143 research outputs found
Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures
The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations,
and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity
has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at
Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The
strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10-12 years.
The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in
the following cycle, is used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature, and
seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models
show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no
additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95
per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and
winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring,
summer and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exists, and
additional variables may contribute to the variations.
These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean
temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5\pm2 oC from solar cycle 23 to solar
cycle 24 (2009-20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of \approx6 oC.Comment: 14 pages, including 5 figure
Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures
The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10-12 years. The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle are used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature and seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer, and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exist, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5 ± 2 • C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009-20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of ≈ 6 • C
The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24
Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature
in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological
stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is
found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same
cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle
and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an
average temperature decrease of at least 1.0 "C from solar cycle 23 to 24 for
the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations
investigated that 25-56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be
attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63-72% solar
contribution. This points to the Atlantic currents as reinforcing a solar
signal.Comment: Accepted for publication in Journal of Atmospheric and
Solar-Terrestrial Physics February 9, 201
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