What future for the Global Aid for Trade Initiative? Towards an assessment of its achievements and limitations

As with any form of contemporary global governance, the impact of the global Aid for Trade Initiative (2006) has been mixed. However, to dismiss it as a failure would be premature. The co-ordination system established was based on best-practice techniques of governance in a diverse non-hierarchical environment, such as the international development community. This form of co-operation cannot overcome global economic and political asymmetries, but it can be effective in several respects. In particular, the Initiative led to increased funding for AfT and kick-started a range of initiatives and technical advances; while the monitoring process has evolved significantly to give voice to new actors and issues. Although the future of the AfT Initiative is uncertain, its achievements merit careful consideration

Is Aid for Trade Effective? A Panel Quantile Regression Approach

This paper investigates whether Aid for Trade (AfT) leads to greater exports in recipient countries. Using panel data and panel quantile regression techniques, our results suggest that total AfT disbursements promote the export of goods and services, but is limited primarily to exporters above the .35 quantile of the conditional distribution of exports. When disaggregating by type of AfT, we find that aid to improve trade policy and regulation is not associated with higher exports. Aid to build productive capacity is effective for almost all quantiles of the export distribution but the 10th, with the effect being stronger at the higher tails of the conditional distribution. Aid used to build infrastructure is found to affect exports only at the 0.10 quantile. In contrast, aid disbursed for general budget support (an untargeted type of aid) is not associated with greater export levels irrespective of the quantile

RTAs and South Asia: options in the wake of Cancun fiasco

The purpose of this paper, therefore, is to systematically address the situation in general and with emphasis on South Asia if the failed trade talks at Cancun throw weight behind the formation of more and more bilateral and regional trade treaties. Should they make a renewed effort to kick-start SAPTA? Should they look eastward and try to cooperate more with ASEAN and other East Asian economies? Should they further deepen trading relations with their traditional partners the EU and US? This paper contains six sections (including introduction). Section II provides a quick recap of the series of events, which resulted in Cancun debacle. Section III takes into account the proliferation of RTAs over the last two decades, change in US approach towards regionalism, further deepening and widening of EU and formation of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation. Section IV in very brief follows the development since the Cancun collapse, the US efforts to follow bilateral path in FTAA negotiations and Indias Look East policy. Section V analyses the reasons behind low intra-regional trade. Section VI makes a comparison of intra-SAARC trade with other Southern RTAs, Finally the paper ends with looking into the possible options for South Asia in the post-Cancun scenario

Imperfect Competition, State Trading and Japan's Imports of Rice

In the negotiations on agriculture in the World Trade Organization, it was asserted that an importing state trading enterprise affects the domestic market but not the international market. This claim is investigated through specifying a model of intermediaries in international trade. There are two kinds of intermediaries: first, a state trading enterprise; and second, an n-firm Cournot oligopsony/oligopoly that acts as the counterfactual. Using Japanese market price and quantity data for rice, and elasticity parameters drawn from the literature, the equations of the model are calibrated to these data and parameters. The resulting equations then permit the calculation of the tariff equivalence of the state trading enterprise under different assumptions about market structure, as well as the welfare effects associated with them. The equations are re-specified to model the existing import regime for rice, which is a tariff quota. The conclusions are: first, that, compared with the counterfactual, an importing state trading enterprise acts like a tariff by restricting imports; and second, the current import regime of a tariff quota causes a welfare loss compared with the counterfactual

On export rivalry and the greening of agriculture?the role of eco-labels

Abstract: Why do some countries establish their own national eco-labeling programs and others do not? In this paper, we provide theoretical arguments and empirical evidence sug-gesting that the answer to this question can shed new light on three questions that have taken center-stage in the trade and environment debate: (i) does trade exacerbate the exploitation of the environment; (ii) are countries competing in export markets engaged in a race to the bottom in environmental performance; and (iii) do market-based environmental instruments benefit the rich and hurt the poor

Is Aid for Trade Effective? A Quantile Regression Approach

This paper investigates whether Aid for Trade (AfT) improves export performance, i.e. does AfT lead to greater exports? Using panel data and panel quantile regression, our results suggest that overall AfT disbursements promote the export of goods and services mainly for the .50 and .75 quantiles. Our results also show that for some types of AfT this effect essentially vanishes at the lower tail of the conditional distribution of exports. Hence, countries that export more in volume are those benefiting most from AfT. We also investigate which types of AfT are effective. In particular, we find that aid used to build production capacity is effective. This type of aid is associated with higher exports for almost all quantiles, with the effect increasing at the upper tail of the conditional distribution. Aid used to build infrastructure is also found to affect exports at the upper tail of the distribution. In contrast, aid for trade policy and aid disbursed for general budget support (an untargeted type of aid) are not associated with greater export levels. This finding holds true irrespective of the quantile

Outsourcing Governance: States and the Politics of a ‘Global Value Chain World’

Politics, and by extension states, are marginal in debates about the genesis, evolution and functioning of the GVC-based global economy. We contend here that the core complexity of state agency and state power needs to be much more carefully understood in GVC and related debates, as a basis on which the governance of the evolving GVC world can be properly theorised as revolving around the inseparability of economic and political power. We advance a framework for understanding the role of politics and states in the construction and maintenance of a GVC world, using a three-fold typology of facilitative, regulatory and distributive forms of governance, and propose a notion of ‘outsourcing governance’ as an attempt to capture the ways in which states purposefully, through active political agency, have engaged in a process of delegating a variety of governance functions and authority to private actors. Our overarching argument is normative: ‘outsourced governance’ of the form we currently observe is associated with regressive distributional outcomes, and is antithetical to an inclusive and sustainable global economy

Modelling of regulatory factor and managerial impact assessment in the regional economy sectors: a case-study of the Kaliningrad region (Russia)

This article discusses the methodology of developing tools for assessing regulatory factors and managerial impacts on the regional economy and individual sectors and businesses. The potential of projection models is investigated, including balance models, convergence of regional and sectoral projection and compiling reliable and representative data sets capable of describing the current economic situation. An attempt was made to develop a series of models for several regional economies; to that end, the modelling of managerial and regulatory impact assessment was used in combination with the well-known value chain approach. In the interests of effective public administration, one of the requirements is to create sectoral model formats compatible with the regional projection models. Results of pilot modelling managerial and regulatory impacts on Kaliningrad region’s economies are presented through examples of agribusiness, transport, industry, tourism and recreation. Implementation of regulatory impact modelling in the framework of the suggested approach is proved for other regions. The main advantage of the developed models for the regional management is their ability to reduce uncertainty in decision-making due to obtaining estimates of the impact of the decisions on the changing situation and the conditions for the development of sectors and industries