Environmentally induced phenotypic variation in wild yellow-bellied marmots

We thank all the marmoteers who helped in data collection and 2 anonymous reviewers who helped us to clarify our message. AM-C was supported by a Fulbright Fellowship, and JGAM was supported by Fond Québécois de Recherche sur la Nature et les Technologies. KBA was supported by the National Science Foundation between 1962 and 2000. DTB was supported by the National Geographic Society, UCLA (Faculty Senate and the Division of Life Sciences), a Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory research fellowship, and by the National Science Foundation (IDBR-0754247 and DEB-1119660 to DTB as well as DBI 0242960 and 0731346 to the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory).Peer reviewedPostprin

Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods

Background: In 2011, the World Health Organization recognized podoconiosis as one of the neglected tropical diseases. Nonetheless, the number of people with podoconiosis and the geographical distribution of the disease is poorly understood. Based on a nationwide mapping survey and geostatistical modelling, we predict the prevalence of podoconiosis and estimate the number of cases across Ethiopia. Methods: We used nationwide data collected in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2013. Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 villages in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations. We developed a geostatistical model of podoconiosis prevalence among adults (individuals aged 15 years or above), by combining environmental factors. The number of people with podoconiosis was then estimated using a gridded map of adult population density for 2015. Results: Podoconiosis is endemic in 345 districts in Ethiopia: 144 in Oromia, 128 in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s [SNNP], 64 in Amhara, 4 in Benishangul Gumuz, 4 in Tigray and 1 in Somali Regional State. Nationally, our estimates suggest that 1,537,963 adults (95% confidence intervals, 290,923-4,577,031 adults) were living with podoconiosis in 2015. Three regions (SNNP, Oromia and Amhara) contributed 99% of the cases. The highest proportion of individuals with podoconiosis resided in the SNNP (39%), while 32% and 29% of people with podoconiosis resided in Oromia and Amhara Regional States, respectively. Tigray and Benishangul Gumuz Regional States bore lower burdens, and in the remaining regions, podoconiosis was almost non-existent. Discussion: The estimates of podoconiosis cases presented here based upon the combination of currently available epidemiological data and a robust modelling approach clearly show that podoconiosis is highly endemic in Ethiopia. Given the presence of low cost prevention, and morbidity management and disability prevention services, it is our collective responsibility to scale-up interventions rapidly

Demographic consequences of changes in environmental periodicity

The fate of natural populations is mediated by complex interactions among vital rates, which can vary within and among years. Although the effects of random, among-year variation in vital rates have been studied extensively, relatively little is known about how periodic, nonrandom variation in vital rates affects populations. This knowledge gap is potentially alarming as global environmental change is projected to alter common periodic variations, such as seasonality. We investigated the effects of changes in vital-rate periodicity on populations of three species representing different forms of adaptation to periodic environments: the yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventer), adapted to strong seasonality in snowfall; the meerkat (Suricata suricatta), adapted to inter-annual stochasticity as well as seasonal patterns in rainfall; and the dewy pine (Drosophyllum lusitanicum), adapted to fire regimes and periodic post-fire habitat succession. To assess how changes in periodicity affect population growth, we parameterized periodic matrix population models and projected population dynamics under different scenarios of perturbations in the strength of vital-rate periodicity. We assessed the effects of such perturbations on various metrics describing population dynamics, including the stochastic growth rate, log λS. Overall, perturbing the strength of periodicity had strong effects on population dynamics in all three study species. For the marmots, log λS decreased with increased seasonal differences in adult survival. For the meerkats, density dependence buffered the effects of perturbations of periodicity on log λS. Finally, dewy pines were negatively affected by changes in natural post-fire succession under stochastic or periodic fire regimes with fires occurring every 30 years, but were buffered by density dependence from such changes under presumed more frequent fires or large-scale disturbances. We show that changes in the strength of vital-rate periodicity can have diverse but strong effects on population dynamics across different life histories. Populations buffered from inter-annual vital-rate variation can be affected substantially by changes in environmentally driven vital-rate periodic patterns; however, the effects of such changes can be masked in analyses focusing on inter-annual variation. As most ecosystems are affected by periodic variations in the environment such as seasonality, assessing their contributions to population viability for future global-change research is crucial.European Research Council Advanced Grant; H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions; Mammal Research Institute, University of Pretoria; MAVA Foundation; Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad; National Geographic Society; U.S. National Science Foundation; Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory research fellowship; Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung and UCLA (Faculty Senate and Division of Life Sciences).https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/r/ecyhj2023Mammal Research Institut

How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. Significance: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics

Results of the MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR's Search for Double-Beta Decay of 76Ge to Excited States of 76Se

The MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR is searching for double-beta decay of 76Ge to excited states (E.S.) in 76Se using a modular array of high purity Germanium detectors. 76Ge can decay into three E.S.s of 76Se. The E.S. decays have a clear event signature consisting of a ββ-decay with the prompt emission of one or two γ-rays, resulting in with high probability in a multi-site event. The granularity of the DEMONSTRATOR detector array enables powerful discrimination of this event signature from backgrounds. Using 21.3 kg-y of isotopic exposure, the DEMONSTRATOR has set world leading limits for each E.S. decay, with 90% CL lower half-life limits in the range of (0.56 2.1) ⋅ 1024 y. In particular, for the 2v transition to the first 0+ E.S. of 76Se, a lower half-life limit of 0.68 ⋅ 1024 at 90% CL was achieved

ADC Nonlinearity Correction for the Majorana Demonstrator

Imperfections in analog-to-digital conversion (ADC) cannot be ignored when signal digitization requirements demand both wide dynamic range and high resolution, as is the case for the Majorana Demonstrator 76Ge neutrinoless double-beta decay search. Enabling the experiment's high-resolution spectral analysis and efficient pulse shape discrimination required careful measurement and correction of ADC nonlinearities. A simple measurement protocol was developed that did not require sophisticated equipment or lengthy data-taking campaigns. A slope-dependent hysteresis was observed and characterized. A correction applied to digitized waveforms prior to signal processing reduced the differential and integral nonlinearities by an order of magnitude, eliminating these as dominant contributions to the systematic energy uncertainty at the double-beta decay Q value

Cyclic voles and shrews and non-cyclic mice in a marginal grassland within European temperate forest

Cyclic population dynamics of small mammals are not restricted to the boreal and arctic zones of Eurasia and North America, but long-term data series from lower latitudes are still less common. We demonstrated here the presence of periodic oscillations in small mammal populations in eastern Poland using 22-year (1986–2007) trapping data from marginal meadow and river valley grasslands located in the extensive temperate woodland of Białowieża Primeval Forest. The two most common species inhabiting meadows and river valleys, root vole Microtus oeconomus and common shrew Sorex araneus, exhibited synchronous periodic changes, characterised by a 3-year time lag as indicated by an autocorrelation function. Moreover, the cycles of these two species were synchronous within both habitats. Population dynamics of the striped field mouse Apodemus agrarius was not cyclic. However, this species regularly reached maximum density 1 year before the synchronized peak of root voles and common shrews, which may suggest the existence of interspecific competition. Dynamics of all three species was dominated by direct density-dependent process, whereas delayed density dependent feedback was significant only in the root vole and common shrew. Climatic factors acting in winter and spring (affecting mainly survival and initial reproduction rates) were more important than those acting in summer and autumn and affected significantly only the common shrew. High temperatures in winter and spring had positive effects on autumn-to-autumn changes in abundance of this species, whereas deep snow in combination with high rainfall in spring negatively affected population increase rates in common shrew

Constraints on the decay of 180m^{180m}Ta

$^{180m}$Ta is a rare nuclear isomer whose decay has never been observed. Its remarkably long lifetime surpasses the half-lives of all other known $\beta$ and electron capture decays due to the large K-spin differences and small energy differences between the isomeric and lower energy states. Detecting its decay presents a significant experimental challenge but could shed light on neutrino-induced nucleosynthesis mechanisms, the nature of dark matter and K-spin violation. For this study, we repurposed the MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR, an experimental search for the neutrinoless double-beta decay of $^{76}$Ge using an array of high-purity germanium detectors, to search for the decay of $^{180m}$Ta. More than 17 kilograms, the largest amount of tantalum metal ever used for such a search was installed within the ultra-low background detector array. In this paper we present results from the first year of Ta data taking and provide an updated limit for the $^{180m}$Ta half-life on the different decay channels. With new limits up to 1.5 x $10^{19}$ years, we improved existing limits by one to two orders of magnitude. This result is the most sensitive search for a single $\beta$ and electron capture decay ever achieved

Interpretable Boosted Decision Tree Analysis for the Majorana Demonstrator

The Majorana Demonstrator is a leading experiment searching for neutrinoless double-beta decay with high purity germanium detectors (HPGe). Machine learning provides a new way to maximize the amount of information provided by these detectors, but the data-driven nature makes it less interpretable compared to traditional analysis. An interpretability study reveals the machine's decision-making logic, allowing us to learn from the machine to feedback to the traditional analysis. In this work, we have presented the first machine learning analysis of the data from the Majorana Demonstrator; this is also the first interpretable machine learning analysis of any germanium detector experiment. Two gradient boosted decision tree models are trained to learn from the data, and a game-theory-based model interpretability study is conducted to understand the origin of the classification power. By learning from data, this analysis recognizes the correlations among reconstruction parameters to further enhance the background rejection performance. By learning from the machine, this analysis reveals the importance of new background categories to reciprocally benefit the standard Majorana analysis. This model is highly compatible with next-generation germanium detector experiments like LEGEND since it can be simultaneously trained on a large number of detectors.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figure