A Probabilistic Perspective on Gaussian Filtering and Smoothing

We present a general probabilistic perspective on Gaussian filtering and smoothing. This allows us to show that common approaches to Gaussian filtering/smoothing can be distinguished solely by their methods of computing/approximating the means and covariances of joint probabilities. This implies that novel filters and smoothers can be derived straightforwardly by providing methods for computing these moments. Based on this insight, we derive the cubature Kalman smoother and propose a novel robust filtering and smoothing algorithm based on Gibbs sampling

Neutrino oscillations and mixings with three flavors

Global fits to all data of candidates for neutrino oscillations are presented in the framework of a three-flavor model. The analysis excludes mass regions where the MSW effect is important for the solar neutrino problem. The best fit gives $\theta_1 \approx 28.9^\circ, \theta_2 \approx 4.2^\circ, \theta_3 - m_2^2 \approx 1.11 eV^2$ indicating essentially maximal mixing between the two lightest neutrino mass eigenstates

Compensatory Inter Vivos Gifts

This discussion paper led to a publication in href=http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jae.1071/full>Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24(6), 993-1023.Parents’ transfer motives are important for understanding, e.g., macroeconomics, income (re)distribution, savings, and public finance. Using data from six biennial waves of the Health and Retirement Study 1992–2002, we estimate grouped tobit-type latent variable models with multi-level error components. First, we find that inter vivos transfers from parents to children are gifts, and not temporary help to overcome liquidity constraints. Second, inter vivos gifts are compensatory in the sense that life-time poorer children will receive higher transfers than their life-time richer siblings. Third, inter vivos gifts do not, however, make up the entire difference in life-time incomes

Who is at the Top? Wealth Mobility over the Life Cycle

Who is wealthy? This paper presents empirical estimates of household movements into and out of the top percents of the wealth distribution over individual life cycles. There are life-cycle motives and precautionary motives for wealth accumulation. The opportunities to accumulate wealth create incentives for education, work effort, and entrepreneurship. We would expect considerable wealth mobility over the life cycle if the life-cycle motives and incentives to accumulate are strong and affect behavior. The data are from an administrative Swedish source that retains wealth information from tax registers. The data are unique, they follow a large sample of households over almost 40 years. There is substantial mobility when we follow individual households over long enough time spans. We find that wealth mobility increased until the end of the 1980s and then started to decrease. Age-wealth probability profiles are consistent with life-cycle motives for wealth accumulation. There are also limited precautionary motives for wealth accumulation when households experience income uncertainty

Decuplet Baryon Magnetic Moments in the Chiral Quark Model

We present calculations of the decuplet baryon magnetic moments in the chiral quark model. As input we use parameters obtained in qualitatively accurate fits to the octet baryon magnetic moments studied previously. The values found for the magnetic moments of $\Delta^{++}$ and $\Omega^{-}$ are in good agreement with experiments. We finally calculate the total quark spin polarizations of the decuplet baryons and find that they are considerably smaller than what is expected from the non-relativistic quark model

The effects of matter density uncertainties on neutrino oscillations in the Earth

We compare three different methods to evaluate uncertainties in the Earth's matter density profile, which are relevant to long baseline experiments, such as neutrino factories.Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure. Talk given at the NuFact'02 Workshop, London, 1-6 July, 200

Antibiotics with Interleukin-15 inhibition reduces joint inflammation and bone erosions but not cartilage destruction in Staphylococcus aureus-induced arthritis

Background: Staphylococcus aureus-induced arthritis causes rapid joint destruction, often leading to disabling joint damage despite antibiotics. We have previously shown that IL-15 inhibition without antibiotics is beneficial in S. aureus-induced arthritis. We therefore hypothesized that inhibition of IL-15, in combination with antibiotics, might represent a useful therapy that would both reduce inflammation and joint destruction, but preserve the host's ability to clear the infection. Methods: Female wildtype C57BL/6 mice were intravenously inoculated with the TSST-1-producing LS-1 strain of S. aureus with 0.8x108 S. aureus LS-1/mouse. Three days later the treatment was started consisting of cloxacillin followed by flucloxacillin, together with either anti-IL-15 antibodies (aIL-15ab) or control antibodies. Outcomes included survival, weight change, bacterial clearance, and joint damage. Results: The addition of aIL-15ab to antibiotics in S. aureus-induced arthritis reduced synovitis and bone erosions compared to controls. The number of bone-resorbing osteoclasts in the joints was reduced, whereas cartilage destruction was not significantly altered. Importantly, the combination therapy did not adversely affect the clinical outcome of S. aureus-induced arthritis, such as survival, weight change or compromise the host's ability to clear the infection. Conclusions: As the clinical outcome of S. aureus-induced arthritis was not affected, the addition of aIL-15ab to antibiotics ought to be safe. Taken together, the combination of aIL-15ab and antibiotics is a beneficial, but not optimal, treatment of S. aureus-induced arthritis as it reduces synovitis and bone erosions but has a limited effect on cartilage destruction

(2,0) theory on circle fibrations

We consider (2,0) theory on a manifold M_6 that is a fibration of a spatial S^1 over some five-dimensional base manifold M_5. Initially, we study the free (2,0) tensor multiplet which can be described in terms of classical equations of motion in six dimensions. Given a metric on M_6 the low energy effective theory obtained through dimensional reduction on the circle is a Maxwell theory on M_5. The parameters describing the local geometry of the fibration are interpreted respectively as the metric on M_5, a non-dynamical U(1) gauge field and the coupling strength of the resulting low energy Maxwell theory. We derive the general form of the action of the Maxwell theory by integrating the reduced equations of motion, and consider the symmetries of this theory originating from the superconformal symmetry in six dimensions. Subsequently, we consider a non-abelian generalization of the Maxwell theory on M_5. Completing the theory with Yukawa and phi^4 terms, and suitably modifying the supersymmetry transformations, we obtain a supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory which includes terms related to the geometry of the fibration.Comment: 24 pages, v2 References added, typos correcte