What will the cardiovascular disease slowdown cost? Modelling the impact of CVD trends on dementia, disability, and economic costs in England and Wales from 2020-2029.

To model the health impact and economic costs of the recent slowing of the historical decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence

Learning at large conferences:from the 'sage on the stage' to contemporary models of learning

AimTo explore and evaluate the affordances of a flipped classroom model applied to a research paper session within the professional development opportunity of a large conference setting.MethodAuthors were invited to present their research papers in a flipped classroom presentation format at two large, multi-national conferences. Before the session, authors and moderators met online to clarify features of the session, and preparation of the material. The research material was then posted online before the conference, to allow access by meeting attendees. During the sessions, moderators encouraged the audience to actively participate. An evaluation form was collected from the audience at the end of each session.ResultsParticipants found the session valuable, and appreciated the opportunity to engage in a meaningful dialogue with colleagues. However, the majority of the audience did not access the materials in advance. Lack of time, or technology-related issues were mentioned as potential challenges to such format.ConclusionIn the context of a large conference, a 'flipped session' format can facilitate active learning and a participatory culture of inquiry. However, to change the nature of how individuals learn collaboratively at large conferences means a change in the culture of continuous professional learning

Using Ownership as an Incentive

Agency theory is used to develop hypotheses regarding the effects of ownership proliferation on firm performance. The authors examine the effects of chief executive officer (CEO) ownership, executive team ownership, and all employee ownership in addition to the moderating effect of risk on firm survival and stock price. Firms with low CEO ownership outperform those with high levels of CEO ownership across all levels of risk, but the effect is most pronounced for low-risk firms. Executive team ownership is negatively related to firm performance, whereas ownership for all employees is positively associated with firm performance, particularly for higher risk firms.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/67316/2/10.1177_1059601199244003.pd

Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. METHODS: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention

The Fundamental Diagram of Pedestrian Movement Revisited

The empirical relation between density and velocity of pedestrian movement is not completely analyzed, particularly with regard to the `microscopic' causes which determine the relation at medium and high densities. The simplest system for the investigation of this dependency is the normal movement of pedestrians along a line (single-file movement). This article presents experimental results for this system under laboratory conditions and discusses the following observations: The data show a linear relation between the velocity and the inverse of the density, which can be regarded as the required length of one pedestrian to move. Furthermore we compare the results for the single-file movement with literature data for the movement in a plane. This comparison shows an unexpected conformance between the fundamental diagrams, indicating that lateral interference has negligible influence on the velocity-density relation at the density domain $1 m^{-2}<\rho<5 m^{-2}$. In addition we test a procedure for automatic recording of pedestrian flow characteristics. We present preliminary results on measurement range and accuracy of this method.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figure

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

OBJECTIVE: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland. METHODS: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted. RESULTS: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity

Gamma-rays from millisecond pulsars in Globular Clusters

Globular clusters (GCs) with their ages of the order of several billion years contain many final products of evolution of stars such as: neutron stars, white dwarfs and probably also black holes. These compact objects can be at present responsible for the acceleration of particles to relativistic energies. Therefore, gamma-ray emission is expected from GCs as a result of radiation processes occurring either in the inner magnetosperes of millisecond pulsars or in the vicinity of accreting neutron stars and white dwarfs or as a result of interaction of particles leaving the compact objects with the strong radiation field within the GC. Recently, GeV gamma-ray emission has been detected from several GCs by the new satellite observatory Fermi. Also Cherenkov telescopes reported interesting upper limits at the TeV energies which start to constrain the content of GCs. We review the results of these gamma-ray observations in the context of recent scenarios for their origin.Comment: 20 pages, 9 figures, will be published in Astrophysics and Space Science Series (Springer), eds. N. Rea and D.F. Torre

Observations of TeV photons at the Whipple Observatory

The Whipple Observatory 10 m gamma‐ray telescope has been used to search for TeV gamma‐ray emission from a number of objects. This paper reports observations of six galactic and three extragalactic objects using the Cherenkov image technique. With the introduction of a high‐resolution camera (1/4° pixel) in 1988, the Crab Nebula was detected at a significance level of 20 σ in 30 hours of on‐source observation. Upper limits at a fraction of the Crab flux are set for most of the other objects, based on the absence of any significant dc excess or periodic effect when an a priori Monte Carlo determined imaging selection criterion (the ‘‘azwidth cut’’) is employed. There are weak indications that one source, Hercules X‐1, may be an episodic emitter. The Whipple detection system will be improved shortly with the addition of a second reflector 11 m in diameter (GRANITE) for stereoscopic viewing of showers. The combination of the two‐reflector system should have a signal‐to‐noise advantage of 103 over a simple nonimaging Cherenkov receiver.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/87437/2/47_1.pd

High energy emission from microquasars

The microquasar phenomenon is associated with the production of jets by X-ray binaries and, as such, may be associated with the majority of such systems. In this chapter we briefly outline the associations, definite, probable, possible, and speculative, between such jets and X-ray, gamma-ray and particle emission.Comment: Contributing chapter to the book Cosmic Gamma-Ray Sources, K.S. Cheng and G.E. Romero (eds.), to be published by Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 2004. (19 pages

Socioeconomic position and the effect of energy labelling on consumer behaviour: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: There are well documented socioeconomic disparities in diet quality and obesity. Menu energy labelling is a public health policy designed to improve diet and reduce obesity. However, it is unclear whether the impact energy labelling has on consumer behaviour is socially equitable or differs based on socioeconomic position (SEP). Methods: Systematic review and meta-analysis of experimental (between-subjects) and pre-post implementation field studies examining the impact of menu energy labelling on energy content of food and/or drink selections in higher vs. lower SEP groups. Results: Seventeen studies were eligible for inclusion. Meta-analyses of 13 experimental studies that predominantly examined hypothetical food and drink choices showed that energy labelling tended to be associated with a small reduction in energy content of selections that did not differ based on participant SEP (X2(1) = 0.26, p = .610). Effect estimates for higher SEP SMD = 0.067 [95% CI: -0.092 to 0.226] and lower SEP SMD = 0.115 [95% CI: -0.006 to 0.237] were similar. A meta-analysis of 3 pre-post implementation studies of energy labelling in the real world showed that the effect energy labelling had on consumer behaviour did not significantly differ based on SEP (X2(1) = 0.22, p = .636). In higher SEP the effect was SMD = 0.032 [95% CI: -0.053 to 0.117] and in lower SEP the effect was SMD = -0.005 [95% CI: -0.051 to 0.041]. Conclusions: Overall there was no convincing evidence that the effect energy labelling has on consumer behaviour significantly differs based on SEP. Further research examining multiple indicators of SEP and quantifying the long-term effects of energy labelling on consumer behaviour in real-world settings is now required