Fiscal Policy in the Transition to Monetary Union: a Structural VAR Model

In order to assess the effect of fiscal rules in Stage Three of EMU for France and Germany, Bayoumi and Eichengreen's (1992) structural VAR analysis is extended by including the general government financial surplus and conditioning by external variables. This allows a distinction between fiscal and monetary shocks. During the period 1972.1-1995.4, monetary policy has a significant effect on prices in both countries. On the other hand, fiscal shocks, whose effect on the deficit provides a measure of the " structural deficit ", only contribute to a significant part of the dynamics of output in Germany. For that period, they appear to have little effect in France. In addition, fiscal shocks are uncorrelated between the two countries, although it is difficult to conclude that it reflects purely idiosyncratic shocks rather than a different policy-mix.Budget deficit ; Ricardian equivalence ; Structural VAR ; EMU

Stress Testing and Corporate Finance.

The article contributes to the literature on financial fragility, studying how macro-economic shocks affect supply and demand in the corporate debt market. We take into account the effect of the competitive environment, as well as the risk level, measured by companies' default rate. The model is estimated using data from the Harmonised BACH database of corporate accounts for large euro area countries on the 1993-2005 period, in order to carry out an illustrative stress testing exercise. We measure the impact of large macroeconomic shocks (a severe recession and a sharp increase in oil prices) on the equilibrium in the debt market.Corporate Finance ; Debt ; Financial Fragility ; Stress Tests ; Panel Data.

Convergence in Household Credit Demand Across Euro Area Countries: Evidence from Panel Data.

The paper contributes to the literature on the convergence of financial systems in the euro area by estimating household credit demand in individual countries. Using the ARDL framework advocated notably by Pesaran et al. (1999), the paper provides evidence on the convergence of long run credit demand determinants (interest rates, investment and house prices) among the largest euro area countries, while short run dynamics remain heterogenous across countries. The paper also demonstrates that the equation uncovers demand rather than supply behaviour.Credit demand ; Panel cointegration ; Households ; Bank profitability.

Forecasting Inflation using Economic Indicators: the Case of France

In order to provide short run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for France, we assess the forecasting performance of a large set of economic indicators, individually and jointly, as well as using dynamic factor models. We run out-of-sample forecasts implementing the Stock and Watson (1999) methodology. It turns out that, according to usual statistical criteria, the combination of several indicators -in particular those derived from surveys- provides better results than dynamic factor models, even after pre-selection of the variables included in the panel. However, factors included in VAR models exhibit more stable forecasting performance over time. Results for HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy are very encouraging. Moreover, we show that it is possible to use forecasts on this indicator to project overall inflation.Inflation ; Out-of-sample forecast ; Indicator models ; Dynamic factor models ; Phillips curve.

Assessing Aggregate Comovements in France, Germany and Italy. Using a Non Stationary Factor Model of the Euro Area.

The objective of the paper is to investigate to what extent business cycles co-move in Germany, France and Italy. We use a large-scale database of non-stationary series for the euro area in order to assess the effect of common versus idiosyncratic shocks, as well as transitory versus permanent shocks, across countries over the 1980:Q1 to 2003:Q4 period. We apply the method-ology proposed by Bai (2004) and Bai and Ng (2004) to construct a coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle to which national developments appear to be increasingly correlated at business cycle frequencies (8 to 32 quarters), while more significant différences appear at lower frequencies which measures potential growth. The indicator is also shown to be related to extra euro area economic developments.Factor models ; Non-stationary panel data models ; Euro area business cycles.

Non-equilibrium states of a photon cavity pumped by an atomic beam

We consider a beam of two-level randomly excited atoms that pass one-by-one through a one-mode cavity. We show that in the case of an ideal cavity, i.e. no leaking of photons from the cavity, the pumping by the beam leads to an unlimited increase in the photon number in the cavity. We derive an expression for the mean photon number for all times. Taking into account leaking of the cavity, we prove that the mean photon number in the cavity stabilizes in time. The limiting state of the cavity in this case exists and it is independent of the initial state. We calculate the characteristic functional of this non-quasi-free non-equilibrium state. We also calculate the energy flux in both the ideal and open cavity and the entropy production for the ideal cavity.Comment: Corrected energy production calculations and made some changes to ease the readin

PEOPLES: A Tool to Measure Community Resilience

This paper provides a novel method to quantitatively assess the resilience of communities at various scales. The proposed method is based on the PEOPLES framework and it takes an indicator-based approach as an engine for its algorithm. PEOPLES is a framework for identifying the different resilience aspects of a community and for providing new ways through which the decision makers can take actions. The framework comprises seven dimensions, each of which is the collection of more specific components and indicators. Each indicator is accompanied with a measure allowing the analytical computation of the indicator’s performance. The measures are presented in the form of continuous functions whose parameters can be analytically obtained. The output of the methodology is a performance function for each indicator and a resilience index for the whole community. A case study illustrating the application of the methodology is also provided in the paper

Influence of Aerobic Exercise on Ghrelin-o-Acyltransferase in Normal Weight and Obese Adults: A Pilot Study

Please see the pdf version of the abstract

Random repeated interaction quantum systems

We consider a quantum system S interacting sequentially with independent systems E_m, m=1,2,... Before interacting, each E_m is in a possibly random state, and each interaction is characterized by an interaction time and an interaction operator, both possibly random. We prove that any initial state converges to an asymptotic state almost surely in the ergodic mean, provided the couplings satisfy a mild effectiveness condition. We analyze the macroscopic properties of the asymptotic state and show that it satisfies a second law of thermodynamics. We solve exactly a model in which S and all the E_m are spins: we find the exact asymptotic state, in case the interaction time, the temperature, and the excitation energies of the E_m vary randomly. We analyze a model in which S is a spin and the E_m are thermal fermion baths and obtain the asymptotic state by rigorous perturbation theory, for random interaction times varying slightly around a fixed mean, and for small values of a coupling constant.Comment: Statements of Theorem 1.5 and 3.2, and proof of Theorem 3.3 modified. To appear in Comm. Math. Phy

Analysis of the performance of a newly designed fermenter built in local materials for improvement of cocoa fermentation, in Ivory Coast

Objective: Cocoa beans fermentation is a spontaneous chemical process, traditionally done in box or in a heap. Equipment is also important in achieving the final chocolate aroma. This study analyzes the performances of a new-designed cocoa bean fermenter. Methodology and results: In this study, a new type of fermenter, a rotating cylindrical fermenter (RCF) has been designed in order to improve the fermentation of cocoa that remains difficult to control, because of the spontaneous nature of the microbiota. The performances of this fermenter was analyzed and compared to those of the traditional wooden box (TWB) fermenter that is commonly used on farm. During the 6 days of fermentation in both fermenters, the growth of microorganisms such as yeasts, lactic bacteria, acetic bacteria, bacillus and moulds as well as chemical and physical changes of the fermenting cocoa were monitored. The results showed that in the fermenter (RCF) a rapid temperature increase was observed in the course of the fermentation process with a temperature reaching 51°C within 73 h comparatively to the traditional fermenter (48°C within 118 h). This leads to a higher proportion of brown beans, indicator of a good fermentation from RCF fermenter as assessed by the cut test. This proportion was 94.44% for RCF and 85.88% for TWB. Moreover the optimization of heat generated in the RCF fermenter, allowed a normal browning (final gray level was 77 in both fermenters) despite modification of microbiota growth order (early growth of acetic bacteria and stunted growth of yeast in RCF, but not for TWB). Conclusion and application of results: The high proportions of brown beans in RCF suggest that this equipment is liable to contribute to the improvement of standard quality of cocoa beans