was coined in the mid-1900s to describe changes in disease dynamics in the modern era. Both the term and the phenomena it is meant to characterize have evolved and diversified over time, leading to inconsistencies and confusion. Here, we review the evolution of the term ‘emerging infectious disease’ (EID) in the literature as applied to human hosts. We examine the pathways (e.g., speciation or strain differentiation in the causative agent vs. rapid geographic expansion of an existing pathogen) by which diseases emerge. We propose a new framework for disease and pathogen emergence to improve prioritization. And we illustrate how the operational definition of an EID affects conclusions concerning the pathways by which diseases emerge and the ecological and socioeconomic drivers that elicit emergence. As EIDs appear to be increasing globally, and resources for science level off or decline, the research community is pushed to prioritize its focus on the most threatening diseases, riskiest potential pathogens, and the places they occur. The working definition of emerging infectious diseases and pathogens plays a crucial role in prioritization, but we argue that the current definitions may be impeding these efforts. We propose a new framework for classifying pathogens and diseases as “emerging” that distinguishes EIDs from emerging pathogens and novel potential pathogens. We suggest prioritization of: 1) EIDs for adaptation and mitigation, 2) emerging pathogens for preventive measures, and 3) novel potential pathogens for intensive surveillance

Testing epidemiological functional groups as predictors of avian haemosporidia patterns in southern Africa

Understanding the dynamics of multihost parasites and the roles of different host species in parasite epidemiology requires consideration of the whole animal community. Host communities may be composed of hundreds of interacting species, making it necessary to simplify the problem. One approach to summarizing the host community in a way that is relevant to the epidemiology of the parasite is to group host species into epidemiological functional groups (EpiFGs). We used EpiFGs to test our understanding of avian malaria (Plasmodium and Haemoproteus) dynamics in four communities of wetland-associated birds in southern Africa. Bird counts and captures were undertaken every 2–4 months over 2 yr and malaria was diagnosed by nested PCR. One hundred and seventy-six bird species were allocated to a set of EpiFGs according to their assumed roles in introducing and maintaining the parasite in the system. Roles were quantified as relative risks from avian foraging, roosting, and movement ecology and assumed interaction with vector species. We compared our estimated a priori risks to empirical data from 3414 captured birds from four sites and 3485 half-hour point counts. After accounting for relative avian abundance, our risk estimates significantly correlated with the observed prevalence of Haemoproteus but not Plasmodium. Although avian roosting height (for both malarial genera) and movement ecology (for Plasmodium) separately influenced prevalence, host behavior alone was not sufficient to predict Plasmodium patterns in our communities. Host taxonomy and relative abundance were also important for this parasite. Although using EpiFGs enabled us to predict the infection patterns of only one genus of heamosporidia, our approach holds promise for examining the influence of host community composition on the transmission of vector-borne parasites and identifying gaps in our understanding of host–parasite interactions. (Résumé d'auteur

Modelling Transmission of Vector-Borne Pathogens Shows Complex Dynamics When Vector Feeding Sites Are Limited

The relationship between species richness and the prevalence of vector-borne disease has been widely studied with a range of outcomes. Increasing the number of host species for a pathogen may decrease infection prevalence (dilution effect), increase it (amplification), or have no effect. We derive a general model, and a specific implementation, which show that when the number of vector feeding sites on each host is limiting, the effects on pathogen dynamics of host population size are more complex than previously thought. The model examines vector-borne disease in the presence of different host species that are either competent or incompetent (i.e. that cannot transmit the pathogen to vectors) as reservoirs for the pathogen. With a single host species present, the basic reproduction ratio R0 is a non-monotonic function of the population size of host individuals (H), i.e. a value exists that maximises R0. Surprisingly, if a reduction in host population size may actually increase R0. Extending this model to a two-host species system, incompetent individuals from the second host species can alter the value of which may reverse the effect on pathogen prevalence of host population reduction. We argue that when vector-feeding sites on hosts are limiting, the net effect of increasing host diversity might not be correctly predicted using simple frequency-dependent epidemiological models

Sacred Cows and Sympathetic Squirrels: The Importance of Biological Diversity to Human Health

Dobson and colleagues describe how some host species act to reduce the risk of transmission of virulent zoonotic pathogens to humans

Variable strength of forest stand attributes and weather conditions on the questing activity of Ixodes ricinus ticks over years in managed forests

Given the ever-increasing human impact through land use and climate change on the environment, we crucially need to achieve a better understanding of those factors that influence the questing activity of ixodid ticks, a major disease-transmitting vector in temperate forests. We investigated variation in the relative questing nymph densities of Ixodes ricinus in differently managed forest types for three years (2008–2010) in SW Germany by drag sampling. We used a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach to examine the relative effects of habitat and weather and to consider possible nested structures of habitat and climate forces. The questing activity of nymphs was considerably larger in young forest successional stages of thicket compared with pole wood and timber stages. Questing nymph density increased markedly with milder winter temperatures. Generally, the relative strength of the various environmental forces on questing nymph density differed across years. In particular, winter temperature had a negative effect on tick activity across sites in 2008 in contrast to the overall effect of temperature across years. Our results suggest that forest management practices have important impacts on questing nymph density. Variable weather conditions, however, might override the effects of forest management practices on the fluctuations and dynamics of tick populations and activity over years, in particular, the preceding winter temperatures. Therefore, robust predictions and the detection of possible interactions and nested structures of habitat and climate forces can only be quantified through the collection of long-term data. Such data are particularly important with regard to future scenarios of forest management and climate warming

Ecological correlates of risk and incidence of West Nile virus in the United States

West Nile virus, which was recently introduced to North America, is a mosquito-borne pathogen that infects a wide range of vertebrate hosts, including humans. Several species of birds appear to be the primary reservoir hosts, whereas other bird species, as well as other vertebrate species, can be infected but are less competent reservoirs. One hypothesis regarding the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus suggests that high bird diversity reduces West Nile virus transmission because mosquito blood-meals are distributed across a wide range of bird species, many of which have low reservoir competence. One mechanism by which this hypothesis can operate is that high-diversity bird communities might have lower community-competence, defined as the sum of the product of each species’ abundance and its reservoir competence index value. Additional hypotheses posit that West Nile virus transmission will be reduced when either: (1) abundance of mosquito vectors is low; or (2) human population density is low. We assessed these hypotheses at two spatial scales: a regional scale near Saint Louis, MO, and a national scale (continental USA). We found that prevalence of West Nile virus infection in mosquito vectors and in humans increased with decreasing bird diversity and with increasing reservoir competence of the bird community. Our results suggest that conservation of avian diversity might help ameliorate the current West Nile virus epidemic in the USA

Experimental Evidence for Reduced Rodent Diversity Causing Increased Hantavirus Prevalence

Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases have become a major global environmental problem with important public health, economic, and political consequences. The etiologic agents of most emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, and anthropogenic environmental changes that affect wildlife communities are increasingly implicated in disease emergence and spread. Although increased disease incidence has been correlated with biodiversity loss for several zoonoses, experimental tests in these systems are lacking. We manipulated small-mammal biodiversity by removing non-reservoir species in replicated field plots in Panama, where zoonotic hantaviruses are endemic. Both infection prevalence of hantaviruses in wild reservoir (rodent) populations and reservoir population density increased where small-mammal species diversity was reduced. Regardless of other variables that affect the prevalence of directly transmitted infections in natural communities, high biodiversity is important in reducing transmission of zoonotic pathogens among wildlife hosts. Our results have wide applications in both conservation biology and infectious disease management

Life History and Demographic Drivers of Reservoir Competence for Three Tick-Borne Zoonotic Pathogens

Animal and plant species differ dramatically in their quality as hosts for multi-host pathogens, but the causes of this variation are poorly understood. A group of small mammals, including small rodents and shrews, are among the most competent natural reservoirs for three tick-borne zoonotic pathogens, Borrelia burgdorferi, Babesia microti, and Anaplasma phagocytophilum, in eastern North America. For a group of nine commonly-infected mammals spanning >2 orders of magnitude in body mass, we asked whether life history features or surrogates for (unknown) encounter rates with ticks, predicted reservoir competence for each pathogen. Life history features associated with a fast pace of life generally were positively correlated with reservoir competence. However, a model comparison approach revealed that host population density, as a proxy for encounter rates between hosts and pathogens, generally received more support than did life history features. The specific life history features and the importance of host population density differed somewhat between the different pathogens. We interpret these results as supporting two alternative but non-exclusive hypotheses for why ecologically widespread, synanthropic species are often the most competent reservoirs for multi-host pathogens. First, multi-host pathogens might adapt to those hosts they are most likely to experience, which are likely to be the most abundant and/or frequently bitten by tick vectors. Second, species with fast life histories might allocate less to certain immune defenses, which could increase their reservoir competence. Results suggest that of the host species that might potentially be exposed, those with comparatively high population densities, small bodies, and fast pace of life will often be keystone reservoirs that should be targeted for surveillance or management

Persistence of Pathogens with Short Infectious Periods in Seasonal Tick Populations: The Relative Importance of Three Transmission Routes

BACKGROUND: The flaviviruses causing tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) persist at low but consistent levels in tick populations, despite short infectious periods in their mammalian hosts and transmission periods constrained by distinctly seasonal tick life cycles. In addition to systemic and vertical transmission, cofeeding transmission has been proposed as an important route for the persistence of TBE-causing viruses. Because cofeeding transmission requires ticks to feed simultaneously, the timing of tick activity may be critical to pathogen persistence. Existing models of tick-borne diseases do not incorporate all transmission routes and tick seasonality. Our aim is to evaluate the influence of seasonality on the relative importance of different transmission routes by using a comprehensive mathematical model. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a stage-structured population model that includes tick seasonality and evaluated the relative importance of the transmission routes for pathogens with short infectious periods, in particular Powassan virus (POWV) and the related "deer tick virus," emergent encephalitis-causing flaviviruses in North America. We used the next generation matrix method to calculate the basic reproductive ratio and performed elasticity analyses. We confirmed that cofeeding transmission is critically important for such pathogens to persist in seasonal tick populations over the reasonable range of parameter values. At higher but still plausible rates of vertical transmission, our model suggests that vertical transmission can strongly enhance pathogen prevalence when it operates in combination with cofeeding transmission. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results demonstrate that the consistent prevalence of POWV observed in tick populations could be maintained by a combination of low vertical, intermediate cofeeding and high systemic transmission rates. When vertical transmission is weak, nymphal ticks support integral parts of the transmission cycle that are critical for maintaining the pathogen. We also extended the model to pathogens that cause chronic infections in hosts and found that cofeeding transmission could contribute to elevating prevalence even in these systems. Therefore, the common assumption that cofeeding transmission is not relevant in models of chronic host infection, such as Lyme disease, could lead to underestimating pathogen prevalence

Can interventions that aim to decrease Lyme disease hazard at non-domestic sites be effective without negatively affecting ecosystem health? A systematic review protocol

Background Lyme disease (LD) is the most commonly reported, broadly distributed vector-borne disease of the northern temperate zone. It is transmitted by ticks and, if untreated, can cause skin, cardiac, nervous system and musculoskeletal disease. The distribution and incidence of LD is increasing across much of North America and Western Europe. Interventions to decrease exposure to LD hazard by encouraging behavioural change have low acceptance in high risk groups, and a safe, effective human LD vaccine is not presently available. As a result, habitat level interventions to decrease LD hazard itself (i.e. levels of infected ticks) have been proposed. However, some interventions may potentially negatively affect ecosystem health, and consequentially be neither desirable, nor politically feasible. This systematic review will catalogue interventions that aim to reduce LD hazard at non-domestic sites, and examine the evidence supporting those which are unlikely to negatively affect ecosystem health. Methods The review will be carried out in two steps. First, a screening and cataloguing stage will be conducted to identify and characterise interventions to decrease LD hazard at non-domestic sites. Secondly, the subset of interventions identified during cataloguing as unlikely to negatively affect ecosystem health will be investigated. In the screening and cataloguing step literature will be collected through database searching using pre-chosen search strings, hand-searching key journals and reviewing the websites of public health bodies. Further references will be identified by contacting stakeholders and researchers. Article screening and assessment of the likely effects of interventions on ecosystem health will be carried out independently by two reviewers. A third reviewer will be consulted if disagreements arise. The cataloguing step results will be presented in tables. Study quality will then be assessed independently by two reviewers, using adapted versions of established tools developed in healthcare research. These results will be presented in a narrative synthesis alongside tables. Though a full meta-analysis is not expected to be possible, if sub-groups of studies are sufficiently similar to compare, a partial meta-analysis will be carried out