Environmental water quantity projections under market-driven and sustainability-driven future scenarios in the Narew basin, Poland

The aim of this article is to assess the impact of four scenarios combining possible changes in climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide, land use and water use by 2050, on the specific set of ecologically relevant flow regime indicators that define environmental flow requirements in a semi-natural river basin in Poland. This aim is presented through a modelling case study using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Indicators show both positive and negative responses to future changes. Warm projections from the IPSL-CM4 global climate model combined with sustainable land- and water-use projections (SuE) produce the most negative changes, while warm and wet projections from the MIROC3.2 model combined with market-driven projections (EcF) gave the most positive changes. Climate change overshadows land- and water-use change in terms of the magnitude of projected flow alterations. The future of environmental water quantity is brighter under the market-driven rather than the sustainability-driven scenario, which shows that sustainability for terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. more forests and grasslands) can be at variance with sustainability for riverine and riparian ecosystems (requiring sufficient amount and proper timing of river flows)

Controls on anastomosis in lowland river systems: Towards process-based solutions to habitat conservation

Anastomosing rivers were historically common around the world before extensive agricultural and industrial development in river valleys. Few lowland anastomosing rivers remain in temperate zones, and the protection of these river-floodplain systems is an international conservation priority. However, the mechanisms that drive the creation and maintenance of multiple channels, i.e. anabranches, are not well understood, particularly for lowland rivers, making it challenging to identify effective management strategies. This study uses a novel multi-scale, process-based hydro-geomorphological approach to investigate the natural and anthropogenic controls on anastomosis in lowland river reaches. Using a wide range of data (hydrologic, cartographic, remote-sensing, historical), the study (i) quantifies changes in the planform of the River Narew, Poland over the last 100 years, (ii) documents changes in the natural and anthropogenic factors that could be driving the geomorphic change, and (iii) develops a conceptual model of the controls of anastomosis. The results show that 110 km of anabranches have been lost from the Narew National Park (6810 ha), a 42% reduction in total anabranch length since 1900. The rates of anabranch loss have increased as the number of pressures inhibiting anabranch creation and maintenance has multiplied. The cessation of localized water level and channel management (fishing dams, water mills and timber rafting), the loss of traditional floodplain activities (seasonal mowing) and infrastructure construction (embanked roads and an upstream dam) are contributing to low water levels and flows, the deposition of sediment at anabranch inlets, the encroachment of common reed (Phragmites australis), and the eventual loss of anabranches. By identifying the processes driving the loss of anabranches, this study provides transferable insights into the controls of anastomosis in lowland rivers and the management solutions needed to preserve the unique anastomosing river pattern and diverse wet grasslands that are central to the conservation value of lowland floodplains

Responses of fish and invertebrates to floods and droughts in Europe

Floods and droughts, two opposite natural components of streamflow regimes, are known to regulate population size and species diversity. Quantifiable measures of these disturbances and their subsequent ecological responses are needed to synthesize the knowledge on flow–ecosystem relationships. This study for the first time combines the systematic review approach used to collect evidence on the ecological responses to floods and droughts in Europe with the statistical methods used to quantify the extreme events severity. Out of 854 publications identified in literature search, 54 papers were retained after screening and eligibility checks, providing in total 82 case studies with unique extreme event—ecological response associations for which data were extracted. In this way, a database with metadata of case studies that can be explored with respect to various factors was constructed. This study pinpointed the research gaps where little evidence could be synthesized, for example, drought event studies and fish studies. It was demonstrated that in many cases the studied metrics (abundance, density, richness, and diversity) showed statistically significant decreases after or during the event occurrence. The responses in invertebrate density and richness were in general more negative than the corresponding responses in fish. Biota resistance to floods was found to be lower than the resistance to droughts. The severity of extreme events was not found to be an important factor influencing ecological metrics, although this analysis was often hampered by insufficient number of case studies. Conceivably, other factors could mask any existing relationships between disturbance severity and biotic response

Responses of fish and invertebrates to floods and droughts in Europe

Floods and droughts, two opposite natural components of streamflow regimes, are known to regulate population size and species diversity. Quantifiable measures of these disturbances and their subsequent ecological responses are needed to synthesize the knowledge on flow–ecosystem relationships. This study for the first time combines the systematic review approach used to collect evidence on the ecological responses to floods and droughts in Europe with the statistical methods used to quantify the extreme events severity. Out of 854 publications identified in literature search, 54 papers were retained after screening and eligibility checks, providing in total 82 case studies with unique extreme event—ecological response associations for which data were extracted. In this way, a database with metadata of case studies that can be explored with respect to various factors was constructed. This study pinpointed the research gaps where little evidence could be synthesized, for example, drought event studies and fish studies. It was demonstrated that in many cases the studied metrics (abundance, density, richness, and diversity) showed statistically significant decreases after or during the event occurrence. The responses in invertebrate density and richness were in general more negative than the corresponding responses in fish. Biota resistance to floods was found to be lower than the resistance to droughts. The severity of extreme events was not found to be an important factor influencing ecological metrics, although this analysis was often hampered by insufficient number of case studies. Conceivably, other factors could mask any existing relationships between disturbance severity and biotic response

Modelling Climate Change’s Impact on the Hydrology of Natura 2000 Wetland Habitats in the Vistula and Odra River Basins in Poland

Climate change is expected to affect the water cycle through changes in precipitation, river streamflow, and soil moisture dynamics, and therefore, present a threat to groundwater and surface water-fed wetland habitats and their biodiversity. This article examines the past trends and future impacts of climate change on riparian, water-dependent habitats within the special areas of conservation (SAC) of the Natura 2000 network located within Odra and Vistula River basins in Poland. Hydrological modelling using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was driven by a set of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate models under two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Changes in the duration of flooding and inundation events were used to assess climate change’s impact on surface water-fed wetland habitats. The groundwater-fed wetlands were evaluated on the basis of changes in soil water content. Information about the current conservation status, threats, and pressures that affect the habitats suggest that the wetlands might dry out. Increased precipitation projected for the future causing increased water supply to both surface water and groundwater-fed wetlands would lead to beneficial outcomes for habitats with good, average, or reduced conservation status. However, habitats with an excellent conservation status that are already in optimum condition could be negatively affected by climate change as increased soil water or duration of overbank flow would exceed their tolerance

A hierarchical approach on groundwater-surface water interaction in wetlands along the upper Biebrza River, Poland

This paper presents a hierarchical approach for quantifying and interpreting groundwater-surface water interaction in space and time. The results for the upper Biebrza show predominantly upward water fluxes, sections of recharge, however, exist along the reach. The fluxes depend more on hydraulic gradients than on riverbed conductivity. This indicates that the fluvio-plain scale is required for interpreting the exchange fluxes, which are estimated on a local scale. The paper shows that a conceptual framework is necessary for understanding the groundwater-surface water interaction processes, where the exchange fluxes are influenced by local factors like the composition of the riverbed and the position of the measurement on a local scale, and by regional factors like the hydrogeology and topography on a fluvio-plain scale. The hierarchical methodology increases the confidence in the estimated exchange fluxes and improves the process understanding. The accuracy of the measurements and related uncertainties, however, remain challenges for wetland environments. Gaining quantitative information on groundwatersurface water interaction can improve modeling confidence and as a consequence helps to develop effective procedures for management and conservation of valuable groundwater dependent wetlands

Model-based reconstruction and projections of soil moisture anomalies and crop losses in Poland

Evidence shows that soil moisture (SM) anomalies (deficits or excesses) are the key factor affecting crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. Over last decades, Poland has faced several major droughts and at least one major soil moisture excess event leading to severe crop losses. This study aims to simulate the multi-annual variability of SM anomalies in Poland, using a process-based SWAT model and to assess the effect of climate change on future extreme SM conditions, potentially affecting crop yields in Poland. A crop-specific indicator based on simulated daily soil moisture content for the critical development stages of investigated crops (winter cereals, spring cereals, potato and maize) was designed, evaluated for past conditions against empirical crop-weather indices (CWIs), and applied for studying future climate conditions. The study used an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX projections for two future horizons: 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and 8.5. Historical simulation results showed that SWAT was capable of capturing major SM deficit and excess episodes for different crops in Poland. For spring cereals, potato and maize, despite a large model spread, projections generally showed increase of severity of soil moisture deficits, as well as of total area affected by them. Ensemble median fraction of land with extreme soil moisture deficits, occupied by each of these crops, is projected to at least double in size. The signals of change in soil moisture excesses for potato and maize were more dependent on selection of RCP and future horizon. © 2020, The Author(s)

Circular nutrient solutions for agriculture and wastewater : a review of technologies and practices

This paper summarizes key findings from a series of systematic reviews and comprehensive efforts to collate evidence and expert opinions on circular solutions for recovery and reuse of nutrients and carbon from different waste streams in the agriculture and wastewater sectors. We identify established and emerging approaches for transformation towards a more circular nutrient economy with relevance to SDGs 6 and 14. The paper cites the example of the Baltic Sea Region which has experienced decades of fertilizer overuse (1950s–1990s) and concomitant urban sources of excessive nutrients. Regulations and incentive policies combining the nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon cycles are necessary if circular nutrient technologies and practices are to be scaled up. Pricing chemical fertilizer at levels to reflect society’s call for circularity is a central challenge. Highlights • Development of a circular nutrient economy in the EU is reviewed. • The socio-economic value of organic waste products from agriculture & municipalities needs to increase. • Opportunities are found in the new EU Circular Economy Package & Fertilizing Products Regulations. • Further implementation is possible with the Common Agriculture Policy (nutrient management tool) and Waste Framework Directive for recycling. • The Baltic Sea Region case is explored being sensitive to eutrophication with ongoing international efforts to introduce nutrient circularity