Accuracy of Nelson and best guess formulae in estimation of weights in Nigerian children population

Background: An alternative method of estimating children’s weights, when direct weighing is impracticable is the use of age-based formulae but these formulae have not been validated in Nigeria. This study compares estimated weights from two commonly used formulae against actual weights of healthy children.Methods: Children aged 1 month to 11 years (n= 2754) were randomlyselected in Ibadan, Nigeria using a two-stage sampling procedure. Weight of each child, measured using a standard calibrated scale and determined using Nelson and Best Guess formulae, were compared. Demographic characteristics were also obtained. Mean percentage error (MPE) was calculated and stratified by gender and age. Bland-Altman graphs were used for visual assessment of the agreement between estimated and measured weights. Clinically acceptable MPE was defined as ±5%.  Descriptive statistics and paired t test were used to examine the data. Statistical level of significance was set at p = 0.05.Results: There were 1349 males and 1405 females. Nelson and Best Guess formulae overestimated weight by 10.11% (95% CI: -20.44, 40.65) in infants. For 1-5 years group, Nelson formula marginally underestimated weight by -0.59% (95% CI: -5.16, 3.96) while it overestimated weight by 9.87% (95% CI: 24.89, 44.63) in 6-11 years. Best Guess formulae consistently overestimated weight in all age groups with the MPE ranging from 10.11 to 30.67%.Conclusion: Nelson and Best Guess formulae are inaccurate for weight estimations in infants and children aged 6-11 years. Development of new formulae or modifications should be considered for use in the Nigerian children population.Keywords: Measured weight, Best Guess formula, Nelson formula, Mean percentage erro

Prevalence of dermatological lesions in hospitalized children at the University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria

Objective: Skin disorders constitute a significant proportion of consultations in children’s clinics; however, there is a paucity of data on the prevalence of dermatological lesions in hospitalized children in Nigeria. This study determines the prevalence of dermatological lesions in hospitalized children.Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 402 children aged three months to twelve years admitted in the Pediatric wards of the University College Hospital, Ibadan, were enrolled over a six-month period. Examination of the skin and its appendages was done for each patient. Data on the socioeconomic status, hygiene, and health-related factors were also obtained using a structured questionnaire.Results: Over 96% of the children had at least one identifiable skin lesion. The five leading skin lesions were postinflammatory hyperpigmentation (49.5%), BCG scar (28.4%), Mongolian spots (27.1%), junctional melanocytic nevi (20.1%), and café-au-lait macules (18.4%). The leading infectious skin disease was pyoderma (13.4%), followed by tinea capitis (6.7%). Scarification marks (P=0.001), tinea capitis (P=0.014), plantar fissuring (P=0.001), and impetigo (P=0.016) were associated with low socioeconomic classes, while the presence of BCG scar (50.0%) was associated with the high socioeconomic class.Conclusions: This study shows that dermatologic lesions are common in hospitalized children. Identifying them will provide an opportunity for pediatricians to educate parents on the various causes as well as prevention of lesions

Severe childhood malaria syndromes defined by plasma proteome profiles

BACKGROUND Cerebral malaria (CM) and severe malarial anemia (SMA) are the most serious life-threatening clinical syndromes of Plasmodium falciparum infection in childhood. Therefore it is important to understand the pathology underlying the development of CM and SMA, as opposed to uncomplicated malaria (UM). Different host responses to infection are likely to be reflected in plasma proteome-patterns that associate with clinical status and therefore provide indicators of the pathogenesis of these syndromes. METHODS AND FINDINGS Plasma and comprehensive clinical data for discovery and validation cohorts were obtained as part of a prospective case-control study of severe childhood malaria at the main tertiary hospital of the city of Ibadan, an urban and densely populated holoendemic malaria area in Nigeria. A total of 946 children participated in this study. Plasma was subjected to high-throughput proteomic profiling. Statistical pattern-recognition methods were used to find proteome-patterns that defined disease groups. Plasma proteome-patterns accurately distinguished children with CM and with SMA from those with UM, and from healthy or severely ill malaria-negative children. CONCLUSIONS We report that an accurate definition of the major childhood malaria syndromes can be achieved using plasma proteome-patterns. Our proteomic data can be exploited to understand the pathogenesis of the different childhood severe malaria syndromes

Data-driven malaria prevalence prediction in large densely populated urban holoendemic sub-Saharan West Africa

Over 200 million malaria cases globally lead to half-million deaths annually. The development of malaria prevalence prediction systems to support malaria care pathways has been hindered by lack of data, a tendency towards universal "monolithic" models (one-size-fits-all-regions) and a focus on long lead time predictions. Current systems do not provide short-term local predictions at an accuracy suitable for deployment in clinical practice. Here we show a data-driven approach that reliably produces one-month-ahead prevalence prediction within a densely populated all-year-round malaria metropolis of over 3.5 million inhabitants situated in Nigeria which has one of the largest global burdens of P. falciparum malaria. We estimate one-month-ahead prevalence in a unique 22-years prospective regional dataset of > 9 × 10^{4} participants attending our healthcare services. Our system agrees with both magnitude and direction of the prediction on validation data achieving MAE ≤ 6 × 10^{-2}, MSE ≤ 7 × 10^{-3}, PCC (median 0.63, IQR 0.3) and with more than 80% of estimates within a (+ 0.1 to - 0.05) error-tolerance range which is clinically relevant for decision-support in our holoendemic setting. Our data-driven approach could facilitate healthcare systems to harness their own data to support local malaria care pathways

Clinical and laboratory predictors of death in African children with features of severe malaria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The criteria for defining severe malaria have evolved over the last 20 years. We aimed to assess the strength of association of death with features currently characterizing severe malaria through a systematic review and meta-analysis. Electronic databases (Medline, Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Thomson Reuters Web of Knowledge) were searched to identify publications including African children with severe malaria. PRISMA guidelines were followed. Selection was based on design (epidemiological, clinical and treatment studies), setting (Africa), participants (children < 15 years old with severe malaria), outcome (survival/death rate), and prognostic indicators (clinical and laboratory features). Quality assessment was performed following the criteria of the 2011 Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2). Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for each study and prognostic indicator, and, when a test was assessed in at least two studies, pooled estimates of ORs were computed using fixed- or random-effects meta-analysis. A total of 601 articles were identified and screened and 30 publications were retained. Features with the highest pooled ORs were renal failure (5.96, 95% CI 2.93-12.11), coma score (4.83, 95% CI 3.11-7.5), hypoglycemia (4.59, 95% CI 2.68-7.89), shock (4.31, 95% CI 2.15-8.64), and deep breathing (3.8, 95% CI 3.29-4.39). Only half of the criteria had an OR > 2. Features with the lowest pooled ORs were impaired consciousness (0.58, 95% CI 0.25-1.37), severe anemia (0.76, 95% CI 0.5- 1.13), and prostration (1.12, 95% CI 0.45-2.82). The findings of this meta-analysis show that the strength of association between the criteria defining severe malaria and death is quite variable for each clinical and/or laboratory feature (OR ranging from 0.58 to 5.96). This ranking allowed the identification of features weakly associated with death, such as impaired consciousness and prostration, which could assist to improve case definition, and thus optimize antimalarial treatment

Neonatal hypothermia and associated risk factors among newborns of southern Nepal

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Neonatal hypothermia is associated with an increased mortality risk for 28 days. There are few community-based data on specific risk factors for neonatal hypothermia. Estimates of association between neonatal hypothermia in the community and risk factors are needed to guide the design of interventions to reduce exposure.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cohort of 23,240 babies in rural southern Nepal was visited at home by field workers who measured axillary temperatures for 28 days (213,316 temperature measurements). The cumulative incidence of hypothermia (defined as < 35.0°C based on an analysis of the hypothermia-mortality risk relationship) was examined for any association with infant characteristics, care practices and parental, household, socioeconomic and demographic factors. Estimates were adjusted for age and ambient temperature.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Ten percent of the babies (<it>n </it>= 2342) were observed with temperatures of < 35.0°C. Adjusted prevalence ratios (Adj PR) were increased among those who weighed < 2000 g [Adj PR = 4.32 (3.73, 5.00)] or < 1500 g [Adj PR = 11.63 (8.10, 16.70)] compared to those of normal weight (> 2500 g). Risk varied inversely along the entire weight spectrum: for every 100 g decrement hypothermia risk increased by 7.4%, 13.5% and 31.3%% for babies between 3000 g and 2500 g, 2500 g and 2000 g and < 2000 g, respectively. Preterm babies (< 34 weeks), females, those who had been first breastfed after 24 h and those with hypothermic mothers were at an increased risk. In the hot season the risk disparity between smaller and larger babies increased. Hypothermia was not associated with delayed bathing, hat wearing, room warming or skin-to-skin contact: they may have been practiced reactively and thereby obscured any potential benefit.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In addition to season in which the babies were born, weight is an important risk factor for hypothermia. Smaller babies are at higher relative risk of hypothermia during the warm period and do not receive the protective seasonal benefit apparent among larger babies. The need for year-round thermal care, early breastfeeding and maternal thermal care should be emphasized. Further work is needed to quantify the benefits of other simple neonatal thermal care practices.</p