Regional differences in long-term cycles and seasonality of Puumala virus infections, Finland, 1995-2014

Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) causes haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in humans, an endemic disease in Finland. We aimed to study recent trends in PUUV infections in Finland, to evaluate whether there are regional differences in seasonality and long-term cycles and whether the patterns have changed over time. We analysed serologically confirmed acute PUUV infections reported to the National Infectious Disease Register from 1 April 1995 to 31 March 2014. A total of 30 942 cases of PUUV infections were identified during the study period. The average annual incidence was 31 cases/100 000 person-years with the highest in Eastern Finland and the lowest in Southwestern Finland. Throughout Finland there was not an increasing trend in incidence but changes in incidence, seasonality and long-term cycles differed regionally. Long-term cycles supported by high Bayesian posterior probabilities (73-100%) differed between the south and the north, shifting from 3 to 4 years, respectively. Temporal changes in seasonality were most prominent in Southwestern Finland. The pattern of human PUUV infection epidemiology probably primarily reflects the spatio-temporal interaction between bank-vole population dynamics and climate.Peer reviewe

Lyme Borreliosis in Finland, 1995-2014

We investigated the epidemiology of Lyme borreliosis (LB) in Finland for the period 1995-2014 by using data from 3 different healthcare registers. We reviewed data on disseminated LB cases from the National Infectious Diseases Register (21,051 cases) and the National Hospital Discharge Register (10,402 cases) and data on primary LB (erythema migrans) cases from the Register for Primary Health Care Visits (11,793 cases). Incidence of microbiologically confirmed disseminated LB cases increased from 7/100,000 population in 1995 to 31/100,000 in 2014. Incidence of primary LB cases increased from 44/100,000 in 2011 to 61/100,000 in 2014. Overall, cases occurred predominantly in women, and we observed a bimodal age distribution in all 3 registers. Our results clearly demonstrate that the geographic distribution of LB has expanded in Finland and underscore the importance of LB as an increasing public health concern in Finland and in northern Europe in general

Incidence and seroprevalence of tularaemia in Finland, 1995 to 2013 : regional epidemics with cyclic pattern

We studied the incidence of reported tularaemia by year and region and the prevalence of antibodies against Francisella tularensis in the adult general population in Finland. Moreover, we assessed the correlation between vole population cycles and human tularaemia outbreaks. The seroprevalence study made use of serum samples from a nationwide population-based health survey (Health 2000). The samples of 1,045 randomly selected persons, representative for the Finnish population in each region, were screened with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for the presence of IgG antibodies against F. tularensis, and positive results were further confirmed by immunoblotting. A serological response to F. tularensis was found in 2% (95% confidence interval: 1.1-3.5) of the population. Incidence and seroprevalence were highest in the same areas, and vole population peaks clearly preceded tularaemia outbreaks one year later.Peer reviewe

Incidence and seroprevalence of tularaemia in Finland, 1995 to 2013 : regional epidemics with cyclic pattern

We studied the incidence of reported tularaemia by year and region and the prevalence of antibodies against Francisella tularensis in the adult general population in Finland. Moreover, we assessed the correlation between vole population cycles and human tularaemia outbreaks. The seroprevalence study made use of serum samples from a nationwide population-based health survey (Health 2000). The samples of 1,045 randomly selected persons, representative for the Finnish population in each region, were screened with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for the presence of IgG antibodies against F. tularensis, and positive results were further confirmed by immunoblotting. A serological response to F. tularensis was found in 2% (95% confidence interval: 1.1-3.5) of the population. Incidence and seroprevalence were highest in the same areas, and vole population peaks clearly preceded tularaemia outbreaks one year later.Peer reviewe

Sars - uusiin uhkiin valmistautumista

Kansainvälisen sars-epidemian aiheuttama toiminta Suomessa antoi arvokasta kokemusta odottamattomien tartuntatautiuhkien torjumiseen ja korosti varautumisen merkitystä. Uusien tutkimustietojen tulkinta, niiden käytäntöön soveltaminen, suositusten ja ohjeiden päivittäminen sekä viestintä yleisölle olivat suuri haaste viranomaisille. Avainasemassa ovat tapausten varhainen tunnistaminen torjuntatoimien käynnistämiseksi, tehokas koordinaatio terveydenhuollon organisaatioiden kesken, hyvä eri hallinnonalojen organisaatioiden välinen yhteistyö ja tiedottaminen. Tartuntatautien käytettävissä olevat resurssit ovat riittämättömiä laajan, äkillisen epidemian torjuntaan ja niitä tulisi selvästi vahvistaa olemassa olevissa organisaatioissa

Surveillance of endemic foci of tick-borne encephalitis in Finland 1995-2013 : evidence of emergence of new foci

The geographical risk areas for tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Finland remained the same until the beginning of the 21st century, but a considerable geographical expansion has been observed in the past 10 years. In order to support public health measures, the present study describes the number of laboratory-confirmed TBE cases and laboratory tests conducted and the associated trends by hospital district, with a particular emphasis on the suspected geographical risk areas. An additional investigation was conducted on 1,957 clinical serum samples throughout the country taken from patients with neurological symptoms to screen for undiagnosed TBE cases. This study identified new TBE foci in Finland, reflecting the spread of the disease into new areas. Even in the most endemic municipalities, transmission of TBE to humans occurred in very specific and often small foci. The number of antibody tests for TBE virus more than doubled (an increase by 105%) between 2007 and 2013. Analysis of the number of tests also revealed areas in which the awareness of clinicians may be suboptimal at present. However, it appears that underdiagnosis of neuroinvasive TBE is not common.Peer reviewe

Respiratory diphtheria in an asylum seeker from Afghanistan arriving to Finland via Sweden, December 2015

In December 2015, an asylum seeker originating from Afghanistan was diagnosed with respiratory diphtheria in Finland. He arrived in Finland from Sweden where he had already been clinically suspected and tested for diphtheria. Corynebacterium diphtheriae was confirmed in Sweden and shown to be genotypically and phenotypically toxigenic. The event highlights the importance of early case detection, rapid communication within the country and internationally as well as preparedness plans of diphtheria antitoxin availability.Peer reviewe

Writing Russia's future: paradigms, drivers, and scenarios

The development of prediction and forecasting in the social sciences over the past century and more is closely linked with developments in Russia. The Soviet collapse undermined confidence in predictive capabilities, and scenario planning emerged as the dominant future-oriented methodology in area studies, including the study of Russia. Scenarists anticipate multiple futures rather than predicting one. The approach is too rarely critiqued. Building on an account of Russia-related forecasting in the twentieth century, analysis of two decades of scenarios reveals uniform accounts which downplay the insights of experts and of social science theory alike

An outbreak of Streptococcus equi subspecies zooepidemicus associated with consumption of fresh goat cheese

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus equi subspecies zooepidemicus is a rare infection in humans associated with contact with horses or consumption of unpasteurized milk products. On October 23, 2003, the National Public Health Institute was alerted that within one week three persons had been admitted to Tampere University Central Hospital (TaYS) because of S. equi subsp. zooepidemicus septicaemia. All had consumed fresh goat cheese produced in a small-scale dairy located on a farm. We conducted an investigation to determine the source and the extent of the outbreak. METHODS: Cases were identified from the National Infectious Disease Register. Cases were persons with S. equi subsp. zooepidemicus isolated from a normally sterile site who had illness onset 15.9-31.10.2003. All cases were telephone interviewed by using a standard questionnaire and clinical information was extracted from patient charts. Environmental and food specimens included throat swabs from two persons working in the dairy, milk from goats and raw milk tank, cheeses made of unpasteurized milk, vaginal samples of goats, and borehole well water. The isolates were characterized by ribotyping and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). RESULTS: Seven persons met the case definition; six had septicaemia and one had purulent arthritis. Five were women; the median age was 70 years (range 54–93). None of the cases were immunocompromized and none died. Six cases were identified in TaYS, and one in another university hospital in southern Finland. All had eaten goat cheese produced on the implicated farm. S. equi subsp. zooepidemicus was isolated from throat swabs, fresh goat cheese, milk tank, and vaginal samples of one goat. All human and environmental strains were indistinguishable by ribotyping and PFGE. CONCLUSION: The outbreak was caused by goat cheese produced from unpasteurized milk. Outbreaks caused by S. equi subsp. zooepidemicus may not be detected if streptococcal strains are only typed to the group level. S. equi subsp. zooepidemicus may be a re-emerging disease if unpasteurized milk is increasingly used for food production. Facilities using unpasteurized milk should be carefully monitored to prevent this type of outbreaks