The Macro-Economic and Sectoral Impacts of HIV and AIDS in India

The adverse economic impact of HIV and AIDS occurs at three levels : the individual/household, sector, and national or macro-levels. In the early phase of the epidemic, the impacts at the sector and macro-levels are rather mild and, hence, not easily measurable or quantifiable. So far in India, given the low overall prevalence, the focus has been on the effects at the level of the individual and the household. The enlisted study, by Pradhan, Sundar and Singh (2006)1 also focuses on the impact of HIV and AIDS on affected households, which it finds to be seriously adverse, and, therefore, a matter of acute concern. At the same time, the study underplays the adverse economywide impact of AIDS. Given the current prevalence rate, the extrapolation of the household-level impact to the level of the state or the national economy does not reveal a large macro-economic impact. But, this is because the survey, on which the study is based, captures the snapshot of the economy at a given point of time, while the question of the macroeconomic impact of AIDS is essentially a dynamic one. As the HIV epidemic unfolds, its impacts are bound to be deeply compounded. These impacts cannot be assessed in their totality by a mere extrapolation of the household level impact. Furthermore, in 2005, the number of HIV-infected persons exceeds 5 million, and this number is expected to quintuple to between 20 million and 25 million by 2010. With that kind of a jump in the number of HIV cases in the next 5-10 years, there is bound to be a visible impact on the national economy. At present, little or nothing is known about the potential macro-economic impact of HIV and AIDS on the Indian economy. The rough-and-ready estimates of the macro-economic costs of AIDS that are available are of no help in guiding and accelerating the response of the Government of India to the potential threat to the economy imposed by this epidemic. A quantitative assessment of the macro-economic impact of AIDS on the Indian economy, therefore, needs to be undertaken urgently to assist the policy makers. Keeping this in mind, the study analyses the macro-economic and sectoral impacts of HIV and AIDS in India, using a fivesector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.HIV, AIDS, macroeconomic impact of AIDS, computable general equilibrium

Air versus water temperature of aquatic habitats in Delhi: Implications for transmission dynamics of Aedes aegypti

The present study was planned to characterize the microclimate experienced by Aedes larvae in different breeding habitats by determining the temperature variations in water kept in containers during different months under natural conditions. The study was conducted in three municipal zones of Delhi. In each site, four types of container material (plastic, cement, iron and ceramic) were chosen for recording the water temperature in the containers. Daily air and water temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum values) recorded by HOBO and Tidbit data loggers, respectively, were compared using analysis of variance and Tukey’s honest significant difference (HSD) tests. Mean monthly temperature of water varied from 16.9 to 33.0 °C in tin containers, 17.3 to 35.6°C in plastic containers, 14.3 to 28.5°C in ceramic pots, 23.3 to 30.4°C in cemented underground tanks (UGT) and 15.8 to 35.1°C in cemented overhead tanks (OHTs). Corresponding values for the air temperature ranged from 17.7 to 36.1°C. The difference between temperature of water in the containers and air temperature was highest for ceramic pots. Daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures recorded by different data loggers differed significantly (P<0.05). When Tukey HSD test was applied for data analysis, the daily mean air temperature differed significantly from the water temperature in tin and ceramic pots as well as cemented OHTs. The temperature of water in the different breeding habitats investigated was lower than the air temperature. Moreover, actual air temperature as recorded by HOBO was higher than the temperature recorded by local weather stations. Considering the ongoing climate change, cemented UGT and earthen pots may be more productive breeding habitats for the Aedes mosquito in the near future, while plastic and cemented OHTs might no longer be suitable for Aedes breeding

Comparative efficacy of two poeciliid fish in indoor cement tanks against chikungunya vector Aedes aegypti in villages in Karnataka, India

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In 2006, severe outbreaks of <it>Aedes aegypti</it>-transmitted chikungunya occurred in villages in Karnataka, South India. We evaluated the effectiveness of combined information, education and communication (IEC) campaigns using two potential poeciliid larvivorous fish guppy (<it>Poecilia reticulata</it>) and mosquitofish (<it>Gambusia affinis</it>), in indoor cement tanks for <it>Aedes </it>larval control.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Trials were conducted in two villages (Domatmari and Srinivaspura) in Tumkur District from March to May 2006 for <it>Poecilia </it>and one village (Balmanda) in Kolar District from July to October 2006 for <it>Gambusia</it>. A survey on knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) on chikungunya was initially conducted and IEC campaigns were performed before and after fish release in Domatmari (IEC alone, followed by IEC + <it>Poecilia</it>) and Balmanda (IEC + <it>Gambusia</it>). In Srinivaspura, IEC was not conducted. Larval surveys were conducted at the baseline followed by one-week and one-month post-intervention periods. The impact of fish on <it>Aedes </it>larvae and disease was assessed based on baseline and post-intervention observations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Only 18% of respondents knew of the role of mosquitoes in fever outbreaks, while almost all (<it>n </it>= 50 each) gained new knowledge from the IEC campaigns. In Domatmari, IEC alone was not effective (OR 0.54; <it>p </it>= 0.067). Indoor cement tanks were the most preferred <it>Ae. aegypti </it>breeding habitat (86.9%), and had a significant impact on <it>Aedes </it>breeding (Breteau Index) in all villages in the one-week period (<it>p </it>< 0.001). In the one-month period, the impact was most sustained in Domatmari (OR 1.58, <it>p </it>< 0.001) then Srinivaspura (OR 0.45, <it>p </it>= 0.063) and Balmanda (OR 0.51, <it>p </it>= 0.067). After fish introductions, chikungunya cases were reduced by 99.87% in Domatmari, 65.48% in Srinivaspura and 68.51% in Balmanda.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p><it>Poecilia </it>exhibited greater survival rates than <it>Gambusia </it>(86.04 <it>vs</it>.16.03%) in cement tanks. Neither IEC nor <it>Poecilia </it>alone was effective against <it>Aedes </it>(<it>p </it>> 0.05). We conclude that <it>Poecilia </it>+ IEC is an effective intervention strategy. The operational cost was 0.50 (US$0.011, 1 US$= 47) per capita per application. Proper water storage practices, focused IEC with <it>Poecilia </it>introductions and vector sanitation involving the local administration and community, is suggested as the best strategy for <it>Aedes </it>control.</p

Rapid growth and high cloud-forming potential of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in a thermal power plant plume during COVID lockdown in India

The COVID lockdown presented an interesting opportunity to study the anthropogenic emissions from different sectors under relatively cleaner conditions in India. The complex interplays of power production, industry, and transport could be dissected due to the significantly reduced influence of the latter two emission sources. Here, based on measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity and chemical composition of atmospheric aerosols during the lockdown, we report an episodic event resulting from distinct meteorological conditions. This event was marked by rapid growth and high hygroscopicity of new aerosol particles formed in the SO2 plume from a large coal-fired power plant in Southern India. These sulfate-rich particles had high CCN activity and number concentration, indicating high cloud-forming potential. Examining the sensitivity of CCN properties under relatively clean conditions provides important new clues to delineate the contributions of different anthropogenic emission sectors and further to understand their perturbations of past and future climate forcing

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

This online publication has been corrected. The corrected version first appeared at thelancet.com on September 28, 2023BACKGROUND : Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. METHODS : Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. FINDINGS : In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8–6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7–9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5–13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world’s highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1–79·5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1–96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9–95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5–71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5–30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22–1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1–17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8–11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. INTERPRETATION : Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.http://www.thelancet.comam2024School of Health Systems and Public Health (SHSPH)SDG-03:Good heatlh and well-bein

A CGE approach

Non-PRIFPRI5SA

A CGE analysis of India

PRIFPRI3; ISIND

Carbon emissions reduction strategies and poverty alleviation in India

This paper, based on a computable general equilibrium model of the Indian economy, shows that a domestic carbon tax policy that recycles carbon tax revenues to households imposes heavy costs in terms of lower economic growth and higher poverty. However, the decline in economic growth and rise in poverty can be minimized if the emissions restriction target is modest, and carbon tax revenues are transferred exclusively to the poor. India's participation in an internationally tradable emission permits regime with grandfathered emissions allocation is preferable to any domestic carbon tax option, provided the world market price of emission permits remains low. Even better would be if India participated in a global system of tradable emission permits with equal per capita emission entitlements. India would then be able to use the revenues garnered from the sale of surplus permits to speed up its economic growth and poverty reduction and yet keep its per capita emissions below the 1990 per capita global emissions level.

Effect of Wet Processing Parameters and Type of Weave on the Shrinkage of Polyester/Viscose Blend Fabrics

42-47<span style="font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%; font-family:" calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:="" "times="" new="" roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:="" minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"times="" roman";mso-ansi-language:en-us;="" mso-fareast-language:en-us;mso-bidi-language:ar-sa"="">The dependence of fibre shrinkage on wet processing parameters, viz. dry setting temperature, pH of the bath conditions of hot water treatment and repeated wetting-drying treatments, has been studied in the case of three common polyester/viscose blend (15/85, 30/70 and 48/52) compositions adopting different weaves—plain twill hopsack and satin. Blends with higher viscose contents showed greater combined swelling and relaxation shrinkages on treatment with distilled water and alkaline solutions. On the other hand blends with higher polyester contents exhibited greater combined relaxation and swelling shrinkages on being subjected to dry heat. Weaves with longer floats and fewer interlacements showed greater shrinkage compared to other weaves.</span