7,884 research outputs found

    HIV with contact-tracing: a case study in Approximate Bayesian Computation

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    Missing data is a recurrent issue in epidemiology where the infection process may be partially observed. Approximate Bayesian Computation, an alternative to data imputation methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo integration, is proposed for making inference in epidemiological models. It is a likelihood-free method that relies exclusively on numerical simulations. ABC consists in computing a distance between simulated and observed summary statistics and weighting the simulations according to this distance. We propose an original extension of ABC to path-valued summary statistics, corresponding to the cumulated number of detections as a function of time. For a standard compartmental model with Suceptible, Infectious and Recovered individuals (SIR), we show that the posterior distributions obtained with ABC and MCMC are similar. In a refined SIR model well-suited to the HIV contact-tracing data in Cuba, we perform a comparison between ABC with full and binned detection times. For the Cuban data, we evaluate the efficiency of the detection system and predict the evolution of the HIV-AIDS disease. In particular, the percentage of undetected infectious individuals is found to be of the order of 40%

    An epidemiological study of diabetes mellitus in dogs attending first opinion practice in the UK

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    This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of canine diabetes mellitus (DM) in primary-care clinics in England, to identify risk factors associated with DM and to describe the survival of affected dogs. Cases of DM were identified within the electronic patient records of 89 small-animal practices. A nested case–control study identified risk factors for the diagnosis of DM using logistic regression models. Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyse variables associated with survival. Four-hundred and thirty-nine canine DM cases were identified, giving an apparent prevalence of 0.34% (95% CI 0.31% to 0.37%). Neutered males were at an increased risk of diabetes compared with entire males, whereas neutering was not associated with DM in females. When compared with crossbred dogs, Yorkshire terriers had increased odds, whereas German shepherd dogs and golden retrievers had lower odds of DM. Being classified as overweight and having a diagnosis of pancreatitis, hyperadrenocorticism or a urinary tract infection were positively associated with DM. Older dogs and those diagnosed with pancreatitis had a higher hazard of death, whereas insured and neutered dogs had a lower hazard. This study provides an objective assessment of canine DM using primary-care veterinary practice data and is a valuable benchmark against which future epidemiological trends in DM can be assessed and improvements in the management of DM in primary-care practice can be judged

    New beam for the CERN fixed target heavy ion programme

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    The physicists of the CERN heavy ion community (SPS fixed target physics) have requested lighter ions than the traditional lead ions, to scale their results and to check their theories. Studies have been carried out to investigate the behaviour of the ECR4 for the production of an indium beam. Stability problems and the low melting point of indium required some modifications to the oven power control system which will also benefit normal lead ion production. Present results of the source behaviour and the ion beam characteristics will be presented

    Using creative writing to explore facilitation skills in practice

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    Background: Facilitation skills are key to the effective use of practice development strategies. Students on a Masters in Practice Development and Innovation undertake a module on Facilitation skills which incorporates the use of a creative writing piece to explore facilitation. The aim of this article is to critically reflect on the use of creative writing within an assignment from the lecturer perspective. Critical Reflection: Rolfe et al (2001) model of reflection will be utilised to structure the reflections, considering the questions ‘What?’, ‘So What?’ and ‘Now What?’. This will discuss the concerns about the assessment method, student thoughts, relationship to practice development and evidence of effectiveness of the strategy. Examples of creative writing from the students will be used to demonstrate the diversity of the approach. Ethics: All students have given permission for their work to be included Discussion: Using creative writing can be freeing for students as they can use their voice to explore a topic. For the lecturer courage is needed to facilitate this expression but is rewarding as links to the principles of practice development to embed new ways of working. Important within the process is the need to give students ‘permission’ to utilise a non-traditional style of writing and the lecturer may benefit from practising the technique themselves to feel comfortable with the creative writing strategy. Conclusion: Creative writing enabled an opportunity to explore facilitation in different ways and relate to different aspects of real and imagined life. This paper shows that creative writing can be used successfully by students to engage in novel ways of thinking. However, future actions identify the importance of guidance regarding relevance to academia and ensuring the lecturer is familiar with the aim and techniques of the process when using it for Masters level assessment

    Epidemiology of diabetes mellitus among 193,435 cats attending primary-care veterinary practices in England

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    BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a common endocrine disease of cats. The prevalence of DM in cats in England is not well‐defined. HYPOTHESIS/OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence and identify risk factors for DM in a large population of cats attending primary‐care practices. ANIMALS: A cohort of 193,563 cats in the VetCompass Programme attending 118 primary‐care practices in England. METHODS: Cross‐sectional analysis of cohort clinical data. Data were extracted covering September 1st 2009 and August 31st 2014. Period prevalence of DM was calculated. Associations between risk factors and DM were assessed using logistic regression modelling. RESULTS: Of 1,128 DM cases were identified among 194,563 cats (period prevalence 0.58%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54–0.61). Multivariable modelling indicated that Tonkinese (OR 4.1; 95% CI 1.8–9.6; P = .001), Norwegian Forest (odds ratio [OR] 3.5; 95% CI 1.3–9.6; P = .001) and Burmese (OR 3.0; 95% CI 2.0–4.4; P < .001) cats had increased odds of DM compared with crossbred cats. DM odds increased as bodyweight categories increased above 4 kg (P < .001), as cats aged beyond 6 years old (P < .001) and in insured cats (OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.6–2.4; P < .001) but sex was not significantly associated with DM. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE: Diabetes mellitus is an important component of the primary‐care practice caseload with 1‐in‐200 cats affected. An increased risk of DM in certain cat breeds supports a genetic predisposition. These results can guide future research and preventative healthcare

    Monte Carlo Simulation of Proton Upsets in Xilinx Virtex-II FPGA Using a Position Dependent Q(sub crit) with PROPSET

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    This paper describes new software simulation code for predicting single event upset data from measured heavy ion data, using methods, code, and algorithms already reported in the open literature. The measured data that is used to compare against the results of this new simulation code has also been reported in the open literature (R. Koga, et al). The new code is not provided as part of this paper, only the methodology used in generating the code. This paper presents results of basic research, not design-to information, and is representative of other papers reported in the open literature (see paper references). Therefore, the content of this paper is suitable for being made publicly available at the IEEE conference and the resulting IEEE journal

    Time-Independent Discrete Gaussian Sampling for Post-Quantum Cryptography

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