Impact of memory and bias in kinetic exchange opinion models on random networks

In this work we consider the effects of memory and bias in kinetic exchange opinion models. We propose a model in which agents remember the sign of their last interaction with each one of their pairs. This introduces memory effects in the model, since past interactions can affect future ones. We have also considered the impact of a parameter $p$ that regulates how often an agent changes its interaction to match its opinion, thus introducing bias in the interactions. For high values of $p$ an agent is more likely to start having a negative interaction with an agent of opposing opinion and a positive interaction with an agent of the same opinion. The model is defined on the top of random networks with mean connectivity $\langle k \rangle$. We analyze the impact of both $p$ and $\langle k \rangle$ on the emergence of ordered and disordered states in the population. Our results suggest a rich phenomenology regarding critical phenomena, with the presence of metastable states and a non-monotonic behavior of the order parameter. We show that the fraction of neutral agents in the disordered state decreases as the bias $p$ increases

Phase transition in the Galam's majority-rule model with information-mediated independence

We study the Galam's majority-rule model in the presence of an independent behavior that can be driven intrinsically or can be mediated by information regarding the collective opinion of the whole population. We first apply the mean-field approach where we obtained an explicit time-dependent solution for the order parameter of the model. We complement our results with Monte Carlo simulations where our findings indicate that independent opinion leads to order-disorder continuous nonequilibrium phase transitions. Finite-size scaling analysis show that the model belongs to the mean-field Ising model universality class. Moreover, results from an approach with the Kramers-Moyal coefficients provide insights about the social volatility.Comment: Invited paper for the special issue "In honor of professor Serge Galam for his 70th birthday and forty years of sociophysics" (special issue editors: A. Martins, T. Cheon, X.Tang, B. Chopard, S. Biswas), to appear in Physic

Persistence and clearance of Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid of Ebola virus disease survivors: a longitudinal analysis and modelling study

Background By January, 2016, all known transmission chains of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in west Africa had been stopped. However, there is concern about persistence of Ebola virus in the reproductive tract of men who have survived EVD. We aimed to use biostatistical modelling to describe the dynamics of Ebola virus RNA load in seminal fl uid, including clearance parameters. Methods In this longitudinal study, we recruited men who had been discharged from three Ebola treatment units in Guinea between January and July, 2015. Participants provided samples of seminal fl uid at follow-up every 3–6 weeks, which we tested for Ebola virus RNA using quantitative real-time RT-PCR. Representative specimens from eight participants were then inoculated into immunodefi cient mice to test for infectivity. We used a linear mixed-eff ect model to analyse the dynamics of virus persistence in seminal fl uid over time. Findings We enrolled 26 participants and tested 130 seminal fl uid specimens; median follow up was 197 days (IQR 187–209 days) after enrolment, which corresponded to 255 days (228–287) after disease onset. Ebola virus RNA was detected in 86 semen specimens from 19 (73%) participants. Median duration of Ebola virus RNA detection was 158 days after onset (73–181; maximum 407 days at end of follow-up). Mathematical modelling of the quantitative time-series data showed a mean clearance rate of Ebola virus RNA from seminal fl uid of –0·58 log units per month, although the clearance kinetic varied greatly between participants. Using our biostatistical model, we predict that 50% and 90% of male survivors clear Ebola virus RNA from seminal fl uid at 115 days (90% prediction interval 72–160) and 294 days (212–399) after disease onset, respectively. We also predicted that the number of men positive for Ebola virus RNA in aff ected countries would decrease from about 50 in January 2016, to fewer than 1 person by July, 2016. Infectious virus was detected in 15 of 26 (58%) specimens tested in mice. Interpretation Time to clearance of Ebola virus RNA from seminal fl uid varies greatly between individuals and could be more than 13 months. Our predictions will assist in decision-making about surveillance and preventive measures in EVD outbreaks

Non-neutralizing antibodies elicited by recombinant Lassa-Rabies vaccine are critical for protection against Lassa fever

Lassa fever (LF), caused by Lassa virus (LASV), is a viral hemorrhagic fever for which no approved vaccine or potent antiviral treatment is available. LF is a WHO priority disease and, together with rabies, a major health burden in West Africa. Here we present the development and characterization of an inactivated recombinant LASV and rabies vaccine candidate (LASSARAB) that expresses a codon-optimized LASV glycoprotein (coGPC) and is adjuvanted by a TLR-4 agonist (GLA-SE). LASSARAB elicits lasting humoral response against LASV and RABV in both mouse and guinea pig models, and it protects both guinea pigs and mice against LF. We also demonstrate a previously unexplored role for non-neutralizing LASV GPC-specific antibodies as a major mechanism of protection by LASSARAB against LF through antibody-dependent cellular functions. Overall, these findings demonstrate an effective inactivated LF vaccine and elucidate a novel humoral correlate of protection for LF.NIH grants R01 AI105204 to M.J.S., by the Jefferson Vaccine Center, and by the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) scholarship PD/BD/105847/2014 (to T.A.-M.). This work was also funded in part through the NIAID Division of Intramural Research and the NIAID Division of Clinical Research, Battelle Memorial Institute’s prime contract with the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) under Contract No. HHSN272200700016Iinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Persistence and clearance of Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid of Ebola virus disease survivors: a longitudinal analysis and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: By January, 2016, all known transmission chains of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in west Africa had been stopped. However, there is concern about persistence of Ebola virus in the reproductive tract of men who have survived EVD. We aimed to use biostatistical modelling to describe the dynamics of Ebola virus RNA load in seminal fluid, including clearance parameters. METHODS: In this longitudinal study, we recruited men who had been discharged from three Ebola treatment units in Guinea between January and July, 2015. Participants provided samples of seminal fluid at follow-up every 3-6 weeks, which we tested for Ebola virus RNA using quantitative real-time RT-PCR. Representative specimens from eight participants were then inoculated into immunodeficient mice to test for infectivity. We used a linear mixed-effect model to analyse the dynamics of virus persistence in seminal fluid over time. FINDINGS: We enrolled 26 participants and tested 130 seminal fluid specimens; median follow up was 197 days (IQR 187-209 days) after enrolment, which corresponded to 255 days (228-287) after disease onset. Ebola virus RNA was detected in 86 semen specimens from 19 (73%) participants. Median duration of Ebola virus RNA detection was 158 days after onset (73-181; maximum 407 days at end of follow-up). Mathematical modelling of the quantitative time-series data showed a mean clearance rate of Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid of -0·58 log units per month, although the clearance kinetic varied greatly between participants. Using our biostatistical model, we predict that 50% and 90% of male survivors clear Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid at 115 days (90% prediction interval 72-160) and 294 days (212-399) after disease onset, respectively. We also predicted that the number of men positive for Ebola virus RNA in affected countries would decrease from about 50 in January 2016, to fewer than 1 person by July, 2016. Infectious virus was detected in 15 of 26 (58%) specimens tested in mice. INTERPRETATION: Time to clearance of Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid varies greatly between individuals and could be more than 13 months. Our predictions will assist in decision-making about surveillance and preventive measures in EVD outbreaks. FUNDING: This study was funded by European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, Directorate-General for International Cooperation and Development of the European Commission, Institut national de la santé et de la recherche médicale (INSERM), German Research Foundation (DFG), and Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking

Antiviral therapies against Ebola and other emerging viral diseases using existing medicines that block virus entry

Emerging viral diseases pose a threat to the global population as intervention strategies are mainly limited to basic containment due to the lack of efficacious and approved vaccines and antiviral drugs. The former was the only available intervention when the current unprecedented Ebolavirus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa began. Prior to this, the development of EBOV vaccines and anti-viral therapies required time and resources that were not available. Therefore, focus has turned to re-purposing of existing, licenced medicines that may limit the morbidity and mortality rates of EBOV and could be used immediately. Here we test three such medicines and measure their ability to inhibit pseudotype viruses (PVs) of two EBOV species, Marburg virus (MARV) and avian influenza H5 (FLU-H5). We confirm the ability of chloroquine (CQ) to inhibit viral entry in a pH specific manner. The commonly used proton pump inhibitors, Omeprazole and Esomeprazole were also able to inhibit entry of all PVs tested but at higher drug concentrations than may be achieved in vivo. We propose CQ as a priority candidate to consider for treatment of EBOV