A Guide to Global Population Projections

Interdisciplinary studies that draw on long-term, global population projections often make limited use of projection results, due at least in part to the historically opaque nature of the projection process. We present a guide to such projections aimed at researchers and educators who would benefit from putting them to greater use. Drawing on new practices and new thinking on uncertainty, methodology, and the likely future courses of fertility and life expectancy, we discuss who makes projections and how, and the key assumptions upon which they are based. We also compare methodology and recent results from prominent institutions and provide a guide to other sources of demographic information, pointers to projection results, and an entry point to key literature in the field.forecasting, population projections, projection methodology, uncertainty

Evaluating Global Warming Potentials as Historical Temperature Proxies: an application of ACC2 Inverse Calculation

Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) are evaluated as proxies of the historical temperature by applying them to convert historical CH4 and N2O emissions to equivalent CO2 emissions. Our GWP analysis is based on the historical Earth system evolution obtained from the inverse calculation for the Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Cycle, and Climate Model (ACC2). Indices higher than the Kyoto GWPs are required to reproduce the historical temperature. The GWP for N2O, in particular, does not approximate the historical temperature with any time horizon because the GWP definition and calculations assume a background system different from the ACC2 inversion results. In addition, indices have to be progressively updated upon the acquisition of new measurements and/or the change in our understanding on the Earth system processes.global warming potentials

Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics

This report describes results of the research project on "Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics". The overall objective of this project was to improve projections of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions by taking into account demographic factors currently not incorporated in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of global climate change. We proposed to examine the potential magnitude of effects on energy demand of changes in the composition of populations by household characteristics for three countries: the U.S., China, and Indonesia. For each country, we planned to analyze household energy use survey data to estimate relationships between household characteristics and energy use; develop a new set of detailed household projections for each country; and combine these analyses to produce new projections of energy demand illustrating the potential importance of consideration of households

Implementation of KRoC on analog devices' "SHARC" DSP

This paper summarises the experiences gained at the Control Laboratory of the University of Twente in porting the Kent Retargetable occam Compiler -KroC -to the Analog Devices' ADSP21060 SHARC Digital Signal Processor. The choice of porting the KRoC to the DSP processor was in our view both a challenge and an absolute necessity because DSP processors are an important ingredient in modern day control systems. Currently, our implementation contains the most important occam primitives such as channel communication, PAR, ALT, and most of the integer arithmatic. Furthermore, a basic kernel was realised, providing channel-communication based scheduling only. This porting process, using quite straight-forward modifications of the SPARC KRoC-translator, was done within six weeks. A representative benchmark was constructed, showing that the 33Mhz SHARC-KRoC implementation is 40% faster than the the 25Mhz T800 using the INMOS D7205 Toolset

Metrics for Aggregating the Climate Effect of Different Emissions: A Unifying Framework. ESRI WP257, September 2008

Multi-gas approaches to climate change policies require a metric establishing “equivalences” among emissions of various species. Climate scientists and economists have proposed four classes of such metrics and debated their relative merits. We present a unifying framework that clarifies the relationships among them. We show that the Global Warming Potential, used in international law to compare greenhouse gases, is a special case of the Global Damage Potential, assuming (1) a finite time horizon, (2) a zero discount rate, (3) constant atmospheric concentrations, and (4) impacts that are proportional to radiactive forcing. We show that the Global Temperature change Potential is a special case of the Global Cost Potential, assuming (1) no induced technological change, and (2) a short-lived capital stock. We also show that the Global Cost Potential is a special case of the Global Damage Potential, assuming (1) zero damages below a threshold and (2) infinite damage after a threshold. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change uses the Global Warming Potential, a simplified cost-benefit concept, even though the UNFCCC frames climate policy as a cost-effectiveness problem and should therefore use the Global Cost Potential or its simplification, the Global Temperature Potential

Learning and climate change

Learning – i.e. the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty – plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductions, analyses of how new information could affect the prospects for reaching and maintaining political agreements and for adapting to climate change, and explorations of how learning could lead us astray rather than closer to the truth. Despite the diversity of this new work, a clear consensus on a central point is that the prospect of learning does not support the postponement of emissions reductions today.Learning; Uncertainty; Climate change; Decision analysis

PARALLEL ALGORITHM FOR CALCULATING GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM IN MULTIREGION ECONOMIC GROWTH MODELS

We develop and analyze a parallel algorithm for computing a solution in a multiregion dynamic general equilibrium model. The algorithm is based on an iterative method of the Gauss–Seidel type and exploits a special block structure of the model. Calculation of prices and input-output ratios in production for different time steps is carried out in parallel. We implement the parallel algorithm using the OpenMP interface for systems with shared memory. The efficiency of the algorithm is studied with the numbers of cores varying in the full range from one to the number of time steps of the model

Second-generation nitazoxanide derivatives: thiazolides are effective inhibitors of the influenza A virus

Aim: The only small molecule drugs currently available for treatment of influenza A virus (IAV) are M2 ion channel blockers and sialidase inhibitors. The prototype thiazolide, nitazoxanide, has successfully completed Phase III clinical trials against acute uncomplicated influenza. Results: We report the activity of seventeen thiazolide analogs against A/PuertoRico/8/1934(H1N1), a laboratory-adapted strain of the H1N1 subtype of IAV, in a cell culture-based assay. A total of eight analogs showed IC50s in the range of 0.14–5.0 μM. Additionally a quantitative structure–property relationship study showed high correlation between experimental and predicted activity based on a molecular descriptor set. Conclusion: A range of thiazolides show useful activity against an H1N1 strain of IAV. Further evaluation of these molecules as potential new small molecule therapies is justified