Increasing turnover through time in tropical forests

Tree turnover rates were assessed at 40 tropical forest sites. Averaged across inventoried forests, turnover, as measured by tree mortality and recruitment, has increased since the 1950's, with an apparent pantropical acceleration since 1980. Among 22 mature forest sites with two or more inventory periods, forest turnover also increased. The trend in forest dynamics may have profound effects on biological diversity

Tropical forests and global atmospheric change: a synthesis

We present a personal perspective on the highlights of the Theme Issue 'Tropical forests and global atmospheric change'. We highlight the key findings on the contemporary rate of climatic change in the tropics, the evidence--gained from field studies--of large-scale and rapid change in the dynamics and biomass of old-growth forests, and evidence of how climate change and fragmentation can interact to increase the vulnerability of plants and animals to fires. A range of opinions exists concerning the possible cause of these observed changes, but examination of the spatial 'fingerprint' of observed change may help to identify the driving mechanism(s). Studies of changes in tropical forest regions since the last glacial maximum show the sensitivity of species composition and ecology to atmospheric changes. Model studies of change in forest vegetation highlight the potential importance of temperature or drought thresholds that could lead to substantial forest decline in the near future. During the coming century, the Earth's remaining tropical forests face the combined pressures of direct human impacts and a climatic and atmospheric situation not experienced for at least 20 million years. Understanding and monitoring of their response to this atmospheric change are essential if we are to maximize their conservation options

A scenario aggregation based approach for determining a robust airline fleet composition

Strategic airline fleet planning is one of the major issues addressed through newly initiated decision support systems, designed to assist airlines and aircraft manufacturers in assessing the benefits of the emerging concept of dynamic capacity allocation. We present background research connected with such a system, which aims to explicitly account for the stochastic nature of passenger demand in supporting decisions related to the fleet composition problem. We address this problem through a scenario aggregation based approach and present results on representative case studies based on realistic data. Our investigations establish clear benefits of a stochastic approach as compared with deterministic formulations, as well as its implementation feasibility using state-of-the-artoptimization software.Dynamic capacity allocation;Airline fleet composition;Stochastic programming;Scenario aggregation;Fleet assignment

Opacity data for HCN and HNC from a new ab initio line list

A new extensive ab initio rotation-vibration HCN/HNC line list is presented. The line list contains rotation-vibration energy levels, line frequencies, and line strengths for transitions between states with energy less than 18,000 cm-1 and with J≤60. This line list greatly improves the quality and range of HCN/HNC data available. It is presently the most extensive and most accurate ab initio HCN/HNC line list in existence. It is hoped that this data set will be used in models of C star atmospheres and elsewhere

A quantitative analysis of demand for fish in Nigeria

The paper discusses the relevant theoretical considerations and specifies a model in an attempt to quantify those variables, the changes of which affect the internal demand for fish in Nigeria. Regression analyses carried out show that a generally rising trend in per capita income will increase the demand for fish, other things being equal. It is further revealed that even as the price of fish goes on increasing, consumers' demand for fish also tend to rise. The paper concludes by emphasizing the need for a fish consumption survey in the country's fish deman

Fingerprinting the impacts of global change on tropical forests

Recent observations of widespread changes in mature tropical forests such as increasing tree growth, recruitment and mortality rates and increasing above-ground biomass suggest that 'global change' agents may be causing predictable changes in tropical forests. However, consensus over both the robustness of these changes and the environmental drivers that may be causing them is yet to emerge. This paper focuses on the second part of this debate. We review (i) the evidence that the physical, chemical and biological environment that tropical trees grow in has been altered over recent decades across large areas of the tropics, and (ii) the theoretical, experimental and observational evidence regarding the most likely effects of each of these changes on tropical forests. Ten potential widespread drivers of environmental change were identified: temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, climatic extremes (including El Niño Southern Oscillation events), atmospheric CO2 concentrations, nutrient deposition, O3/acid depositions, hunting, land-use change and increasing liana numbers. We note that each of these environmental changes is expected to leave a unique 'fingerprint' in tropical forests, as drivers directly force different processes, have different distributions in space and time and may affect some forests more than others (e.g. depending on soil fertility). Thus, in the third part of the paper we present testable a priori predictions of forest responses to assist ecologists in attributing particular changes in forests to particular causes across multiple datasets. Finally, we discuss how these drivers may change in the future and the possible consequences for tropical forests

A statistical investigation of fish prices in Nigeria

The main objective of this study is to describe and characterize the behaviour of fish prices in Nigeria. Drawing upon aspects of the data from a nationwide fish survey in 1980/81 and on various secondary data, the study analyses the pattern of fish price movement and makes projections of fish prices in Nigeria till 2002 A.D. It is concluded that unless efforts are directed at stemming inflation in fish prices, prices paid by fish consumers in Nigeria will be more than doubled within the next two decade

A decomposition approach to a stochastic model for supply-and-return network design

This paper presents a generic stochastic model for the design of networks comprising both supply and return channels, organized in a closed loop system. Such situations are typical for manufacturing/re-manufacturing type of systems in reverse logistics. The model accounts for a number of alternative scenarios, which may be constructed based on critical levels of design parameters such as demand or returns. We propose a decomposition approach for this model based on the branch and cut procedure known as the integer L-shaped method. Computational results show a consistent performance efficiency of the method for the addressed location problem. The stochastic solutions obtained in a numerical setting generate a significant improvement in terms of average performance over the individual scenario solutions. A solution methodology as presented here can contribute to overcoming notorious challenges of stochastic network design models, such as increased problem sizes and computational difficulty.Decomposition;Location;Remanufacturing;Integer L-shaped;Uncertainty