Comparing human and model-based forecasts of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland

Forecasts based on epidemiological modelling have played an important role in shaping public policy throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. This modelling combines knowledge about infectious disease dynamics with the subjective opinion of the researcher who develops and refines the model and often also adjusts model outputs. Developing a forecast model is difficult, resource- and time-consuming. It is therefore worth asking what modelling is able to add beyond the subjective opinion of the researcher alone. To investigate this, we analysed different real-time forecasts of cases of and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland over a 1-4 week horizon submitted to the German and Polish Forecast Hub. We compared crowd forecasts elicited from researchers and volunteers, against a) forecasts from two semi-mechanistic models based on common epidemiological assumptions and b) the ensemble of all other models submitted to the Forecast Hub. We found crowd forecasts, despite being overconfident, to outperform all other methods across all forecast horizons when forecasting cases (weighted interval score relative to the Hub ensemble 2 weeks ahead: 0.89). Forecasts based on computational models performed comparably better when predicting deaths (rel. WIS 1.26), suggesting that epidemiological modelling and human judgement can complement each other in important ways

Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic

As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis – for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April)

Comparing human and model-based forecasts of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland.

Forecasts based on epidemiological modelling have played an important role in shaping public policy throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. This modelling combines knowledge about infectious disease dynamics with the subjective opinion of the researcher who develops and refines the model and often also adjusts model outputs. Developing a forecast model is difficult, resource- and time-consuming. It is therefore worth asking what modelling is able to add beyond the subjective opinion of the researcher alone. To investigate this, we analysed different real-time forecasts of cases of and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland over a 1-4 week horizon submitted to the German and Polish Forecast Hub. We compared crowd forecasts elicited from researchers and volunteers, against a) forecasts from two semi-mechanistic models based on common epidemiological assumptions and b) the ensemble of all other models submitted to the Forecast Hub. We found crowd forecasts, despite being overconfident, to outperform all other methods across all forecast horizons when forecasting cases (weighted interval score relative to the Hub ensemble 2 weeks ahead: 0.89). Forecasts based on computational models performed comparably better when predicting deaths (rel. WIS 1.26), suggesting that epidemiological modelling and human judgement can complement each other in important ways

Change in Sediment Features and the Macroinvertebrate Community Within an Estuarine Ecosystem Two Years Post‐restoration

Our objective was to assess the response of an estuarine ecosystem to restoration efforts, two years post‐restoration. Sediment attributes of particle size distribution (PSD), %LOI, water content and amounts of fine wood debris (FWD), and the macroinvertebrate community were compared among three sites, two reference and the recently restored site. The restored region had been previously used as a log sorting facility. As indicated by PSD, the restored site showed signs of recovery. However, the macroinvertebrate community had still not responded to restoration efforts. Sediments of reference sites were comprised of fine sand, and the macroinvertebrate community was dominated by Macoma spp. By contrast, at the restored site, sediments were mainly comprised of silt followed by fine sand, Macoma spp. was absent, and the main macroinvertebrate was Glycera americana, a polychaeta characteristic of disturbed regions. The restored site still contained significance amounts of FWD as compared to the two reference sites attributed to its previous use. Although still early in its recovery stage, active restoration did have a positive effect and will have likely kick started the region toward recovery and further follow‐up in five years is recommended

The Rabi Yehuda Halevy: The physical and conceptual space of a Sephardic synagogue in Mexico City

This thesis analyzes Rabi Yehuda Halevy synagogue, which Victor Babani designed and Francisco Canovas built from 1941 to 1942 in the Colonia Roma Sur of Mexico City. I focus on its formal characteristics, as well as its socio-historical context. I examine late-nineteenth century to mid-twentieth century life for Sephardic Jews in Mexico: their cause for immigration, experience in their new homeland, and relations with other Jewish groups and non-Jews in the city. I explore the use of style and iconography in the synagogue in relation to the history and prior employment of these architectural features. Defining "style" in the Rabi Yehuda Halevy demands an understanding of the employment of a particular formal language in the design of minority groups' architecture. The process of finding a style to portray national identity in Mexico was parallel to the Mexican Sephardim's use of architecture to articulate their own identity in the city.Thesis (M.A.)--The University of Arizona, 2007.School code: 0009

"If the heart be moved": the triumph of the heart in Milton, Herbert, and Donne

John Milton, George Herbert, and John Donne all struggle to hold onto the heart as the center of man and the place of inspiration and volition. In the seventeenth century, four intertwined challenges to how people think about the heart collide. In anatomy, Harvey's treatise On the Motion of the Heart and the Blood (1628) persuaded many people to think of the heart as a mere pump rather than a mysterious seat of knowledge and volition. Milton, Herbert, and Donne respond to this controversial shift and work to realign the heart with the mystical presence of God. In philosophy, Descartes's theory of dualism changed how people thought of the connection between the heart and the mind. Milton confronts Descartes's dualistic theories by upholding monism in his epic Paradise Lost and portraying his archfiend, Satan, as a dualistic philosopher. In economics, anxieties concerning the mass-production of books complicated the Judeo-Christian belief that God writes on individual hearts in a personal, non-manufactured way. Herbert chooses to avoid mass-producing his works during his life due to his fear that "copying out" the writing in his heart would be diluted through the printing process. Milton, however, chooses to use the vehicle of print to advance his belief that the most lasting monuments are inscriptions written by God in hearts. In theology, the impassioned controversy about the interiority versus outward signs of belief that erupted in the sixteenth century continues to be debated in the seventeenth century and affects how these theological poets conceptualize the heart. Herbert and Donne characterize the heart as an intimate sphere that God must personally break and appropriate, whereas Milton demonstrates in "The Passion" that the crucifixion of Christ is a distinct and revered topic that cannot be expressed on physical paper but must be completed by the Spirit of God inside each believer's fleshy heart. This project shows how Milton, Herbert, and Donne reinforce the presence of God working and writing in believers' hearts when the very nature and understanding of the heart is evolving and moving away from any connection with the divine. (Published By University of Alabama Libraries

The experiences of student female mentees and staff and faculty mentors in a fledgling community college mentor program: a qualitative case study

This is an intrinsic qualitative case study dissertation that examined the experiences of mentees and mentors in a new mentoring program for female students at a two-year public commuter college in the Southeast. The methodologies of interviews, observations, and document analysis are used to chronicle what mentees and mentors experienced as participants in this mentoring program. Mattering and marginality theory is the theoretical framework used to understand and relate the experiences of students and mentors in this new mentoring program. The additional theories of self-efficacy, career decision-making, and motivation were used to explain student challenges and outcomes from the mentoring experience. The philosophical worldview of realistic-constructivism guided the design and implementation of the study. With retention of major concern to all institutions, but especially public, two-year colleges, coupled with the recent shift to performance funding, finding low-cost interventions to help students persist is crucial to both student success and the health of higher education institutions. This dissertation sought to reveal and understand the experiences of female mentees and mentors in this new mentoring program, as well as to expand the literature on mentoring programs and mattering and marginality theory. Results revealed the need these students had for information, guidance, connection, and encouragement. Interviews with the participants highlighted the great importance of students feeling like they matter to someone at the institution and the power of encouragement on persistence. They also showed the damage that can be done when mentors are not sincere in taking on the mentoring role. Of interest was how much mentoring meant to the mentees and how mattering theory applied to the experiences of the mentors, as well as the mentees. Motivational, self-efficacy, and career decision-making theories were also applicable in reviewing what the mentees needed, received, and how they benefited. The findings of this study have assisted in the evaluation and planning of the mentor program under study and may be of assistance to other institutions wishing to start or improve upon similar programs. It expands further what we know about mattering and the effects of mentoring on student success and retention. It questions how to best structure mentoring programs for particular institutions and student populations. It is clear that much research is still needed, both qualitative and quantitative, to better understand what takes place in mentoring experiences. Key words: career-decision making self-efficacy, case study, community college, self-efficacy, mattering, mentor, mentoring, mentee, motivation, retention (Published By University of Alabama Libraries