Are Poverty and Social Goals for the 21st Century Attainable?

Summaries The article assesses the prospects for countries attaining two important International Development Goals (IDGs) by the year 2015: halving the proportion of people living in extreme poverty; and reducing by two thirds the death rate for children. On the basis of recent growth experience and predicted GDP growth rates, the picture is mixed. About a half of the developing countries for which data are available are likely to reach the poverty reduction target. However, with improved economic policy (reflected in the ‘openness’ index), the number of countries shown likely to achieve the target increases sharply. Prospects for achieving the child mortality target are much bleaker. Even under the most favorable scenario – improved female education and high economic growth – child mortality rates would be substantially above the IDG target for 2015. The article reviews the types of public action that are needed now if these targets are to be attained. It emphasises the need to focus on policy and institutional reforms needed to achieve well?functioning social sectors

The effects of development aid on irregular migration to europe: Deterrence or attraction?

MotivationResponding to growing immigration concerns in recent years, European countries have claimed to tackle the root causes of migration using development assistance. Some recent analyses find more aid associated to lower immigration, providing support to this policy. But these findings rely on measures of regular migration, while donors’ concern is on irregular migrants.PurposeThis study tests whether development aid has a deterring effect on irregular migration to Europe.MethodsAdopting innovative data on irregular migration flows to Europe between 2009 and 2016, a simultaneous equations model accounts for the potential endogeneity of both total and bilateral aid.FindingsThe study finds that total aid does not significantly reduce numbers of migrants apprehended at Europe’s border. Moreover, bilateral aid tends to raise these numbers. The estimated costs for each deterred irregular migrant are high: in the best‐case scenario the range is between USD 150,000 and USD 320,000. The estimated costs to deter regular migrants are even higher, between USD 0.9 million and USD 2.5 million. Both estimates concur with those from previous work. Findings are robust to different aid measures and specifications.Policy implicationsEmpirical results provide no evidence to support the use of development aid to deter migration

Priorities in Global Assistance for Health, AIDS, and Population

This article makes three points regarding international assistance in health, AIDS, and population. First, despite growing attention in the development policy dialogue, the share of health (broadly considered) in total assistance is actually declining, not increasing, if assistance for the HIV/AIDS crisis is taken out of the picture. Second, interventions financed by international health assistance do not closely correspond to the burden of disease as conventionally calculated. HIV/AIDS receives a share of assistance in excess of its contribution to the global burden of disease, and reasons for this are adduced. Third, despite the emphasis on aligning international assistance to country priorities, a comparison of how health is treated in poverty-reduction strategies and the nature of health assistance reveals no clear relationship between the two. This suggests that there may be room for improvement in the process of preparing such strategies, the allocation of health assistance, or both. Copyright 2005 The Population Council, Inc..