Analysis of Seasonal Time Series with Missing Observations of Fish Harvesting in Lake Victoria, Kenya

Time series is a measured observation recorded with time. The process of collecting data sometimes faces a lot of challenges that may arise due to defective working tools, misplaced or lost records and errors that are prone to occur. The most commonly used approaches to estimate missing values include the use of autoregressive-moving average models developed by Box Jenkins, use of extrapolation or interpolation under regression analysis and use of state space models where data is considered as a combination of level, trend and seasonal components. This paper intends to use the most appropriate method of estimating missing values by using the direct method of imputation. Incomplete secondary data obtained from the Ministry of fisheries development, together with the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute are to be used to estimate the gap left just before, during and immediately after the post election violence of the year 2007/2008, a time when data could not be obtained and/or recorded. The original time series data when analyzed produced a SARIMA model (0, 1, 1) (2, 0, 0)12 as the best candidate for the lower segment. SARIMA (0, 1, 2) (0, 0, 1)12 was produced for the upper segment using autoarima function in R package. The missing data were estimated using forecast from the lower segment which was extended to the in sample forecast in the upper segment. The regression test between predicted and the original values in upper segment proves the strong positive relationship indicating high level of accuracy on predictability of the model used. Keywords: Stationary and Stochastic process, Auto-covariance and Autocorrelation Function, Partial Autocorrelation Function, correlogram, Moving Average process, Autoregressive process

Tickborne Arbovirus Surveillance in Market Livestock, Nairobi, Kenya

Numerous tickborne viruses, including Dhori virus and foot-and-mouth disease virus, were isolated

Gender Differences in Clinical Presentation and Outcomes of Epidemic Kaposi Sarcoma in Uganda

The incidence of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) has increased dramatically among women in sub-Saharan Africa since the onset of the HIV pandemic, but data on KS disease in women are limited. To identify gender-related differences in KS presentation and outcomes, we evaluated the clinical manifestations and response in men and women with AIDS-associated KS in Uganda.HIV-infected adults with KS attending the Infectious Diseases Institute (IDI) and Uganda Cancer Institute (UCI) in Kampala, Uganda between 2004 and 2006 were included in a retrospective cohort. Evaluation of KS presentation was based on the clinical features described at the initial KS visit. Response was evaluated as the time to "improvement", as defined by any decrease in lesion size, lesion number, or edema. The cohort consisted of 197 adults with HIV and KS: 55% (108/197) were women. At presentation, the median CD4 T-cell count was significantly lower in women (58 cells/mm(3); IQR 11-156 cells/mm(3)) than men (124 cells/mm(3); IQR 22-254 cells/mm(3)) (p = 0.02). Women were more likely than men to present with lesions of the face (OR 2.8, 95% CI, 1.4, 5.7; p = 0.005) and hard palate (OR 2.0, 95% CI, 1.1, 3.7; p = 0.02), and were less likely than men to have lower extremity lesions (OR 0.54, 95% CI, 0.3, 0.99; p = 0.05). Women were less likely than men to demonstrate clinical improvement (HR = 0.52, CI 0.31, 0.88; p = 0.01) in multivariate analysis.The clinical presentation and response of KS differs between men and women in Uganda. These data suggest that gender affects the pathophysiology of KS, which may have implications for the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of KS in both men and women. Prospective studies are needed to identify predictors of response and evaluate efficacy of treatment in women with KS, particularly in Africa where the disease burden is greatest

Samverkan mellan Lean Construction och BIM

The Construction industry has had a relatively low increase in the efficiency rates over the recent years. Two developments of Lean construction and Building Information Modelling(BIM) have been introduced that have each shown improvements in the efficiency rates in construction. These two individual concepts of Lean and BIM have been applied each independent of the other and because of their similarities and overlapping benefits, it is thought that them being applied together improves the efficiency in a greater way than them being applied individually. This study looks at the synergy that is possible due to the overlapping benefits in applying Lean Construction and BIM. The study is a Literature review aimed at understanding Lean and BIM and their overlaps. The Literature looks at past research studies that have investigated this area. The clear look at these studies shows that when the two concepts are combined, then that collaboration leads to a more integrated process in construction that in turn yields higher efficiency rates.Byggindustrin har haft en relativt låg ökning i effektivitetstalen de senaste åren. Utvecklingen inom två nya områden, Lean Construction och Building Information Modelling (BIM), där man kunnat visa ökad effektivitet genom båda åtgärder. De två begreppen Lean Construction och BIM har introducerats oberoende av varandra på grund av deras likheter och överlappande fördelar men det är vid användningen av båda åtgärder samtidigt som den bästa effekten har kunnat visas i motsats mot om varje åtgärd hade använts separat. Denna studie undersöker synergieffekterna som är möjliga genom överlappande fördelar vid användandet av Lean Construction och BIM. Det är en litteraturstudie som syftar till att förstå Lean och BIM och deras överlappning. Litteraturen tittar på tidigare forskning som har undersökt detta område. En noggrann betraktelse av dessa studier visar att när de två åtgärderna kombineras leder det till en mer integrerad byggprocess som i sin tur ger högre effektivitetstal

Samverkan mellan Lean Construction och BIM

The Construction industry has had a relatively low increase in the efficiency rates over the recent years. Two developments of Lean construction and Building Information Modelling(BIM) have been introduced that have each shown improvements in the efficiency rates in construction. These two individual concepts of Lean and BIM have been applied each independent of the other and because of their similarities and overlapping benefits, it is thought that them being applied together improves the efficiency in a greater way than them being applied individually. This study looks at the synergy that is possible due to the overlapping benefits in applying Lean Construction and BIM. The study is a Literature review aimed at understanding Lean and BIM and their overlaps. The Literature looks at past research studies that have investigated this area. The clear look at these studies shows that when the two concepts are combined, then that collaboration leads to a more integrated process in construction that in turn yields higher efficiency rates.Byggindustrin har haft en relativt låg ökning i effektivitetstalen de senaste åren. Utvecklingen inom två nya områden, Lean Construction och Building Information Modelling (BIM), där man kunnat visa ökad effektivitet genom båda åtgärder. De två begreppen Lean Construction och BIM har introducerats oberoende av varandra på grund av deras likheter och överlappande fördelar men det är vid användningen av båda åtgärder samtidigt som den bästa effekten har kunnat visas i motsats mot om varje åtgärd hade använts separat. Denna studie undersöker synergieffekterna som är möjliga genom överlappande fördelar vid användandet av Lean Construction och BIM. Det är en litteraturstudie som syftar till att förstå Lean och BIM och deras överlappning. Litteraturen tittar på tidigare forskning som har undersökt detta område. En noggrann betraktelse av dessa studier visar att när de två åtgärderna kombineras leder det till en mer integrerad byggprocess som i sin tur ger högre effektivitetstal

ELISA absorbance cut‐off method affects malaria sporozoite rate determination in wild Afrotropical Anopheles

Malaria sporozoite infection rates in a mixed species group of 244 Anopheles gambiae Giles sensu lato and 115 An. funestus Giles wild female mosquitoes were compared using three methods to determine cutoff absorbance values for positivity of a Plasmodium falciparum Welch enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Positive controls were based on P. falciparum circumsporozoite protein. As negative controls, four wild male Anopheles were included on each microtitre plate; tests were repeated on four consecutive days for each plate. Infection rates were estimated at 13.1–22.8% using the mean absorbance value of negative controls plus three standard deviations, 11.7–12.8% using double the mean and 12.5–13.6% using the fixed cut‐off value of 0.20 (allowing for 20% variation in negative control absorbance values). Observed agreement for positivity or negativity among samples tested four times was 98.6% for the 2× mean method, 97.2% for the fixed cut‐off 0.20 value, but only 82.7% for the mean +3 SD method. It was concluded that the 2× mean cut‐off method is most reliable for field studies. P. falciparum sporozoite rates of 12.2% in An. funestus and 11.9% in An. gambiae s. l. were thus determined on the basis of the 2× mean cut‐off method. This comparative evaluation demonstrates that vector infectivity rates can be seriously over‐estimated from sporozoite ELISA tests, by as much as 87% in one case considered here, depending on the absorbance cut‐off method applied for negative controls

Roles and challenges of family physicians in Uganda: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND:The World Health report (2008), the World Health Assembly (2009) and the Declaration of Astana (2018) acknowledge the significant contribution of family physicians (FPs) in clinical and primary healthcare. Given the lack of resources and low numbers of FPs coupled with the contextual nature of family medicine (FM), the scope of practice of African FPs is likely to differ from that of colleagues in America and Europe. Thus, this study explored the roles of Ugandan FPs and the challenges they face. METHODS:This cross-sectional qualitative study was conducted through in-depth interviews with FPs who are working in Uganda. Participants who work in public and private healthcare systems including non-governmental organisations and in all geographical regions were purposively selected. Interviews were conducted from July 2016 to June 2017. Qualitative thematic content analysis of the transcripts was performed using a framework approach. RESULTS:The study team identified three and six thematic roles and challenges, respectively, from the interview transcripts. The roles were clinician, leadership and teaching and learning. Challenges included lack of common identity, low numbers of FPs, conflicting roles, unrealistic expectations, poor organisational infrastructure and lack of incentives. CONCLUSION:The major roles of FPs in Uganda are similar to those of their counterparts in other parts of the world. Family physicians provide clinical care for patients, including preventive and curative services; providing leadership, management and mentorship to clinical teams; and teaching and learning. However, their roles are exercised differently as a result of lack of proper institutionalisation of FM within the Uganda health system. Family physicians in Uganda have found many opportunities to contribute to healthcare leadership, education and service, but have not yet found a stable niche within the healthcare system