A gravitational-wave standard siren measurement of the Hubble constant

On 17 August 2017, the Advanced LIGO 1 and Virgo 2 detectors observed the gravitational-wave event GW170817-a strong signal from the merger of a binary neutron-star system 3 . Less than two seconds after the merger, a γ-ray burst (GRB 170817A) was detected within a region of the sky consistent with the LIGO-Virgo-derived location of the gravitational-wave source 4-6 . This sky region was subsequently observed by optical astronomy facilities 7 , resulting in the identification 8-13 of an optical transient signal within about ten arcseconds of the galaxy NGC 4993. This detection of GW170817 in both gravitational waves and electromagnetic waves represents the first 'multi-messenger' astronomical observation. Such observations enable GW170817 to be used as a 'standard siren' 14-18 (meaning that the absolute distance to the source can be determined directly from the gravitational-wave measurements) to measure the Hubble constant. This quantity represents the local expansion rate of the Universe, sets the overall scale of the Universe and is of fundamental importance to cosmology. Here we report a measurement of the Hubble constant that combines the distance to the source inferred purely from the gravitational-wave signal with the recession velocity inferred from measurements of the redshift using the electromagnetic data. In contrast to previous measurements, ours does not require the use of a cosmic 'distance ladder' 19 : the gravitational-wave analysis can be used to estimate the luminosity distance out to cosmological scales directly, without the use of intermediate astronomical distance measurements. We determine the Hubble constant to be about 70 kilometres per second per megaparsec. This value is consistent with existing measurements 20,21 , while being completely independent of them. Additional standard siren measurements from future gravitationalwave sources will enable the Hubble constant to be constrained to high precision

AusTraits, a curated plant trait database for the Australian flora

We introduce the AusTraits database - a compilation of values of plant traits for taxa in the Australian flora (hereafter AusTraits). AusTraits synthesises data on 448 traits across 28,640 taxa from field campaigns, published literature, taxonomic monographs, and individual taxon descriptions. Traits vary in scope from physiological measures of performance (e.g. photosynthetic gas exchange, water-use efficiency) to morphological attributes (e.g. leaf area, seed mass, plant height) which link to aspects of ecological variation. AusTraits contains curated and harmonised individual- and species-level measurements coupled to, where available, contextual information on site properties and experimental conditions. This article provides information on version 3.0.2 of AusTraits which contains data for 997,808 trait-by-taxon combinations. We envision AusTraits as an ongoing collaborative initiative for easily archiving and sharing trait data, which also provides a template for other national or regional initiatives globally to fill persistent gaps in trait knowledge

Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK.

BACKGROUND: A safe and efficacious vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), if deployed with high coverage, could contribute to the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in a pooled interim analysis of four trials. METHODS: This analysis includes data from four ongoing blinded, randomised, controlled trials done across the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. Participants aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or control (meningococcal group A, C, W, and Y conjugate vaccine or saline). Participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group received two doses containing 5 × 1010 viral particles (standard dose; SD/SD cohort); a subset in the UK trial received a half dose as their first dose (low dose) and a standard dose as their second dose (LD/SD cohort). The primary efficacy analysis included symptomatic COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a nucleic acid amplification test-positive swab more than 14 days after a second dose of vaccine. Participants were analysed according to treatment received, with data cutoff on Nov 4, 2020. Vaccine efficacy was calculated as 1 - relative risk derived from a robust Poisson regression model adjusted for age. Studies are registered at ISRCTN89951424 and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606, NCT04400838, and NCT04444674. FINDINGS: Between April 23 and Nov 4, 2020, 23 848 participants were enrolled and 11 636 participants (7548 in the UK, 4088 in Brazil) were included in the interim primary efficacy analysis. In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0-75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455 in the control group) and in participants who received a low dose followed by a standard dose, efficacy was 90·0% (67·4-97·0; three [0·2%] of 1367 vs 30 [2·2%] of 1374; pinteraction=0·010). Overall vaccine efficacy across both groups was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8-80·6; 30 [0·5%] of 5807 vs 101 [1·7%] of 5829). From 21 days after the first dose, there were ten cases hospitalised for COVID-19, all in the control arm; two were classified as severe COVID-19, including one death. There were 74 341 person-months of safety follow-up (median 3·4 months, IQR 1·3-4·8): 175 severe adverse events occurred in 168 participants, 84 events in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 91 in the control group. Three events were classified as possibly related to a vaccine: one in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, one in the control group, and one in a participant who remains masked to group allocation. INTERPRETATION: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 has an acceptable safety profile and has been found to be efficacious against symptomatic COVID-19 in this interim analysis of ongoing clinical trials. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes for Health Research (NIHR), Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Lemann Foundation, Rede D'Or, Brava and Telles Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, and AstraZeneca

Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK

Background A safe and efficacious vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), if deployed with high coverage, could contribute to the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in a pooled interim analysis of four trials. Methods This analysis includes data from four ongoing blinded, randomised, controlled trials done across the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. Participants aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or control (meningococcal group A, C, W, and Y conjugate vaccine or saline). Participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group received two doses containing 5 × 1010 viral particles (standard dose; SD/SD cohort); a subset in the UK trial received a half dose as their first dose (low dose) and a standard dose as their second dose (LD/SD cohort). The primary efficacy analysis included symptomatic COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a nucleic acid amplification test-positive swab more than 14 days after a second dose of vaccine. Participants were analysed according to treatment received, with data cutoff on Nov 4, 2020. Vaccine efficacy was calculated as 1 - relative risk derived from a robust Poisson regression model adjusted for age. Studies are registered at ISRCTN89951424 and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606, NCT04400838, and NCT04444674. Findings Between April 23 and Nov 4, 2020, 23 848 participants were enrolled and 11 636 participants (7548 in the UK, 4088 in Brazil) were included in the interim primary efficacy analysis. In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0–75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455 in the control group) and in participants who received a low dose followed by a standard dose, efficacy was 90·0% (67·4–97·0; three [0·2%] of 1367 vs 30 [2·2%] of 1374; pinteraction=0·010). Overall vaccine efficacy across both groups was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8–80·6; 30 [0·5%] of 5807 vs 101 [1·7%] of 5829). From 21 days after the first dose, there were ten cases hospitalised for COVID-19, all in the control arm; two were classified as severe COVID-19, including one death. There were 74 341 person-months of safety follow-up (median 3·4 months, IQR 1·3–4·8): 175 severe adverse events occurred in 168 participants, 84 events in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 91 in the control group. Three events were classified as possibly related to a vaccine: one in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, one in the control group, and one in a participant who remains masked to group allocation. Interpretation ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 has an acceptable safety profile and has been found to be efficacious against symptomatic COVID-19 in this interim analysis of ongoing clinical trials

A gravitational-wave standard siren measurement of the Hubble constant

The detection of GW170817 (ref. 1) heralds the age of gravitational-wave multi-messenger astronomy, with the observations of gravitational-wave and electromagnetic emission from the same transient source. On 17 August 2017 the network of Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO)2 and Virgo3 detectors observed GW170817, a strong signal from the merger of a binary neutron-star system. Less than two seconds after the merger, a γ-ray burst event, GRB 170817A, was detected consistent with the LIGO–Virgo sky localization region4–6). The sky region was subsequently observed by optical astronomy facilities7, resulting in the identification of an optical transient signal within about 10 arcseconds of the galaxy NGC 4993 (refs 8–13). GW170817 can be used as a standard siren14–18, combining the distance inferred purely from the gravitational-wave signal with the recession velocity arising from the electromagnetic data to determine the Hubble constant. This quantity, representing the local expansion rate of the Universe, sets the overall scale of the Universe and is of fundamental importance to cosmology. Our measurements do not require any form of cosmic ‘distance ladder’19; the gravitational-wave analysis directly estimates the luminosity distance out to cosmological scales. Here we report H0 = kilometres per second per megaparsec, which is consistent with existing measurements20,21, while being completely independent of them

Exploring the interplay of biotic interactions and salinity stress in freshwater invertebrate assemblages:Reply to Chessman (2022)

International audienceThe most parsimonious interpretation of our experimental findings (Bray 2019; Kefford 2022) is that the effect of experimental increases in salinity on stream macroinvertebrate communities, was altered by organisms from a high-salinity site. This interpretation is consistent with long-established and widely accepted ecological and ecotoxicological theory. The suggestion (Chessman 2022) that the initial community was confounded, that it converged within the first week of the experiment and then diverged again, is neither parsimonious nor explicable by theory. All experiments are imperfect, yet we maintain that our experiment is informative, and we encourage other researchers to generate new data to inform on the degree to which abiotic and biotic effects of salinity, and other abiotic stressors, affect ecological communities

Understanding salt-tolerance and biota-stressor interactions in freshwater invertebrate communities

International audienceSalinity is increasing in many naturally fresh waters because of human activities, and there are concerns about the ecological effects of these increases. Salinity, as with any stressor, can affect organisms both directly and indirectly. In a previous study (Bray et al. 2019), we evaluated the relative importance of direct and indirect effects of increased salinity on stream invertebrates. Chessman (2021) criticised that study, claiming that the biotic treatments were confounded and did not directly test the hypotheses. Chessman (2021) also conducted a reanalysis of the data. We show through the analysis of new data that our biotic treatments were not confounded and that the conclusions made by Chessman (2021) were probably a consequence of the low statistical power of his analysis. Consequently, we argue that Chessman’s (2021) comments do not substantively alter the conclusions of our study, and we provide more evidence to support the conclusions of our previous publication. The study of biota–stressor interactions is increasingly relevant to a wide range of global ecosystems. There is a need to develop tractable experimental and survey designs that address these problems, and we identify further avenues for study of these complex issues

Fit models to koala data subsets

R code to fit the JAGS models (specified in ‘Model specification.R’) to subsets of the data defined by the number of pellets dropped around each tree (1,2,4 or 8). A summary of the model outputs are written to a csv file