An offer you cannot refuse: down-regulation of immunity in response to a pathogen's retaliation threat.

According to the Red Queen hypothesis, hosts and pathogens are engaged in an escalating coevolutionary arms race between resistance and virulence. However, the vast majority of symbionts colonize their hosts' mucosal compartments without triggering any immune response, resulting in durable commensal associations. Here, I propose a simple extension of previous mathematical models for antagonistic coevolution in which the host can mount a delayed immune response; in response, the symbiont can change its virulence following this activation. Even though the levels of virulence in both phases are assumed to be genetically determined, this simple form of plasticity can select for commensal associations. In particular, coevolution can result in hosts that do not activate their immune response, thus preventing phenotypically plastic pathogens from switching to a higher virulence level. I argue that, from the host's point of view, this state is analogous to the mafia behaviour previously described in avian brood parasites. More importantly, this study provides a new hypothesis for the maintenance of a commensal relationship through antagonistic coevolution

Nested sampling for Bayesian model comparison in the context of Salmonella disease dynamics.

Understanding the mechanisms underlying the observed dynamics of complex biological systems requires the statistical assessment and comparison of multiple alternative models. Although this has traditionally been done using maximum likelihood-based methods such as Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian methods have gained in popularity because they provide more informative output in the form of posterior probability distributions. However, comparison between multiple models in a Bayesian framework is made difficult by the computational cost of numerical integration over large parameter spaces. A new, efficient method for the computation of posterior probabilities has recently been proposed and applied to complex problems from the physical sciences. Here we demonstrate how nested sampling can be used for inference and model comparison in biological sciences. We present a reanalysis of data from experimental infection of mice with Salmonella enterica showing the distribution of bacteria in liver cells. In addition to confirming the main finding of the original analysis, which relied on AIC, our approach provides: (a) integration across the parameter space, (b) estimation of the posterior parameter distributions (with visualisations of parameter correlations), and (c) estimation of the posterior predictive distributions for goodness-of-fit assessments of the models. The goodness-of-fit results suggest that alternative mechanistic models and a relaxation of the quasi-stationary assumption should be considered.RD was funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) (grant number BB/I002189/1). TJM was funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) (grant number BB/I012192/1). OR was funded by the Royal Society. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Within-host spatiotemporal dynamics of systemic Salmonella infection during and after antimicrobial treatment

$\textbf{Objectives:}$ We determined the interactions between efficacy of antibiotic treatment, pathogen growth rates and between-organ spread during systemic $\textit{Salmonella}$ infections. $\textbf{Methods:}$ We infected mice with isogenic molecularly tagged subpopulations of either a fast-growing WT or a slow-growing $\Delta$$\textit{aroC Salmonella}$ strain. We monitored viable bacterial numbers and fluctuations in the proportions of each bacterial subpopulation in spleen, liver, blood and mesenteric lymph nodes (MLNs) before, during and after the cessation of treatment with ampicillin and ciprofloxacin. $\textbf{Results:}$ Both antimicrobials induced a reduction in viable bacterial numbers in the spleen, liver and blood. This reduction was biphasic in infections with fast-growing bacteria, with a rapid initial reduction followed by a phase of lower effect. Conversely, a slow and gradual reduction of the bacterial load was seen in infections with the slow-growing strain, indicating a positive correlation between bacterial net growth rates and the efficacy of ampicillin and ciprofloxacin. The viable numbers of either bacterial strain remained constant in MLNs throughout the treatment with a relapse of the infection with WT bacteria occurring after cessation of the treatment. The frequency of each tagged bacterial subpopulation was similar in the spleen and liver, but different from that of the MLNs before, during and after treatment. $\textbf{Conclusions:}$ In $\textit{Salmonella}$ infections, bacterial growth rates correlate with treatment efficacy. MLNs are a site with a bacterial population structure different to those of the spleen and liver and where the total viable bacterial load remains largely unaffected by antimicrobials, but can resume growth after cessation of treatment.This work was supported by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) grant number BB/M000982/1 (http://www.bbsrc.ac.uk/research/grants/grants/AwardDetails.aspx?FundingReference=BB/M000982/1). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Dual role of splenic mononuclear and polymorphonuclear cells in the outcome of ciprofloxacin treatment of Salmonella enterica infections.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the immune cell populations associated with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium before and after ciprofloxacin treatment using a murine model of systemic infection. The effect of depletion of immune cells associating with Salmonella on treatment outcome was also determined. METHODS: We infected mice with a Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium strain expressing GFP and used multicolour flow cytometry to identify splenic immune cell populations associating with GFP-positive Salmonella before and after treatment with ciprofloxacin. This was followed by depletion of different immune cell populations using antibodies and liposomes. RESULTS: Our results identified CD11b+CD11chi/lo (dendritic cells/macrophages) and Ly6G+CD11b+ (neutrophils) leucocytes as the main host cell populations that are associated with Salmonella after ciprofloxacin treatment. We therefore proceeded to test the effects of depletion of such populations during treatment. We show that depletion of Ly6G+CD11b+ populations resulted in an increase in the number of viable bacterial cells in the spleen at the end of ciprofloxacin treatment. Conversely, treatment with clodronate liposomes during antimicrobial treatment, which depleted the CD11b+CD11chi/lo populations, resulted in lower numbers of viable bacteria in the tissues. CONCLUSIONS: Our study identified host cells where Salmonella bacteria persist during ciprofloxacin treatment and revealed a dual and opposing effect of removal of Ly6G+CD11b+ and CD11b+CD11chi/lo host cells on the efficacy of antimicrobial treatment. This suggests a dichotomy in the role of these populations in clearance/persistence of Salmonella during antimicrobial treatment

Inferring within-host bottleneck size: A Bayesian approach.

Recent technical developments in microbiology have led to new discoveries on the within-host dynamics of bacterial infections in laboratory animals. In particular, they have highlighted the importance of stochastic bottlenecks at the onset of invasive disease. A number of approaches exist for bottleneck-size estimation with respect to within-host bacterial infections; however, some are more appropriate than others under certain circumstances. A Bayesian comparison of several approaches is made in terms of the availability of isogenic multitype bacteria (e.g., WITS), knowledge of post-bottleneck dynamics, and the suitability of dilution with monotype bacteria. A sampling approach to bottleneck-size estimation is also introduced. The results are summarised by a guiding flowchart, which we hope will promote the use of quantitative models in microbiology to refine the analysis of animal experiment data

Characteristics and Risk Perceptions of Ghanaians Potentially Exposed to Bat-Borne Zoonoses through Bushmeat.

Emerging zoonotic pathogens from wildlife pose increasing public health threats globally. Bats, in particular, host an array of zoonotic pathogens, yet there is little research on how bats and humans interact, how people perceive bats and their accompanying disease risk, or who is most at risk. Eidolon helvum, the largest and most abundant African fruit bat species, is widely hunted and eaten in Ghana and also carries potentially zoonotic pathogens. This combination raises concerns, as hunting and butchering bushmeat are common sources of zoonotic transmission. Through a combination of interviews with 577 Ghanaians across southern Ghana, we identified the characteristics of people involved in the bat-bushmeat trade and we explored their perceptions of risk. Bat hunting, selling and consumption are widely distributed across regional and ethnic lines, with hotspots in certain localities, while butchering is predominantly done by women and active hunters. Interviewees held little belief of disease risk from bats, saw no ecological value in fruit bats and associated the consumption of bats with specific tribes. These data can be used to inform disease and conservation management plans, drawing on social contexts and ensuring that local voices are heard within the larger global effort to study and mitigate outbreaks.This is the final version. It was first published by Springer in EcoHealth at http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10393-014-0977-0

What is stirring in the reservoir? Modelling mechanisms of henipavirus circulation in fruit bat hosts

Pathogen circulation among reservoir hosts is a precondition for zoonotic spillover. Unlike the acute, high morbidity infections typical in spillover hosts, infected reservoir hosts often exhibit low morbidity and mortality. Although it has been proposed that reservoir host infections may be persistent with recurrent episodes of shedding, direct evidence is often lacking. We construct a generalized SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) framework encompassing 46 sub-models representing the full range of possible transitions among those four states of infection and immunity. We then use likelihood-based methods to fit these models to nine years of longitudinal data on henipavirus serology from a captive colony of Eidolon helvum bats in Ghana. We find that reinfection is necessary to explain observed dynamics; that acute infectious periods may be very short (hours to days); that immunity, if present, lasts about 1–2 years; and that recurring latent infection is likely. Although quantitative inference is sensitive to assumptions about serology, qualitative predictions are robust. Our novel approach helps clarify mechanisms of viral persistence and circulation in wild bats, including estimated ranges for key parameters such as the basic reproduction number and the duration of the infectious period. Our results inform how future field-based and experimental work could differentiate the processes of viral recurrence and reinfection in reservoir hosts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover’

Domesticated animals as hosts of henipaviruses and filoviruses: A systematic review

Bat-borne viruses carry undeniable risks to the health of human beings and animals, and there is growing recognition of the need for a 'One Health' approach to understand their frequently complex spill-over routes. While domesticated animals can play central roles in major spill- over events of zoonotic bat-borne viruses, for example during the pig- amplified Malaysian Nipah virus outbreak of 1998-1999, the extent of their potential to act as bridging or amplifying species for these viruses has not been characterised systematically. This review aims to compile current knowledge on the role of domesticated animals as hosts of two types of bat-borne viruses, henipaviruses and filoviruses. A systematic literature search of these virus-host interactions in domesticated animals identified 72 relevant studies, which were categorised by year, location, design and type of evidence generated. The review then focusses on Africa as a case study, comparing research efforts in domesticated animals and bats with the distributions of documented human cases. Major gaps remain in our knowledge of the potential ability of domesticated animals to contract or spread these zoonoses. Closing these gaps will be necessary to fully evaluate and mitigate spill-over risks of these viruses, especially with global agricultural intensification

A framework for the study of zoonotic disease emergence and its drivers: spillover of bat pathogens as a case study

Many serious emerging zoonotic infections have recently arisen from bats, including Ebola, Marburg, SARS-coronavirus, Hendra, Nipah, and a number of rabies and rabies-related viruses, consistent with the overall observation that wildlife are an important source of emerging zoonoses for the human population. Mechanisms underlying the recognized association between ecosystem health and human health remain poorly understood and responding appropriately to the ecological, social and economic conditions that facilitate disease emergence and transmission represents a substantial societal challenge. In the context of disease emergence from wildlife, wildlife and habitat should be conserved, which in turn will preserve vital ecosystem structure and function, which has broader implications for human wellbeing and environmental sustainability, while simultaneously minimizing the spillover of pathogens from wild animals into human beings. In this review, we propose a novel framework for the holistic and interdisciplinary investigation of zoonotic disease emergence and its drivers, using the spillover of bat pathogens as a case study. This study has been developed to gain a detailed interdisciplinary understanding, and it combines cutting-edge perspectives from both natural and social sciences, linked to policy impacts on public health, land use and conservation

The Relationship of Within-Host Multiplication and Virulence in a Plant-Virus System

Background. Virulence does not represent any obvious advantage to parasites. Most models of virulence evolution assume that virulence is an unavoidable consequence of within-host multiplication of parasites, resulting in trade-offs between within-host multiplication and between-host transmission fitness components. Experimental support for the central assumption of this hypothesis, i.e., for a positive correlation between within-host multiplication rates and virulence, is limited for plant-parasite systems. Methodology/Principal Findings. We have addressed this issue in the system Arabidopsis thaliana-Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV). Virus multiplication and the effect of infection on plant growth and on viable seed production were quantified for 21 Arabidopsis wild genotypes infected by 3 CMV isolates. The effect of infection on plant growth and seed production depended of plant architecture and length of postembryonic life cycle, two genetically-determined traits, as well as on the time of infection in the plant's life cycle. A relationship between virus multiplication and virulence was not a general feature of this host-parasite system. This could be explained by tolerance mechanisms determined by the host genotype and operating differently on two components of plant fitness, biomass production and resource allocation to seeds. However, a positive relationship between virus multiplication and virulence was detected for some accessions with short life cycle and high seed weight to biomass ratio, which show lower levels of tolerance to infection. Conclusions/Significance. These results show that genotype-specific tolerance mechanisms may lead to the absence of a clear relationship between parasite multiplication and virulence. Furthermore, a positive correlation between parasite multiplication and virulence may occur only in some genotypes and/or environmental conditions for a given host-parasite system. Thus, our results challenge the general validity of the trade-off hypothesis for virulence evolution, and stress the need of considering the effect of both the host and parasite genotypes in analyses of host-parasite interactions. © 2007 Pagán et al.Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, Spain.Peer Reviewe