83 research outputs found
Evaluation of "care of the foot" as a risk factor for diabetic foot ulceration: The role of internal physicians
No Abstract
Incorporating ‘recruitment’ in matrix projection models : estimation, parameters, and the influence of model structure
Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2010. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Ornithology 152, Suppl.2 (2012):585-595, doi:10.1007/s10336-010-0573-1.Advances in the estimation of population parameters
using encounter data from marked individuals have
made it possible to include estimates of the probability of
recruitment in population projection models. However, the
projected growth rate of the population, and the sensitivity
of projected growth to changes in recruitment, can vary
significantly depending upon both the structural form of the
model and how recruitment is parameterized. We show that
the common practices of (1) collapsing some age classes
into a single, terminal ‘aggregated’ age-class, and (2) parameterizing
recruitment using the proportion of recruited
individuals (breeders) in a given age-class may confound
analysis of age-based (Leslie) matrix projection models in
some instances, relative to state-based projection models
where recruited and pre-recruited individuals are treated as
separate states. Failing to account for these differences can
lead to misinterpretation of the relative role of recruitment in
the dynamics of an age-structured population.We show that
such problems can be avoided, either by structural changes
to the terminal aggregated age-class in age-based models,
or by using using a state-based model instead. Since all
the metrics of general interest from a classical age-based
matrix models are readily derived from a state-based model
equivalent, this suggests there may be little reason to use the
classical age-based approach in situations where recruitment
is a parameter of interest
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ADC Nonlinearity Correction for the Majorana Demonstrator
Imperfections in analog-to-digital conversion (ADC) cannot be ignored when signal digitization requirements demand both wide dynamic range and high resolution, as is the case for the Majorana Demonstrator 76Ge neutrinoless double-beta decay search. Enabling the experiment's high-resolution spectral analysis and efficient pulse shape discrimination required careful measurement and correction of ADC nonlinearities. A simple measurement protocol was developed that did not require sophisticated equipment or lengthy data-taking campaigns. A slope-dependent hysteresis was observed and characterized. A correction applied to digitized waveforms prior to signal processing reduced the differential and integral nonlinearities by an order of magnitude, eliminating these as dominant contributions to the systematic energy uncertainty at the double-beta decay Q value
Spatial distribution of podoconiosis in relation to environmental factors in Ethiopia: a historical review
BACKGROUND
An up-to-date and reliable map of podoconiosis is needed to design geographically targeted and cost-effective intervention in Ethiopia. Identifying the ecological correlates of the distribution of podoconiosis is the first step for distribution and risk maps. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatial distribution and ecological correlates of podoconiosis using historical and contemporary survey data.
METHODS
Data on the observed prevalence of podoconiosis were abstracted from published and unpublished literature into a standardized database, according to strict inclusion and exclusion criteria. In total, 10 studies conducted between 1969 and 2012 were included, and data were available for 401,674 individuals older than 15 years of age from 229 locations. A range of high resolution environmental factors were investigated to determine their association with podoconiosis prevalence, using logistic regression.
RESULTS
The prevalence of podoconiosis in Ethiopia was estimated at 3.4% (95% CI 3.3%-3.4%) with marked regional variation. We identified significant associations between mean annual Land Surface Temperature (LST), mean annual precipitation, topography of the land and fine soil texture and high prevalence of podoconiosis. The derived maps indicate both widespread occurrence of podoconiosis and a marked variability in prevalence of podoconiosis, with prevalence typically highest at altitudes >1500 m above sea level (masl), with >1500 mm annual rainfall and mean annual LST of 19-21°C. No (or very little) podoconiosis occurred at altitudes 24°C.
CONCLUSION
Podoconiosis remains a public health problem in Ethiopia over considerable areas of the country, but exhibits marked geographical variation associated in part with key environmental factors. This is work in progress and the results presented here will be refined in future work
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Results of the MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR's Search for Double-Beta Decay of 76Ge to Excited States of 76Se
The MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR is searching for double-beta decay of 76Ge to excited states (E.S.) in 76Se using a modular array of high purity Germanium detectors. 76Ge can decay into three E.S.s of 76Se. The E.S. decays have a clear event signature consisting of a ββ-decay with the prompt emission of one or two γ-rays, resulting in with high probability in a multi-site event. The granularity of the DEMONSTRATOR detector array enables powerful discrimination of this event signature from backgrounds. Using 21.3 kg-y of isotopic exposure, the DEMONSTRATOR has set world leading limits for each E.S. decay, with 90% CL lower half-life limits in the range of (0.56 2.1) ⋅ 1024 y. In particular, for the 2v transition to the first 0+ E.S. of 76Se, a lower half-life limit of 0.68 ⋅ 1024 at 90% CL was achieved
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How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics
Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable
populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators.
Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species,
it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding
season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating
population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in
the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling.
Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and
ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities
whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical
autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of
altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the
presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator
assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the
oscillations.
Significance: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results
allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the
reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape
fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in
future analyses of vole dynamics
Senescence Is More Important in the Natural Lives of Long- Than Short-Lived Mammals
Senescence has been widely detected among mammals, but its importance to fitness in wild populations remains controversial. According to evolutionary theories, senescence occurs at an age when selection is relatively weak, which in mammals can be predicted by adult survival rates. However, a recent analysis of senescence rates found more age-dependent mortalities in natural populations of longer lived mammal species. This has important implications to ageing research and for understanding the ecological relevance of senescence, yet so far these have not been widely appreciated. We re-address this question by comparing the mean and maximum life span of 125 mammal species. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that senescence occurs at a younger age relative to the mean natural life span in longer lived species.We show, using phylogenetically-informed generalised least squares models, a significant log-log relationship between mean life span, as calculated from estimates of adult survival for natural populations, and maximum recorded life span among mammals (R2=0.57, p<0.0001). This provides further support for a key prediction of evolutionary theories of ageing. The slope of this relationship (0.353+/-0.052 s.e.m.), however, indicated that mammals with higher survival rates have a mean life span representing a greater fraction of their potential maximum life span: the ratio of maximum to mean life span decreased significantly from >10 in short-lived to approximately 1.5 in long-lived mammal species.We interpret the ratio of maximum to mean life span to be an index of the likelihood an individual will experience senescence, which largely determines maximum life span. Our results suggest that senescence occurs at an earlier age relative to the mean life span, and therefore is experienced by more individuals and remains under selection pressure, in long- compared to short-lived mammals. A minimum rate of somatic degradation may ultimately limit the natural life span of mammals. Our results also indicate that senescence and modulating factors like oxidative stress are increasingly important to the fitness of longer lived mammals (and vice versa)
Variations in the prevalence of point (pre)hypertension in a Nigerian school-going adolescent population living in a semi-urban and an urban area
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hypertension has been shown to start in early life and to track into adulthood. Detecting adolescents with hypertension and prehypertension will aid early intervention and reduce morbidity and mortality from the disorders. This study reports the point-prevalence of the two disorders in a semi-urban and an urban population of school-going adolescents in Nigeria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 843 adolescents from two places of domicile were studied. Their blood pressures and anthropometric indices were measured using standard protocol. Point-hypertension and point-prehypertension were defined with respect to each subject's gender, age and height. The prevalence of the disorders was calculated and reported age-wise and nutritional status-wise.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of point-prehypertension in the semi-urban area was 22.2% (20.7% for girls and 23.1% for boys) while it was 25.0% (21.8% for girls and 29.2% for boys) in the urban area. The prevalence of point-hypertension was 4.6% (4.1% for girls and 4.8% for boys) in the semi-urban area and 17.5% (18.0% for girls and 16.9% for boys) in the urban area. Point-prehypertension was not detected among the thin subjects of both places of domicile. The prevalence of point-prehypertension was similar in both the urban and semi-urban areas among the subjects who had normal BMI-for-age, and over-weight/obese subjects respectively. From the semi-urban to the urban area, the prevalence of point-hypertension increased approximately 3-folds among thin and normal BMI-for-age subjects, and 10-folds among overweight/obese subjects. Systolic hypertension was more preponderant in both the semi-urban and urban areas.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The prevalence of both disorders is considerably high in the studied populations. Urgent pediatric public health action is needed to address the situation.</p
New Insights on the Management of Wildlife Diseases Using Multi-State Recapture Models: The Case of Classical Swine Fever in Wild Boar
The understanding of host-parasite systems in wildlife is of increasing interest in relation to the risk of emerging diseases in livestock and humans. In this respect, many efforts have been dedicated to controlling classical swine fever (CSF) in the European Wild Boar. But CSF eradication has not always been achieved even though vaccination has been implemented at a large-scale. Piglets have been assumed to be the main cause of CSF persistence in the wild since they appeared to be more often infected and less often immune than older animals. However, this assumption emerged from laboratory trials or cross-sectional surveys based on the hunting bags.In the present paper we conducted a capture-mark-recapture study in free-ranging wild boar piglets that experienced both CSF infection and vaccination under natural conditions. We used multi-state capture recapture models to estimate the immunization and infection rates, and their variations according to the periods with or without vaccination. According to the model prediction, 80% of the infected piglets did not survive more than two weeks, while the other 20% quickly recovered. The probability of becoming immune did not increase significantly during the summer vaccination sessions, and the proportion of immune piglets was not higher after the autumn vaccination.Given the high lethality of CSF in piglets highlighted in our study, we consider unlikely that piglets could maintain the chain of CSF virus transmission. Our study also revealed the low efficacy of vaccination in piglets in summer and autumn, possibly due to the low palatability of baits to that age class, but also to the competition between baits and alternative food sources. Based on this new information, we discuss the prospects for the improvement of CSF control and the interest of the capture-recapture approach for improving the understanding of wildlife diseases
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