Book review: Gorynia, M. (Ed.). (2019). Ewolucja nauk ekonomicznych: jedność a różnorodność, relacje do innych nauk, problemy klasyfikacyjne

Book review: Gorynia, M. (Ed.). (2019). Ewolucja nauk ekonomicznych: jedność a różnorodność, relacje do innych nauk, problemy klasyfikacyjne. Warszawa: Polska Akademia Nauk. ISBN 978-83-63305-66-6. pp. 253

On the Interpretation of Causality in Granger’s Sense

The concept of causality formulated in 1969 by C.W.J. Granger is mostly popular in the econometric literature. The central assumption of the concept is the fact that the cause precedes the effect and can help in forecasting the effect. Years of application of Granger causality idea have resulted in many misunderstandings related with the interpretation of the empirical findings. The paper focuses on systematization of the definitions based on Granger concept and their proper interpretation.Koncepcja przyczynowości sformułowana w 1969 roku przez C.W.J. Grangera jest najbardziej popularna w literaturze ekonometrycznej. Centralnym założeniem tej koncepcji jest fakt, że przyczyna poprzedza skutek i jest pomocna w prognozowaniu skutku w przyszłości. Lata stosowania koncepcji przyczynowości w sensie Grangera zaowocowały wieloma nieporozumieniami związanymi z interpretacją wyników empirycznych. Artykuł dotyczy systematyzacji definicji przyczynowości w sensie Grangera i ich właściwej interpretacji

Volatility Estimators in Econometric Analysis of Risk Transfer on Capital Markets

The purpose of the research is to compare the performance of different volatility measures while used in testing for causality in risk between several emerging and mature capital markets. The following volatility estimators are considered: Parkinson, Garman-Klass, Rogers-Satchell, Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang and Yang-Zhang and the AR-GARCH(1,1)-t model. Additionally, the extreme value theory is also applied. Several emerging capital markets are checked for being the source of the risk for both emerging and developed markets. The group of emerging markets includes the most intensively  growing economies in the world. The final results are such as the number of relationships between the markets is considerably lower when the methods taken from the extreme value theory are used

Analiza przyczynowości w długim i krótkim okresie w modelu popytu na pieniądz

The purpose of the article is to analyse the Granger causality problem in the long as well as short run. The straightforward relation of the mentioned concept with direct and indirect cause ideas has beaen emphasized. The testing procedure proposed in Dufour et al. (2003) was used to search for causality in the long and short run in the quarterly model of demand for money inPolandin 1997–2007. The model was constructed on the basis of cointegration concept. Causality analysis shows that the empirical model remains in agreement with economic theory.Celem prezentowanego artykułu jest zarysowanie problemu przyczynowości w długim i krótkim okresie, który pozostaje w ścisłym związku z pojęciem przyczyny bezpośredniej i pośredniej, a także zastosowanie procedury testowania przyczynowości zaproponowanej przez Dufour i in. (2003) do zmiennych występujących w kwartalnym modelu popytu na pieniądz dla Polski w latach 1997–2007. Przedstawiony model popytu na pieniądz został zbudowany przy założeniu kointegracji badanych zmiennych. Analiza zależności przyczynowych przeprowadzona na tle modelowanej zależności wskazuje na zgodność modelu empirycznego z teorią ekonomii

Institutions in the development of Sub-Saharan African countries in 2004–2019

Motivation: Institutions play a significant role in development processes, contributing to understanding the economic backwardness of Sub-Saharan Africa. There is no consensus in the literature on the specific set of institutions that significantly influence developmental processes. Furthermore, there is no convincing evidence that institutions create the proper environment for long-term growth or result from increased development due to advances in human capital and investments. Therefore, the article examines overcoming the developmental backwardness of those countries following sustainable development.Aim: The article aims to analyze whether institutions contribute to the development processes of Sub-Saharan African countries. The paper identifies the differences in channels of institutions’ impact on the two development measures, GDP per capita and the Human Development Index (HDI). Regarding the high diversity in the level of development of countries in the region and the differences in their institutional systems, thirty-two countries in Sub-Saharan Africa were grouped regarding HDI level.Results: The heterogeneous panel Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) models revealed that in the lower developed countries, financial aid in the form of grants or very low-interest loans from the World Bank and OECD is of particular importance. They show that increased use of CO2 is a proxy for driving forces of African economies (production, investments, etc.). Indicators referring to institutions’ measurement like government effectiveness, political stability, economic freedom, or the number of days for establishing a business play important roles in continuing development

Evidence for publicly reported quality indicators in residential long-term care: a systematic review

An increasing number of countries are using or planning to use quality indicators (QIs) in residential long-term care. Knowledge regarding the current state of evidence on usage and methodological soundness of publicly reported clinical indicators of quality in nursing homes is needed. The study aimed to answer the questions: 1) Which health-related QIs for residents in long-term care are currently publicly reported internationally? and 2) What is the methodological quality of these indicators?; A systematic search was conducted in the electronic databases PubMed, CINAHL and Embase in October 2019 and last updated on August 31st, 2022. Grey literature was also searched. We used the Appraisal of Indicators through Research and Evaluation (AIRE) instrument for the methodological quality assessment of the identified QIs.; Of 23'344 identified records, 22 articles and one report describing 21 studies met the inclusion criteria. Additionally, we found 17 websites publishing information on QIs. We identified eight countries publicly reporting a total of 99 health-related QIs covering 31 themes. Each country used between six and 31 QIs. The most frequently reported indicators were pressure ulcers, falls, physical restraints, and weight loss. For most QI sets, we found basic information regarding e.g., purpose, definition of the indicators, risk-adjustment, and stakeholders' involvement in QIs' selection. Little up to date information was found regarding validity, reliability and discriminative power of the QIs. Only the Australian indicator set reached high methodological quality, defined as scores of 50% or higher in all four AIRE instrument domains.; Little information is available to the public and researchers for the evaluation of a large number of publicly reported QIs in the residential long-term care sector. Better reporting is needed on the methodological quality of QIs in this setting, whether they are meant for internal quality improvement or provider comparison

Modeling mechanism of economic growth using threshold autoregression models

In recent economic literature it has been emphasized that across both advanced countries and emerging markets, high levels of debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio (90% and above) are associated with notably lower growth outcomes. On the other hand, much lower levels of external debt-to-GDP ratio (60% and below) are associated with adverse outcomes for emerging market growth. These findings have been broadly cited and used in practice. On the other hand, there is an opposite evidence, such that the initial level of debt-to-GDP ratio has no impact on economic growth rate. Taking both viewpoints into account, we propose to employ a time series-based nonlinear mechanism in the threshold autoregression form in order to examine the possible relationship between economic growth rate and its potential determinants included the mentioned debt-to GDP indicator. The originality of the study is that it employs threshold variables instead of exogenous variables and time-series data instead of panel data to reveal the economic instruments that have determined the business cycle in European countries for the last 2 decades -starting from 1995. The purpose of the study is to check the mechanism of growth (measured in terms of GDP growth rate and industrial production growth rate) depending on several important macroeconomic variables, such as public debt, rate of inflation, interest rate, and rate of unemployment with the level of growth itself serving as the threshold variable. We propose an efficient methodology for seeking the best specification of threshold autoregression model in terms of both goodness of fit and parsimony of parametrization. The data (quarterly and monthly) applied in the research cover the time period from the beginning of 1995 to the end of 2013. Such a long period is interesting because it allows investigation of the mechanism of growth under two different economic policy models. We identify that the exogenous monetary mechanism played an important role in diagnosing the phases of business cycle in most European economies which is in line with liberal economic policy dominating in the observed period. The initial level of debt-to-GDP ratio as its increase within the recession period was of no value for the economic growth pattern