Multi-basin depositional framework for moisture-balance reconstruction during the last 1300 years at Lake Bogoria, central Kenya Rift Valley

Multi-proxy analysis of sediment cores from five key locations in hypersaline, alkaline Lake Bogoria (central Kenya Rift Valley) has allowed reconstruction of its history of depositional and hydrological change during the past 1300years. Analyses including organic matter and carbonate content, granulometry, mineralogical composition, charcoal counting and high-resolution scanning of magnetic susceptibility and elemental geochemistry resulted in a detailed sedimentological and compositional characterization of lacustrine deposits in the three lake basins and on the two sills separating them. Thesepalaeolimnological data were supplemented with information on present-day sedimentation conditions based on seasonal sampling of settling particles and on measurement of physicochemical profiles through the water column. A new age model based on Pb-210, Cs-137 and C-14 dating captures the sediment chronology of this hydrochemically complex and geothermally fed lake. An extensive set of chronological tie points between the equivalent high-resolution proxy time series of the five sediment sequences allowed transfer of radiometric dates between the basins, enabling interbasin comparison of sedimentation dynamics through time. The resulting reconstruction demonstrates considerable moisture-balance variability through time, reflecting regional hydroclimate dynamics over the past 1300years. Between ca 690 and 950AD, the central and southern basins of Lake Bogoria were reduced to shallow and separated brine pools. In the former, occasional near-complete desiccation triggered massive trona precipitation. Between ca 950 and 1100AD, slightly higher water levels allowed the build-up of high pCO(2) leading to precipitation of nahcolite still under strongly evaporative conditions. Lake Bogoria experienced a pronounced highstand between ca 1100 and 1350AD, only to recede again afterwards. For a substantial part of the time between ca 1350 and 1800AD, the northern basin was probably disconnected from the united central and southern basins. Throughout the last two centuries, lake level has been relatively high compared to the rest of the past millennium. Evidence for increased terrestrial sediment supply in recent decades, due to anthropogenic soil erosion in the wider Bogoria catchment, is a reason for concern about possible adverse impacts on the unique ecosystem of Lake Bogoria

Sensitivity analysis and calibration of the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) for the upper Malewa Catchment, Kenya.

Simulation models are widely used for studying physical processes such as surface runoff, sediment transport and sediment yield in catchments. Most models need case-specific empirical data for parameterization before being applied especially in regions other than the ones they have been developed. Sensitivity analysis is usually performed to determine the most influential factors of a model so that they can be prioritized for optimization. In this way uncertainties in model outputs can be reduced considerably. This study evaluates the commonly used modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE) model used for sediment yield simulation for the case of the upper Malewa catchment in Kenya. The conceptual factors of the model are assessed relative to the hydrological factors in the model. Also, the sensitivity of the model to the choice of the objective function in calibration is tested. The Sobol' sensitivity analysis method was used for evaluating the degree of sensitivity of the conceptual and hydrological factors for sediment yield simulations using the MUSLE model. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the modified Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSEm) are used to test the sensitivity of the model to the choice of the objective function and robustness of model performance with sediment data measured from upper Malewa catchment, Kenya. The results indicate that the conceptual factors are the most sensitive factors of the MUSLE model contributing about 66% of the variability in the output sediment yield. Increased variability of sediment yield output was also observed. This was attributed to interactions of input factors. For the upper Malewa catchment calibration of the MUSLE model indicates that the use of NSEm as an objective function provides stable results, which indicates that the model can satisfactorily be applied for sediment yield simulations

Sensitivity analysis and calibration of the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) for the upper Malewa Catchment, Kenya

Simulation models are widely used for studying physical processes such as surface runoff, sediment transport and sediment yield in catchments. Most models need case-specific empirical data for parameterization before being applied especially in regions other than the ones they have been developed. Sensitivity analysis is usually performed to determine the most influential factors of a model so that they can be prioritized for optimization. In this way uncertainties in model outputs can be reduced considerably. This study evaluates the commonly used modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE) model used for sediment yield simulation for the case of the upper Malewa catchment in Kenya. The conceptual factors of the model are assessed relative to the hydrological factors in the model. Also, the sensitivity of the model to the choice of the objective function in calibration is tested. The Sobol' sensitivity analysis method was used for evaluating the degree of sensitivity of the conceptual and hydrological factors for sediment yield simulations using the MUSLE model. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the modified Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSEm) are used to test the sensitivity of the model to the choice of the objective function and robustness of model performance with sediment data measured from upper Malewa catchment, Kenya. The results indicate that the conceptual factors are the most sensitive factors of the MUSLE model contributing about 66% of the variability in the output sediment yield. Increased variability of sediment yield output was also observed. This was attributed to interactions of input factors. For the upper Malewa catchment calibration of the MUSLE model indicates that the use of NSEm as an objective function provides stable results, which indicates that the model can satisfactorily be applied for sediment yield simulations

The Effects of Groundwater and Surface Water Use on Total Water Availability and Implication for Water Management: The Case of Lake Naivasha, Kenya

This study discusses the effects of water abstractions from two alternative sources on the available water volume around Lake Naivasha, Kenya: the lake itself and a connected aquifer. An estimation of the water abstraction pattern for the period 1999–2010 is made and its effect on the available water volume in Lake Naivasha and its connected aquifer is evaluated using a simple water balance modeling approach. This study shows that accurate estimates of annual volume changes of Lake Naivasha can be made using a simple monthly water balance approach that takes into account the exchange of water between the lake and its connected aquifer. The amount of water that is used for irrigation in the area around Lake Naivasha has a substantial adverse effect on the availability of water. Simulation results of our simple water balance model suggests that abstractions from groundwater affect the lake volume less than direct abstractions from the lake. Groundwater volumes, in contrast, are much more affected by groundwater abstractions and therefore lead to much lower groundwater levels. Moreover, when groundwater is used instead of surface water, evaporation losses from the lake are potentially higher due to a larger lake surface area. If that would be the case then the overall water availability in the area is more strongly affected by the abstraction of groundwater than by the abstraction of surface water. Therefore water managers should be cautious when using lake levels as the only indicator of water availability for restricting water abstractions

Coupling socio-economic factors and eco-hydrological processes using a cascade-modeling approach

Most hydrological studies do not account for the socio-economic influences on eco-hydrological processes. However, socio-economic developments often change the water balance substantially and are highly relevant in understanding changes in hydrological responses. In this study a multi-disciplinary approach was used to study the cascading impacts of socio-economic drivers of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on the eco-hydrological regime of the Lake Naivasha Basin. The basin has recently experienced substantial LULC changes exacerbated by socio-economic drivers. The simplified cascade models provided insights for an improved understanding of the socio-ecohydrological system. Results show that the upstream population has transformed LULC such that runoff during the period 1986–2010 was 32% higher than during the period 1961–1985. Cut-flower export volumes and downstream population growth explain 71% of the water abstracted from Lake Naivasha. The influence of upstream population on LULC and upstream hydrological processes explained 59% and 30% of the variance in lake storage volumes and sediment yield respectively. The downstream LULC changes had significant impact on large wild herbivore mammal species on the fringe zone of the lake. This study shows that, in cases where observed socio-economic developments are substantial, the use of a cascade-modeling approach, that couple socio-economic factors to eco-hydrological processes, can greatly improve our understanding of the eco-hydrological processes of a catchment

Coupling socio-economic factors and eco-hydrological processes using a cascade-modeling approach

Most hydrological studies do not account for the socio-economic influences on eco-hydrological processes. However, socio-economic developments often change the water balance substantially and are highly relevant in understanding changes in hydrological responses. In this study a multi-disciplinary approach was used to study the cascading impacts of socio-economic drivers of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on the eco-hydrological regime of the Lake Naivasha Basin. The basin has recently experienced substantial LULC changes exacerbated by socio-economic drivers. The simplified cascade models provided insights for an improved understanding of the socio-ecohydrological system. Results show that the upstream population has transformed LULC such that runoff during the period 1986–2010 was 32% higher than during the period 1961–1985. Cut-flower export volumes and downstream population growth explain 71% of the water abstracted from Lake Naivasha. The influence of upstream population on LULC and upstream hydrological processes explained 59% and 30% of the variance in lake storage volumes and sediment yield respectively. The downstream LULC changes had significant impact on large wild herbivore mammal species on the fringe zone of the lake. This study shows that, in cases where observed socio-economic developments are substantial, the use of a cascade-modeling approach, that couple socio-economic factors to eco-hydrological processes, can greatly improve our understanding of the eco-hydrological processes of a catchment